Welcome to Met Fall! Skies will be mostly sunny today with highs slightly above normal in the low to middle 80s. Light and variable winds this morning will become southwest at 5 to 15 mph this afternoon. Yesterday’s high was 78° and the low was 55°
We start fall with above-normal temps and dry conditions which may persist through the first half of the month.
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We are finally beginning to see the tropical flow forming in the Atlantic as it is becoming more active:
Forecast Discussion for SW Michigan
-- Increasingly warmer through Saturday -- High pressure centered south of the area near the Ohio River, extends up through Michigan, and into Western Ontario. This ridging help to cap the vertical development of clouds yesterday, and keep the area dry. This ridge will be slowly building east, and allowing an increasing SW flow to advect warmer air over the area through early Saturday. 850 mb temps are currently around 14C, and are forecast to increase to around 18C by later Friday. This would support temps in the low to mid 80s today, and mid to upper 80s on Friday. -- Rain chances focused on Saturday and Sunday -- It looks like that rain chances will pretty much hold off until Saturday morning, before increasing across the area. The NW flow aloft continues to dominate the weather for the state. The next upper wave in the flow will be diving to the SE, and bringing a cold front into the area. Right now, it looks the timing of the cold front moving through early in the afternoon, and deep layer shear lacking with a weak flow through the column, will keep the threat of severe weather on the lower side. We are also not expecting Saturday to be a washout by any means. The front looks to move through the area Saturday afternoon, and be exiting the area to the south between 18 and 21z. This will limit the best warm and unstable air mass to be over the far southern areas toward the state border. MU CAPEs are forecast to increase to over 2,000 J/kg near the front. The problem is that the models are indicating that effective shear values of around 10 knots or less. Some large hail can not be ruled out with some decent mid level lapse rates in the mid 6 C/km, but it will be the exception vs. the rule. The chance of showers and storms will diminish a bit after dark Sat night, but will not completely go away. We could see weak short wave activity move through and touch off a few showers/storms. This might increase a little more on Sunday with heating of the day taking place. The best instability will be south of the cold front which will be south of the state by that time. Again, this does not look to cause a washout on Sunday. -- Uncertain weather next week -- We have seen the models and their ensembles show multiple possible scenarios unfolding over the region early next week. All of these scenarios are dependent on the upper trough/low that will be moving through the midwest, and how it evolves. We have had scenarios cutting off the upper low over the area, to cutting it off to the east of the area, to now showing it cutting off to our south. This is not a surprise given that upper lows are very difficult to forecast the exact track, and resulting weather. Right now, it does not look like we would see widespread rain. If the upper low stays close enough to the area, it could help pop a few showers/storms over the area. This could be the case for one day, or multiple days. If the low moves far enough south or east, then the rain chances will drop down to near zero. Right now, a small chance suffices given the situation.
Our near normal temp summer has been fantastic! No heat waves and just a few 90 degree days in GR! Definitely not a hot summer! Rock n roll will never die!
Meteorological summer was anything but average in Detroit. Top 20 warmest summer ever recorded and 22nd driest summer as well (records go back to 1874).
https://www.weather.gov/media/dtx/climate/Seasonal%20Reviews/DTX_Summer2022_Review.pdf
August was another warm month (even in the ice box of NWS GR). Last cooler than average month was all the way back in April.
And now September is starting warm too!
Fun fact of the day! How many days in August did GR see a high temp of 90 degrees or greater? The answer is ZERO! How funny is that despite the warm weather hype? What a summer! Wow!
Yes pretty quiet on here this Summer for a change especially the last few weeks…. This Summer was easy peasy compared to some Summer past in the heat department but what a wet August we are having I been cutting the grass every week since July crazy hopefully it turns to snow soon ….INDY
+100 million!
I know AccuWeather is not very accurate… but they are forecasting a very warm first half of September and then a near-average second half of September. Either way, most of the month looks like 70s and 80s (some 60s near the end). September is probably the most pleasant month of the year
Of course an unexpected hurricane could always change the forecast so I don’t always trust long-range September outlooks
Does anyone know if there is a way to contact one of Weather Underground’s local stations (Hamilton area) to get weather data? Are those stations automated, or run by local weather enthusiasts? I’m trying to get specific wind speeds from the latest wind storm on the 29th for my area. Even when I got to one of the local WU stations and click on history, it defaults me back to the station at GR airport…
I just tried it and you are right. I never looked up the history before. Maybe Bill Steffan could tell you.
Welcome to meteorological autumn. In looking back at meteorological summer 2022 at Grand Rapids it would be hard to find another summer more typical (average) than the summer of 2022. The mean temperature each month was less that 0.5° above average (less then 0.5 above or below average is considered “average”) At Grand Rapids June was +0.3, July was average and August was +0.3. for the summer season there were 7 days at or above 90 the highest was 95 on June 21st the lowest was 45 on June 4th There was 11.35” of rain fall. Grand Rapids had 71%… Read more »
For yesterday the official H/L was 80/61 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 95% of the time. For today the average H/L is down to 79/58 the record high of 97 was in 1953 and the record low of 40 was way back in 1896.
Slim
Who would have thought a normal temp summer despite the constant warm weather hype from some! Thanks for the facts and these facts always get in the way of the warm weather fantasies! Incredible!
Bill thinks a big blizzard this winter season is not out of the question bring it onnn!! Goodbye Summer heloo Fall …INDY
Way way too early to think of how the winter will play out. I will post some information on triple La Nina’s played out in their 3rd year later on.
Slim
That would be great but we will see… we are definitely overdue for a big blizzard though
I don’t think it’s out of question for any winter season. The Farmer’s Almanac came out two days ago and it calls for a cold, snowy winter for the Great Lakes region. We’re long overdue for one of those so it’s going to happen one of these years. FWIW, the Almanac is supposedly 83% correct in it’s seasonal forecasts.
The Almanac rocks!
Hard to believe it’s September already and another summer is about here and gone. Summer seems to always go by in a flash. As we enter fall my thoughts start moving to how the upcoming winter will be? Bill wrote and interesting write up on his blog about this 3rd year La Niña.
In going back to 1950 I can only find two times when there were La Nina conditions in 3 years in a row. 1974,75,76 and 1999, 2000 and 2001. There have been a couple more with back to back La Nina’s