This summer has been relatively pleasant this year. With the exception of the Canadian smoke, we have been spared of most of the heat being experienced coming from the south and southwest. Today will be sunny, with a high near 88 with heat index values as high as 96. We will have a south wind of 5 to 9 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Welcome to the dog days of summer!
Hurricane Updates
1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
recent satellite wind data indicate the surface circulation is
elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions
still appear generally favorable for development, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while
it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to
strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected.
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
2. Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
An area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this
week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean during the
next couple of days, then turn northward and move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles
during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Straits of Florida and
the southern Florida peninsula will move into the Gulf of Mexico
later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form
early this week. Some slow development of this system could occur
thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a
tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of
Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week
while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located near the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula.
1. South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America or southern Mexico during the middle part of the
week. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur
while it moves slowly toward the northwest or north-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
U.S.A and Global Events for August 20th
1886: The 1886 Indianola Hurricane destroyed the town of Indianola, Texas, and as such had a significant impact on the history and economic development of Texas. The storm ended the rivalry between Galveston and Indianola as the chief port of Texas. With the abandonment of Indianola and the unwillingness of the former residents to rebuild close to shore, Galveston became the essential Texan port until the 1900 Galveston Hurricane, which led to the rise of Houston as a major port. It was the fifth hurricane of the 1886 Atlantic hurricane season and one of the most intense hurricanes ever to hit the United States.
1910: The Great Fire of 1910 finally came to an end in Idaho. A record dry August fueled 1736 fires that burned three million acres destroying six billion board feet of timber. The fires claimed the lives of 85 persons, 78 of whom were firefighters, and consumed the entire town of Wallace. The smoke spread a third of the way around the world, producing dark days in the U.S. and Canada. The forest fires prompted federal fire protection laws.
1928: A tornado estimated at F4 intensity initially touched down in Winnebago County, Iowa, moved to Freeborn County, Minnesota, and hit the south side of Austin, MN. Five of the six deaths were in Austin with 60 injuries.
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 0 grrForecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Early this morning, a cold front extends from a low over Lake Superior southwest across Wisconsin. This front will move to a Saginaw Bay to AZO line by 00z tonight. Ahead of the front, we`re going to see moisture pool and sfc dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid 70s. When combined with highs in the mid 80s, heat indices will climb into the mid to upper 90s, which will be quite a chance from what we`ve had the past several days. There isn`t any upper support for precipitation development along the front and forecast soundings show abundant dry air below 600 mb so the grids will remain dry. Dewpoints will fall to around 60 overnight as northeast winds behind the front advect in drier air from Ontario. Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday with highs several degrees cooler than today. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) -- Showers and storms possible Tuesday High pressure measuring around 600 dam, centered over the Plains will dominate the weather pattern during the week ahead. The main weather concern will be the interaction of Hurricane Hilary and this upper level high. Current track of Hurricane Hilary will take it northward up the California coast with latest ensembles showing significant anamolous advection of specific humidity through the upper atmosphere. This moisture transfer will go up and around the "ring of fire", or high pressure system, and filter its way down through the upper Great Lakes and through lower Michigan Monday night into Tuesday. The models do show a short wave trough that could have enough instability that coupled with the moisture to allow for a chance for showers and storms Tuesday. This is slightly quicker then previous model runs. Though there remains some disparity in timing, strength and whether or not there will be enough instability for the weather to occur. -- Return of Summer temps late this week The hot temperatures at 850 mb of will shift to the southwest as the high pressure retrogrades and weakens. Warm air advection will then surge through the area as upwards of +25 to +30 C air moves over southern lower. This could translate to high in the 90s (F) for Thursday. Following this there remains a continued signal for a strong upper level wave bringing another chance for showers cooler air mass rs/storms Friday and a cool/dry air mass potentially next weekend.
Just back from a walk, and it was a short one, was not expecting that kind of heat. Dew point of 76 and a heat index just under 100?!
I had no idea it was going to be this humid today. Pretty uncomfortable out there
Way too humid! Ridiculous!
Thankfully the heat this week will be very short lived! Fantastic and Incredible and Rock n Roll will never die!!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/51. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 88% of the possible time. There was 1 HDD and 0 CDD the highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1947 and the record low of 43 was set in 1992. The record rain fall of 2.34” fell in 2007. Last year the H/L was 79/63 and there was 0.35” of rain fall. It looks to be very warm and humid today for… Read more »