We have another active day in store for SW Michigan with showers and storms moving in throughout the day, tonight and tomorrow morning. We have a slight risk those storms may become severe for the southern half of the state. There is an enhanced risk to our west through southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, and Iowa.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected today through tonight. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out through mid-afternoon, with a better chance for severe weather late this afternoon through late this evening. Damaging winds would be the main threat in any severe storms with hail, and localized flooding also possible.
Another Air Quality Action Day is in effect for Friday for Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, and Van Buren Counties. This is due to the elevated levels of ozone expected.
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 28 grrU.S.A and Global Events for July 28th:
1898: A severe thunderstorm produced considerable hail (some stones to 11 ounces) in Chicago, Illinois business district. Some people were hurt, not by hail, but by several hundred runaway horses spooked by the hailstones.
1976: At 3:42 AM, an earthquake measuring between 7.8 and 8.2 magnitudes on the Richter scale flattens Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city with a population of about one million people. An estimated 242,000 people in Tangshan and surrounding areas were killed, making the earthquake one of the deadliest in recorded history, surpassed only by the 300,000 who died in the Calcutta earthquake in 1737, and the 830,000 thought to have perished in China’s Shaanxi province in 1556. Click HERE for more information from the History Channel.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 406 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Focus of the short term is very much on convective trends, the threat for severe storms and the possibility of heavy rain. As of 345 am, we have as expected showers and a few storms pressing into Western Lower Michigan. These storms are largely in decaying fashion as outflows are outrunning the activity in spots. MUCAPE ranges from 2,000 j/kg over Lake Michigan to only 500 j/kg in our eastern CWA. So, as storms move eastward a general weakening trend should occur and we have seen this over the last few hours. Cannot rule out a few strong storms through daybreak, but the focus is really on later today. Aloft, zonal flow remains in place across the northern tier of the country with substantial ridging still in place across the Southern U.S. Multiple upstream shortwaves, on in the Dakotas this morning and one further west in Idaho will zip to the east today and potentially become an impetus for storm development this afternoon and evening. Initiation however is not very clear as convection ongoing now will also modulate storms later today. Mesoscale convective vorts may also play a role in how convective activity evolves today. The ongoing activity could actually aid severe convection later today, in that it may tend to put a lid on further development this morning and allow more explosive development this afternoon. At this time, what we expect is some scattered activity to continue into the morning hours and eventually end in the mid morning to midday hours. Additional development is then expected this afternoon potentially over Southeast Lower Michigan in the afternoon (2-5pm edt) and over Wisconsin and Illinois a bit later in the afternoon and early evening (5-8pm edt). It is the storms upstream that may pose the greater risk today. These storms would affect the GRR forecast area largely between 800pm and 200am. We will have a surface boundary sagging south through the forecast area at this time which may become another trigger point for convection. MUCAPE values will likely exceed 3000 j/kg with a mid level jet max around 40 knots. Surface dew points in the low to mid 70s will aid in the large MUCAPE values. Damaging winds look to be the main threat today with HREF max gust progs showing multiple swaths of severe wind moving through the Southern Great Lakes. This is due to the individual CAMs struggling to nail down the evolution/morphology of the event. The take away though is that they are all showing some level of significant wind. Machine learning CAMs show wind as the primary threat with hail and tornadoes being little to no threat today. The focus is on wind gusts in the 600pm to 200am time frame. Regarding heavy rain, there is a threat for sure on a local scale as surface dew points into the 70s and PWAT values in excess of 2.0 inches are very high moisture content indicators. That said, storms should be on the move. Where we could get into trouble is training of echoes along the boundary as it sags southward this afternoon and evening. We will be monitoring the need for local areal flood warnings and advisories today into tonight. Given the moisture levels 1-2 inch rainfall rates are certainly possible. The front moves south tonight and the threat of showers and storms will significantly diminish as weak ridging builds into the area for Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 406 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 Most of the long range fcst period will be characterized by fair wx with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps with persistent nw flow aloft. A shortwave moving se across our region on Sunday may bring potential for an isolated shower. However given the dry airmass in place by then we will go with a dry fcst for Sunday. A sfc high pressure ridge will then build in for early next week and continue to bring fair wx with pleasant temps. The ridge will move east by midweek. Southerly flow will develop on the back side of the departing ridge and result in a a gradual increase in moisture. A system moving in from the northwest will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday.
It is very warm and muggy out at this hour. I am getting lightning and thunder here. No rain yet. Nothing severe.
2 pm update
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It is so muggy today. Ugh!!!
Horrendous weather day!
My text forecast says 1 to 2 inches of rain and my point forecast shows1/4 inch of rain total! Too funny!
The computer models did not handle the last storm event around here well and have been all over with the outcomes for today. I guess it’s just a watch out the window kind of deal.
You are not kidding! From heavy rain to 2 inches down to .1 to.25 inches! Wow just wow!
85 degrees, high dew points. Plenty of sunshine. What could be better?!
Currently feels like 96 here… warmest day of the year so far?
I think yesterday was hotter sofar but definitely yucky outside…Hopefully good fuel for storms later ..InDYy
Better would be 100% sunshine, temp around 75 degrees with low dew points! High humidity and high dew points are horrendous!!!
.UPDATE… Issued at 1202 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023 CAMS still having issues with handling the convection this afternoon and evening. There is still the potential for mid afternoon showers and storms forming along the warm frontal boundary. The latest CAMS have stalled the cold frontal passage until late tonight into early tomorrow morning. One of the other issues that will slightly dampen convection was the morning cloudiness. It will be more difficult to reach the 90s but upper 80s is still expected as we are in the upper 70s to low 80s at this time. There remains very… Read more »
102 with heat index of 110 yesterday. It’s supposed to similar the rest of the time we’re here. The water temp is 86. We literally spent hours in the water. It’s the only way to handle the heat. We’re having a great time down here. You all have a great day.
Sounds GREAT! Enjoy!
Absolutely horrendous weather! That heat is ridiculous!
It’s not uncommon for this time of the year in the Redneck Riveria. 🍻
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/68 there was no rain fall and 84% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 16 MPH out of the S. It has been a warm overnight as the official low so far is 71 the low here in MBY was a warmer 73. At the current time it is 75 in MBY with a dew point of 70. For today the average H/L is 83/63. The record high of 100 was set in 1916 and the record low of 46 was set in 1978. The record rain fall amount of… Read more »
There is a chance of some rain/thunder today we shall see how this plays out. Here in the Grand Rapids metro area we have missed the bigger weather events this year and have only had light thundershowers. In other words it is now late July and we have yet to see a major thunderstorm in this area.
Slim
The latest CPC is a thing of beauty! Next week we will see below normal temps and August sees mainly below normal to near normal temps and no heat waves are in sight! We are clearly entrenched in a near to below normal temp pattern and I am loving it! Incredible!
We have been extremely lucky so far compared to the rest of the planet. Haha. Record breaking July heat and Michigan has largely dodged it somehow.
We are fortunate, because the heat down south is absolutely crazy. Water temp over 100 off Florida’s coast as well
Yes, all of this yet some people still do not believe the planet is warming and say, oh well nothing we can do about it?
Rocky that is so true.
Slim
I know and it is crazy and delusional!
In much of the Great Lakes area we can say “what heat?” In Michigan July has been near average. Maybe the up coming winter will be much warmer than average.
Slim
Winter will not much warmer than average! I can assure you of that! In fact I expect near average temps and above average snowfall! Who would have thought? Bring on the lake effect!