Today we reflect not only on our feasts of turkey and ham but also on the blessings of the past year, another year of life, friendships, and families. Even though we have had times of Covid, flu, protests, foreign war, and senseless gun violence we take time to think about the blessings in our lives and families. We have food on the table, shelter, and jobs (those of you who aren’t retired) – we have much to be thankful for. One of the things I am thankful for is all my friends here on the blog at the Michigan Weather Center, may you all have a peaceful and happy Thanksgiving day!
Skies will become mostly cloudy for Thanksgiving Day with showers moving through during the late afternoon and evening. Temperatures will peak in the 40s to low 50s. Rainfall totals will be light, most areas will see a tenth of an inch or less.
-- Rain showers this afternoon into tonight -- A midlevel shortwave trough and associated vort max--currently evident in WV imagery near ND/Manitoba--will continue southeastward toward the Great Lakes today. Strengthening ascent ahead of this feature, combined with PW increasing to 0.6-0.7 inches, will result in precip arriving in the forecast area this afternoon. RAP and HRRR profiles continue to exhibit weak conditional instability within the 850-700-mb layer, yielding MUCAPE of 10-70 J/kg. This should contribute to some convective/showery elements this afternoon/evening. Total rainfall through Fri morning is expected to be 0.2 inch or less, as supported by 00z HREF LPMM guidance. Subsidence/drying tonight will bring an end to precip, and a brief period of cold advection will occur following the passage of a cold front. Clearing is expected on Fri as a low-level ridge axis builds into the region. -- Precip Sat night into Sun...mainly rain -- The mid/upper trough currently over the southern Rockies will continue to dig southeastward, becoming a closed low tonight near southern NM/western TX. This low will then eject northeastward beginning on Fri night, spurring the development of a surface low in eastern TX by Sat morning. The GEFS mean and deterministic GFS have recently trended decidedly slower with the progression of this system into Sun, and now show good agreement with the EPS mean and ECMWF. Accordingly, PoPs in the forecast area have been eliminated on Sat afternoon/evening to reflect a later precip onset. An area of steady precip is expected to approach from the south late Sat night, maintained by deep QG forcing for ascent. Confidence remains high that this precip will fall primarily as rain. However, as dynamical cooling proceeds and wet-bulb zero heights fall, rain may mix with wet snow, mainly within our northern two rows of counties. With surface temps likely in the mid 30s, travel- related impacts appear unlikely. Categorical PoPs will be carried in most zones for the Sat night-Sun timeframe, with likely PoPs in the far northwest. -- Tue and beyond -- Global ensemble (EPS and GEFS) means remain consistent in depicting a digging trough over the western CONUS from Sun night into Mon. At the surface, a lee cyclone will likely develop in the high plains during the Mon night-Tue timeframe, then approach the Great Lakes on Tue night. Ensemble probs continue to suggest that rain associated with this system may reach the forecast area as early as Tue afternoon, with rain becoming likely on Tue night into Wed. A sizable number of EPS and GEFS members in the latest runs depict a seasonably deep surface low passing northwest of the forecast area around Wed morning, implying cold-frontal passage through the area and a period of pronounced low-level cold advection--a factor more favorable for strong winds. Indeed, a growing number of EPS members now produce gusts of 40+ kts in the forecast area during the Wed-Wed night timeframe. Later updates will continue to assess this midweek system.