Our rainfall total for yesterday was .16 of an inch which brings us to a whopping .21 for the month of June. We reached 90° yesterday. Of course, we had a wide variety of rainfall totals across the area, the thing which was consistent was the humidity creating a very sultry day across the state.
Some areas have had a month’s worth of rain this week others have been teased with just or few sprinkles or watching the pretty colors on the radar as the rain moved around them. We had heavy rain just north of Otsego to the Watson area and a few rumbles of thunder before a second cell formed and moved through our area.
Models suggest a scenario much like yesterday setting up over the lakeshore counties with lesser coverage elsewhere.
- Chances for showers and a few storms today Not expecting as much coverage to the precipitation today, but it should occur once again. Surface based mean CAPE values via the SPC HREF show 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg this afternoon which should be more than enough for scattered showers and storms. The precipitation should be focused in a couple locations... 1) towards the lakeshore along the lake breeze front and 2) near the I-96 corridor where a weak boundary appears to set up. Certainly scattered activity and it may end up being a bit more than that in the lakeshore counties and towards Grand Rapids at times. From roughly 100pm through 700pm we should see showers and a few storms. There is some indication that some of this activity could even percolate after dark for a bit. Given weak shear the storms will be random in nature and nothing close to severe. - Isolated/scattered chances for precipitation Friday-Saturday Some diurnally forced showers and storms are possible once again on Friday. The activity should be isolated/scattered once again. The SPC HREF shows the lake breeze and Central Lower Michigan as favored locations. The activity will fade into Friday night with the loss of daytime heating. A better chance for showers and storms will occur on Saturday along and ahead of a cold frontal passage. The flow remains fairly weak overall so not expecting anything severe even on the cold front. - Cooler and drier into early next week The upper pattern trends towards a trough in the Sunday and Monday time frame with some embedded shortwaves moving through the flow. At this time we have a dry forecast given a very dry profile. Tuesday into Wednesday the upper flow is northerly with surface high pressure building in. Bottom line from Sunday through next Wednesday is cooler, less humid and mainly dry. Highs trend back into the 70s early to mid next week.