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Cooler & Less Humid

I haven’t gone out to check the analog rain gauge yet (as of 6 am).  My digital gauge says we received .34 of an inch which generally reads a little high.  CocoRaHS requires the four-inch analog tube gauge to give a more accurate reading.

Yesterday’s high was 87° and the low was 70°.  Dewpoints were in the low 70s.

Northwest winds behind a cold front will usher in cooler and less humid conditions today with highs in the 70s. After a sunny and pleasant Monday, our next chance of showers and storms returns for late Monday night and Tuesday.


Day Three SPC Outlook

 


NWS Forecast

Today
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7 am and 8 am. Patchy fog between 7 am and 8 am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. West northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west-northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers between 2 am and 5 am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 am. Mostly clear, with a low of around 63. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 66. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers before 8 am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 52.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 86.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 70.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.

Weather History

1960: A tornado struck north of Carson City in Montcalm County, damaging or destroying several farm buildings and four mobile homes.

1870: An extreme heat wave began and lasted through the end of June. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s prevailed most of that time. Lansing set their all-time high for June of 99 degrees on the 25th.

On June 23, 2010, two tornadoes hit far Southeast Michigan during the evening hours. The first was a 3.7-mile-long EF0 tornado just southeast of Saline. The other tornado was an EF1 that was on the ground for 11.5 miles across Northern Monroe County, hitting the community of Scofield. The EF1 damage with winds estimated at 90 MPH was found near Tuttle Hill Rd in London Township where a roof was torn off of a pole barn and substantial tree damage was noted.

Also on June 23, 1997, 1.75 inch hail was reported in Laingsburg (Shiawassee County). This was the largest reported hail in our County Warning Area during the year 1997.


Forecast Discussion

-Dry and cooler

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from Traverse
City to Chicago. Radar showed rain falling south of I-96 ahead of
the front and the back edge of the precipitation moving across the
lakeshore.

Showers will exit the southeast cwa by 10am leading to dry weather
the rest of the day. IR loop shows extensive cloudiness west
through Wisconsin and HREF cloud progs point toward cloudy
conditions through early afternoon. Late in the day high pressure
will nose into the region and we`ll start to see some breaks in
the clouds which will set us up for a partly cloudy night.

H8 temps will fall to around 10c today which should result in high
temperatures in the lower 70s near US-10 to upper 70s near I-94.
Dewpoints in the lower 60s will still create humid conditions, but
it won`t feel as humid as the last several days.

Under partly cloudy skies tonight, temperatures will fall into
the 50s...a welcome relief from the very mild mid 70s earlier in
the week.

High pressure will settle over the region Monday yielding sunny
skies, less humid conditions and highs in the lower 80s.

-Strong storms possible late Monday night and Tuesday

Interesting summertime MCS pattern shaping up for Monday night, with
returning H8 20C thermal ridge and 50 kt low level jet aimed into
Wisconsin. Guidance indicates nocturnal tstms developing to our
northwest once mid level cap breaks then deep layer thickness progs
would suggest they`ll propagate southeast our way late at night into
early Tuesday, along the incoming instability gradient.

Should this develop into a mature MCS, it is possible we could see
some damaging winds crossing Lk MI toward dawn Tuesday. Those tstms
should weaken/exit by Noon, but new convective development looks
possible along the cold front in the late afternoon/evening Tuesday,
with guidance currently favoring a west-east oriented cluster of
storms near I-94.

-Dry Wednesday/Thursday; storm chances return Friday/Saturday

We dry out behind the cold front on Wednesday with cooler and drier
air flowing in from the north, then high pressure delivers fine
weather on Thursday. Guidance has been trending faster in the
departure of that sfc high, with tstm chances returning already on
Friday as the warm front lifts back north again. Storminess persists
into Saturday before the next cold front swings through and dries
things out for Sunday.
newest oldest
Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

A bit of “pop-up” rain from the North?…we’ll take take every drop.

INDY
INDY

Feels like Fall outside what a difference a cold front makes we will take it along with shorter days now! The great turn is onnnnnnnnnnnnnnn..INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Rock on Indy!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Another 1.25 inches of rain last night for a weekly total of around 3.75 inches! Incredible rainfall! WOW!!

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 87/70 there was 0.35” of rainfall the highest wind gust was 37 MPH out of the NW the sun was out 13% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high was 98 in 1923 that year also had the warmest low of 73. The record low of 38 was in 1918 and the coldest high was 55 in 1972. The record rainfall of 3.18” fell in 1989.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

Gosh, so nice to walk out and not have the breath sucked out of you because of the humidity. Happy Sunday!!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Rock on and I could not agree more!!!

Slim

Had a good rain fall last night here in MBY I recorded 0.90″ of rain. It is much cooler and I now have a temperature of 67 with some mist in the air.
Slim

bernie
bernie

My gauge near Hamilton has .6″, all coming last night. So nice to wake up to some refreshing cool air and open up the house! Looks like this week will be a bit of a roller coaster with respects to heat and precip, but definitely nice to have the break from the heat wave. Have a restful Sunday everyone : )

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Rock on Bernie!