We reached 87° yesterday with .05 of an inch of rain which gives us .25 of an inch for the month.
The topical storm outlook from the National Hurricane Center remains fairly quiet once again. The Atlantic Ocean has no tropical storm formation forecast over the next five days. The Eastern Pacific has two disturbances well off the coast of Mexico which have a 20 to 30% chance of forming tropical storms and the Central Pacific also remains quiet. There are no tropical storm warnings in the northwest Pacific and the Indian Ocean.
It has also been fairly quiet in Michigan with the lack of storms. We haven’t had much more than a few rumbles of thunder in the state. Most of Lower Michigan is in at least a moderate drought. West-central Lower Michigan is experiencing a severe drought. Such dry conditions are leading to elevated wildfire potential requiring vigilant fire prevention.
The rainfall over the last few days was not a drought buster but should keep conditions from getting worse for at least a week or two. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with another round of showers possible on Saturday. We need to pick up several inches of rain to break the drought however according to long-range forecasts, conditions around the state will remain drier than normal over much of the rest of the month.
Today rain chances remain around 20% for the lakeshore counties and 30% west of 131. It will remain hot and humid with heat indices near 95 with a light breeze. Tomorrow rain chances increase to 40%. After that system moves out we will enter another dry period for next week.
- Showers and storms remain in the forecast Today-Saturday Showers and storms remain in the forecast for today, tonight and Saturday. The activity will be diurnally driven, so the main activity will be found in the afternoon and evening hours of today and Saturday. Today, the main location that will see showers/storms appears to be across Central Lower Michigan. Central into Northern Lower Michigan seems to be a focus area as lake breeze convergence off of Lakes Michigan and Huron may be maximized in this area. Some scattered to isolated activity is certainly possible across the rest of the forecast area, but the main activity will occur across our northern two rows of counties. Shear remains very week to non existent, so no severe weather is expected again. Lightning and locally heavy rains are the main threat. The showers/storms will fade after sunset like they have the last several days. On Saturday, we finally have more of a trigger in place with a cold front moving in from the west into a very humid atmosphere. The HREF shows more bullish/stronger activity on Saturday in almost all areas. The exception may be right along the lakeshore where a shadow seems to be in place. Elsewhere, showers and storms will be likely in the afternoon hours. Severe weather may be a reach on Saturday despite the front as shear remains relatively weak. - Mainly dry the remainder of the forecast I could see potentially needed to add some more in the way of showers to the forecast in the Sunday night into Monday time frame as a shortwave is forecast to be moving south through the area. At this point though we have a mainly dry forecast given a dry profile in model data. Envision the models becoming more moist with time. At this point we have some spotty 20 percent pops in the forecast. Otherwise high pressure will dominate into next week and will result in dry weather. - Cooler and less humid next week A cooler and more seasonable airmass will settle in for next week. The other noticeable change will be much less humid air. Dew points will drop in the north winds and then under high pressure mid week. Folks not liking the humid air of the last several days will like next week much more. Highs will trend back into the upper 70s for mid next week.