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Thunderstorm Watch

We have a thunderstorm watch until 9 am for:

 MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGAN              ANTRIM              BARRY
BENZIE               CLARE               CLINTON
CRAWFORD             EATON               GRAND TRAVERSE
GRATIOT              INGHAM              IONIA
ISABELLA             KALKASKA            KENT
LAKE                 LEELANAU            MANISTEE
MASON                MECOSTA             MISSAUKEE
MONTCALM             MUSKEGON            NEWAYGO
OCEANA               OSCEOLA             OTTAWA
ROSCOMMON            WEXFORD

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into West Michigan early
this morning. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary
hazards. Additional strong thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening.

Forecast Discussion

- Early Morning Potential for Severe Thunderstorms

Much of the forecast remains unchanged while we monitor the
cluster of storms currently tracking through northern Wisconsin
that will arrive in lower Michigan within a few hours. As
expected, these storms continue to evolve into a MCS/squall line
with a projected time of arrival into West Michigan around 4 to
6am.

This will largely be a game of monitoring our environment to
estimate the persistence of storms and whether they decay or
prevail. Within the Enhanced Risk upstream of lower Michigan,
these storms are thriving and will evolve in an environment with
3000- 5000J/kg MUCAPE and 50+ knots of Bulk Shear. As the surface
low progresses further east, warm and moist advection will surge
ahead of the storms supporting some ongoing strength. We will not
be as unstable as areas to our west, but a favorable kinematic
environment will support ongoing convection as storms move onshore
and progress east through mid morning. Storms will gradually
enter a weakening stage the further east they progress into lower
Michigan. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern as
storms move onshore this morning, but some hail may also occur.

- Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon

The potential for thunderstorms or new convection late tonight
will be dependent on evolution of storms this morning. That is to
say, wherever the frontal boundary sets up is where the best
chance for renewed convection will occur. The strong low- level
jet will weaken as it pivots further south late this morning to
early afternoon, but instability rebounds and may support the risk
for renewed thunderstorms with a damaging wind gust and hail
potential. The main threat area will be near and south of I-96.

- Additional Showers Early Wednesday

Another trough and cold front will sweep through the area
Wednesday morning bringing chance for showers during the first
half of the day. High pressure will fill in during the second half
of the day and into Thursday.
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Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

ADA – power went out as the storm arrived and was restored by 2pm. I have a 40 foot tree trunk in the yard, and the chainsaw ready for tomorrow. Very thankful the gust front came from the North.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Sorry that happened, but glad that it wasn’t worse.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)
Slim

The winds here in Walker were around 40 to 50 MPH it was the most wind I have had here in Grand Rapids if many years. A lot of cloud to cloud lightning at the start then a lot of wind and heavy rain no hail the a lot of loud cloud to ground lightning after the wind. Here in MBY there are just a few branches down. Only lost power for brief time. I had 0.96″ of rain in the gauge not sure how much was blowen past the gauge. One of the more impressive storms in a long… Read more »

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I love it – another 1.2 inches of rain! That makes 5.2 inches in the last 9 days! Drought? What drought?

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

My friend in montague has no power. Think things are a bit more rough up in Muskegon County

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Several outages and branches down around here. Not as bad as the August 24th storms from last year… I’d say 50mph winds here. Very nearby (within a mile or so) there appears to have been much stronger winds

*SS*
*SS*

Is this the last of the storms today?

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Good question. The NWS says that storms may reappear this afternoon, but our local TV met this morning seemed to downplay the possibility.

*SS*
*SS*

I just saw that here as well… They said we are in the yellow for this afternoon…but depends how much these storms sucked the energy out of the atmosphere or if it can destabilize again.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Hard to say, because you do not list your location in your name?

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I would say we did not reach severe winds at my house. The shelf cloud was impressive though. Thoughts with the people with damage and without power.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Same here. Cool clouds but nowhere near severe levels. Consumers outage map shows 120K customers without power. 🙁

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

ADA – Surprised by the continuing lightning here. Trying to check tree damage, but the “bolts” just keep landing.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a storm!

Slim

Here in MBY there was a period of strong winds that I would guess at 40 to 50MPH range. there was a lot of cloud to cloud lightning at the front end of the storm but not a lot of thunder. That has changed at the backend of the storm no wind now but a lot of cloud to ground lightning and a lot of loud thunder at this time. The power is still on here and I do not see any damage here but the winds were sure strong enough to cause damage for sure.
Slim

Slim

Still very dark with a lot of strong lightning and thunder at this time the winds are now calm
Slim

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Hold on…good luck everbody

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

ADA – quite a punch. Power out. Trees/branches down. No hail. No flooding rainfall.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

NWS is also saying 80 mph wind gusts are possible with some of these storms. Wake up people, and batten down the hatches!