Weather History – Tuesday Rainfall

Once again the rain missed the Otsego/Plainwell area yesterday.  Our high temp was 84°.

The map shows how it practically came down to random chance whether you saw rain on Tuesday. What the map doesn’t show is some of the higher totals which fell only in certain neighborhoods, and mostly in just a 1 hour downpour.

We will have much of the same scenario today with hit-or-miss showers and a few rumbles of thunder.  It is nearly impossible to predict when or where the rain may fall so consider yourself lucky if you get some.  What may help us along in the rain department today would be a convergence boundary setting up around the I96 corridor and a lake breeze which would give us a chance of more widespread precipitation.


Weather History for SW Michigan

June 6

1869: It was the second frosty morning in a row as temperatures dropped to near or below freezing. Lansing recorded a low of 31 degrees, after a low of 27 degrees on the 5th which is the coldest ever recorded there in the month of June.

1917: A violent tornado struck the town of Springport in Jackson County, killing two people. About 35 homes were destroyed.

June 7

1958: One of the coolest Junes on record saw scattered frost across the region as the temperature fell to the mid-30s.

1996: A weak, short-lived tornado moved through open country east of Lake Lansing in rural Ingham County. Two other small, weak tornadoes struck near Novi and Flint.

June 8

1933: An early-season heat wave peaked as temperatures hit 97 degrees at Grand Rapids and 92 at Lansing.

2008: Severe weather and flash flooding occur on June 7th and 8th, with four drownings in southwest Lower Michigan. Two people drowned when their car plunged into a fifty-foot ravine created by a washed-out road in Castle Park, Allegan County. Tornadoes struck in Osceola County near Hersey and in Eaton County near Needmore, downing hundreds of trees and destroying several outbuildings.

2003: Tornadoes strike Lower Michigan, with damage mostly confined to near Fenton in Genesee County and Leonard in Oakland County. A weak tornado hit near Rose Lake in Osceola County but did no damage.

June 9

1963: Severe thunderstorms caused millions of dollars in damage across the region as winds gusted over 70 mph. There were also reports of funnel clouds and a possible tornado in Belmont where several trailers were destroyed and homes were damaged. A tornado near Dorr heavily damaged a house.

1966: A large storm system that had produced the F5 Topeka, Kansas tornado the previous day moved into the Great Lakes region and brought severe weather to Lower Michigan with high winds and large hail. A tornado struck Wall Lake, near Delton in Barry County and damaged a boat and cottage.

1974: Ferris State University in Big Rapids is hit by a tornado. Two people are injured. Several houses and two schools also had damage to roofs and walls.

2004: Severe thunderstorms produced at least one tornado and some very large hail. Hailstones over 4 inches in diameter fell in Jackson County and a tornado briefly touched down near Alma, producing only some tree damage.

June 10

1939: Tornadoes struck across southern Lower Michigan, including one that hit Kalamazoo County from near Schoolcraft to Austin Lake. A farmhouse lost its second floor and a mattress from the home was found over a mile away.

June 11

1968: Severe thunderstorms produced large hail across the region. Hail of 2.5 inches in diameter fell in Ionia County. One of the storms spawns a tornado that kills one person near Pompeii in Gratiot County.

1972: A late-season freeze struck the region with Muskegon dropping to 31 degrees for their coldest June temperature on record. Lansing fell to 32 degrees and Grand Rapids to 33 degrees.

June 12

1996: Extensive flash flooding in and around Mt. Pleasant was the result of 1.82 inches of rainfall in 30 minutes with storm totals exceeding 2 inches. At one point parking lots had water 12 inches deep, several fields and ditches were flooded, and some motor homes and campers were set afloat.

1998: A tornado touched down in Bedford Township in northwest Calhoun County, doing minor damage to a few homes and shearing off trees like a large weed whacker.

2008: Historic flash flooding results from up to a foot of rain near Ludington and Manistee. More than 40 roads were washed out and some of them were not repaired for several months. The torrential rains are preceded by a severe thunderstorm that drops two tornadoes. The first tornado came ashore north of Ludington at the Nordhouse Dunes Wilderness Area, downing hundreds of trees. A second tornado hit near Stronach in Manistee County.


Weather History for SE Michigan

June 6

On June 6, 1903, the record for the greatest amount of precipitation for the month of June in Detroit was reached, with a rainfall estimate of 3.07 inches. The normal monthly precipitation amount for the month of June is 3.55 inches. In just one day, the monthly average was almost reached!

On June 6, 2008, widespread severe weather was reported across the Tri-Cities, Thumb and Flint areas. There were 24 reports of hail and wind damage from the storms with a measured 71 mph wind gust from a spotter in Howell.

Also on June 6, 2010, a strong low-pressure system tracked through the Detroit Metro area during the early morning hours, spawning three tornadoes south of I-94, with flash flooding occurring over Washtenaw and Wayne counties as 2 to 4 inches of rain was recorded. The two tornadoes which occurred over Monroe county damaged a total of 311 buildings. Five single-family homes were destroyed. Major damage occurred at 34 structures. Minor damage was observed at 74 structures, with 198 other homes affected needing mostly cosmetic repairs. The village of Dundee was hardest hit by the EF2 tornado.

June 7

On June 7, 1930, the temperature rose to only 54 degrees in Detroit!

June 8

On June 8, 1953, the deadliest tornado in Michigan history struck the northern Flint community of Beecher at 8:30 PM, killing 116 and injuring 844 along its path. The F5 tornado touched down about 2 miles north of Flushing and from there, created a path averaging about a half-mile wide as it moved across Flint, at an approximate speed of 35mph, to about 2 miles north of Lapeer. A 23-mile long path of death and destruction was left in its wake with over a hundred lives lost, including as many as 20 families reporting multiple deaths. Damage was estimated at $19 million (1953 dollars). On this day in 2003 (the 50th anniversary of the Beecher/Flint Tornado), three tornadoes touched down in the area. Ironically, one tornado hit the southern portion of Genesee County while commemoration ceremonies were underway.

Also on June 8, 2008, a derecho, a significant squall line, raced through Southeast Lower Michigan. Winds were estimated to 80 to 90 mph across portions of Tuscola, Oakland and Macomb Counties. In Southeast Michigan, nearly 300,000 homes and businesses lost power in the storm and total damage was nearly $100 million.

June 9

On June 9, 2011, a cold front moved through Southeast Michigan around midnight and it produced numerous severe thunderstorms across southeast Michigan during the early morning hours. Winds were estimated to be near 85 mph around Sebewaing with dozens of downed trees and extensive damage at the airport. A measured wind gust of 76 mph was recorded in Flint.

Also on June 9, 1933, the overnight low temperature dropped to only 76 degrees in Detroit. Considering that the normal high temperature for June 9 is 78 degrees, this would have been a very warm overnight temperature!

June 10

On June 10, 1941, the overnight low dropped to a “freezing” 33 degrees in the city of Saginaw. This is the record low temperature for the month of June in Saginaw and is tied by the low temperature recorded on June 8, 1949.

June 11

On June 11, 2014, a supercell spawned a tornado just southwest of the town of Saint Charles. The tornado intensified to EF-1 along Fordney Road between Brant and Fergus Roads. Several large trees were uprooted and minor structural damage was observed.

Also on June 11, 1972, the overnight low temperature dropped to 36 degrees in Detroit. This is the record low temperature for the month of June in Detroit and ties the record set on June 1, 1966.

June 12

On June 12, 1984, an F3 tornado hit Bay County at 6:20 PM and caused $2,500,000 in damage. Two individuals were reported injured, but there were no deaths. This was the strongest tornado ever reported in Bay County.


Forecast Discussion

- Numerous showers and storms today; locally heavy rain-

It would seem to this forecaster that the overall coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be greater today than Monday or
Tuesday. Helping the cause today is a convergence boundary at the
surface now, that was not there yesterday. It is under the upper
deformation zone between the upper high over northern Michigan and
the upper low over IN and OH. That convergence boundary is seen
on just about all of our hi-res models and it near I-96 today.
North of that winds are mostly from the northeast, south of that
boundary, winds are from the southeast. This combination provides
better dynamic forcing today. We still have very moist atmosphere
over us with precipitable water values well over 1.5 inches. MBE
vector speeds are still under 5 knots, so cells will not be moving
to fast today. Forecast MU capes are between 1500 and 2000 j/kg
near and north of I-96, a little less south of there. There will
also be a lake breeze convergence boundary this afternoon for
another area to force convection. All of this means a continued
threat mostly afternoon and evening thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall. Like the past 2 days isolated locations will
likely get more than 2 inches of rain today, most areas will see
less than a quarter inch of rain however.

Due the low deep layer shear the threat for severe storms is
rather low today and tonight. Like the past few days the
convection will calm down by mid evening so little if any
precipitation is expected overnight tonight.

- Showers and storms more scattered Thursday; locally heavy rain-

On Thursday, the continued feed of northeast to east winds will
bring dryer mid level air and some drier surface air north and
east of Lansing. The surface convergence boundary is not strong
plus the mid level deformation is not a strong either. Still the
air is moist and there is enough cape for storms. So we will see
convection but it will be more of a scattered nature.

- Warm with a chance of shower and storms through weekend

Friday a northern stream shortwave dives over the upper ridge
axis, which is just west of here. This surges in drier air over
the eastern part of our CWA and lowers capes and mid level
moisture. Still there is at least of chance of afternoon storms.

Saturday night into Sunday an even stronger shortwave moves
through. This will be our pattern changer. It will bring an higher
risk of thunderstorm Sunday. There is 100 to 120 knot jet core
that comes nearly our us with this too. There are timing issues in
the models with this. No matter what, though it will come through
and enhance our risk of storms in that time frame (Sunday/Monday).

- Cooler with dry weather next week

Finally once this jet core gets through and deep eastern trough
becomes established with an upstream ridge over the western
plains. This should keep us cooler and dry from Tuesday into at
least Thursday or Friday.

newest oldest
Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That looks very odd with a line of rain moving from the Southeast to the Northwest on radar. Backwards.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

How can they “look” so close? 😉 Surrounded by towering storms, with sun on the driveway…everything is staying away from Ada as usual.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Enjoying the “borrowed” thunder…

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Same here. Dark clouds all around and I can hear thunder. We’re missing out again. 😒

INDY
INDY

91* degrees In my area probably the hottest day in June I’m thinking!! it down right sucks outside at least the fan feels good and the poool is Coool…INDY!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

My bro lives in Phoenix. It’s 99 there currently, but the dew point is only 27.

Mookie
Mookie

88 degrees with a heat index of 93 degrees. Phew, it’s HOT! Definitely a lot warmer than forecasts had this morning.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Temp may not be “officially” 90 yet but the heat index now is. Ugh, this feels terrible.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Hey ya’ll – in case you were not aware, Blake Harms is now doing the weather during the morning news on WLNS channel 6 here in Lansing. He is doing a great job! It seems like just yesterday when he was in high school, predicting school closings on Bill’s Blog.

Slim

For those that get up early and if it is clear and you have a good view to the NE there will be a eclipse of the sun on Thursday at sun rise. The best locations in Michigan will be on the far east side of the state along the Lake Huron shore as it will be at sunrise and I think that in the Alpena area the maximum coverage is around 62% of so.
https://www.wxyz.com/news/michigan-gets-a-rare-view-of-solar-eclipse-next-week
Slim

Slim

Here at my house there was 0.03″ of rain fall overnight. The official high of 87 was reached briefly just after 4PM but most of the day was in the low 80’s The overnight low here at my house was 70 while the official overnight low was 69 at the airport. At this time it is 75 here at my house with a DP of 72 so it is humid this morning. But I was just outside and it is rather nice out and there is a nice smell in the air from some roses blooming in the area.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

We had almost 2 whole minutes of rain yesterday and a few rumbles of thunder, but not enough rain to measure in the gauge. Boy this is some hot & steamy air we’ve been in. Dew point yesterday was into the 70’s again which feels just downright awful unless your in the ac all day.

Mookie
Mookie

Phew! We’ve already had 4 days at 87 degrees or better in June.