Haven’t looked at the data on who got what yesterday – feel free to chime in on your local conditions. We ended up with 2.21 inches of rain with a light glaze of freezing rain with a trace of snow in Otsego.
Keep in mind the NWS uses computer models, what they see coming on the radar and their own judgement as to what they think will happen. The actuality of what happens can often differ due to all the forces that nature can throw at them especially with the great lakes coming into play. They did do a good job with their rainfall forecast.
A couple days ago I posted a comment and article in regards to wishcasting and using model data which can be miss leading. Models can have a hard time forecasting precipitation especially with temps fluctuating. I generally disregard these and use current data from the NWS as they are the main means of getting information. Sure, it is nice to get excited (or not) about impending snowfall however the let down can lead to disappointment. This is a weather service and lots of people come to look at the blog and I don’t want to mislead them with snowfall maps which have been mainly inaccurate this season. So a disclaimer should be made at this point that they are not official and are prone to failure.
We will have a tranquil day today though seasonably cold. The is another chance of snow or freezing drizzle overnight which may cause slick conditions for the Monday morning commute. We will then have a warming trend through midweek which will melt away the snow and ice…
It’s me, new phone test.
I am so grateful we did not lose our power. Twice yesterday evening they dimmed. We got the flashlights out and our lantern that runs on batteries. I am glad we didn’t have to use them. About 5 years ago we went 4 days with no lights or heat. Not fun.
I hate to say it, but I was actually looking forward to having a (short) power outage at my house, just to get the kids off of their devices and play board games for a few hours! I miss those days…
Otherwise snow/sleet totals here were in line with what everyone else has been reporting.
btw… I’m curious as to why our posts do not fall in chronological order? Anybody shed light on that?
Mine show up in order. My grandkids ages 11 to 20 love to play board games. Just have them turn off all the devices during certain times. They might see how much fun they can have.
Just thanking God that the road crews were able to keep the roads in great shape yesterday and there were very few power outages! Well good thing is now the roads are clear so people that actually do enjoy snow can drive north and play in it!!
I agree with Wild Bill, I trust Slim & MV more than a lot of the meteorologists! Seems that the meteorologists get caught up in the hype too much!
I give Rocky credit this morning, he’s owning up to his miss on this one!
Rock on Andy! I will admit when I wrong! I wish other people would do the same! Certain people are so obsessed with themselves and with power they will never admit when they are wrong! This is arrogant and ignorant!
As a review every single station and met got this one wrong! Mother Nature gets the final say every time! I have a great idea get outside and enjoy winter instead of complaining about the forecast! Crystal Mt here I come baby!
As a “snow fighter” lol as my 7 year old son calls me, I’m so glad they were off on this. My staff and I tried to plan for the worse the last few days and being in the snowplowing Industry anytime we get lots of ice and then snow on top it just really makes our job almost impossible to perform well for our customers.. That’s why I love this site, mv and slim you guys always seem to out perform our local weather people and seem to have good info without all the hype that the rest put… Read more »
On the miss that happened for this weekend storm I would like to point out as I have stated before way too much is put into the computer models. On the plus side they did get the total precipitation right just not good as to the timing of the temperature drop. The low did not get all that deep so there was not a much wind as was in the forecast. I an still waiting to see how the models handle a true big storm event like the 1978, 1967 or in the ice storm category 1976. The biggest recent… Read more »
Heading to Boyne Mountain for a mid Winter break going to see some real snow should be a beautiful drive with the fresh snow on the ground we survived the storm what a great 3 days of tracking loved it ….Have a great Sunday I will be checking in from the great white North INDY
Have a fun and safe trip
Slim
Awesome and we are heading to Chrystal Mt for a day trip! It is a winter wonderland out there! Later people, get outside and enjoy winter!!
I think it was Acculess weather that tried (started) naming winter storms. Well I have a great name for the 1st winter storms of 2020. Winter Storm Not!! Here at Grand Rapids Winter Storm Not! dropped a record 2.02″ of rain there was some ice but mostly on trees and cars ect the roads were for the most part just wet. The roads did get some sleet and ice on them after dark. The total amount of sleet and snow was 0.4″ The high during the event was 48 and the low was 24. At this time I have less… Read more »
I like it! Winter storm NOT is perfect! What a joke of a storm!
Slim or MV, how is sleet officially measured? I mean do they add it to the rainfall totals or snow totals?
Mostly it will go into the “snow fall” total. yesterday Grand Rapids set a new rain fall record of 2.02″ and there was a reported 0.4″ of snow fall. Here at my house there is just under a half inch of white stuff on the ground. All this from Winter Storm Not!
Slim
Well that may have honestly been the least amount of “Winter” weather I have ever seen come out of a Winter Storm Warning. We ended up with 2.06” of rain, very little sleet, and at most a dusting of snow. There was a glaze of ice on the trees, but I don’t know if it even amounted to a tenth of an inch. Thankfully no power outages or trees down around here, so that’s always good news. Halfway through January and we continue to measure snow by tenths instead of inches, incredible. Rather than go outside and measure the snow… Read more »
Haha the worst part is that I’ve seen no owning up to horrible predictions today by the NWS, Wood, or even Bill Steffen who all hyped the epic storm and called for big accumulating snow.
I actually agree with you Wood and the NWS rarely admit they ever make a mistake or a horrible forecast. They usually make excuses?
GR got a whopping 0.4” of snow yesterday even though Rocky’s RBD model said 3-6”, Indy predicted 11” and a blizzard, and countless garbage maps showing over a foot of new snow were posted on here. Hopefully this is a lesson for two on here.
Every single model did a horrible job with this storm! Even the RDB was off! You know it is bad when the normally very reliable RDB is a little off! This brings the accuracy rate down to 85%! Not bad.
RBD = garbage. I told you yesterday morning that many models had GR getting little or no snow but you didn’t listen.
We dodged a bullet, big time. Roads aren’t horrible and our ground is not even covered with sleet/snow. Very few power outages. Flooding is the biggest issue in this area, with some road closures.
The NWS did a fine job with the track and timing of the storm. Of course, it didn’t quite play out exactly as expected. They are not perfect but they do an excellent job and continue to improve.
Yesterday’s storm was HISTORIC and epic. A historic fail that is! One of the worst forecasts ever! On a side note we should be very thankful we did not see a major ice storm with thousands of power outages!