I had to go to Allegan to have a CT scan yesterday. While in the waiting room there was a gentleman spouting off about how stupid weather people were and they may as well throw a dart at a forecast chart. I informed him I was the owner of the Michigan Weather Center and proceeded to tell him all the variables of weather patterns and not to put much credence into a forecast more than a couple of days out. All in all, it was a friendly conversation though it is hard to recognize facial expressions whilst wearing a mask. There were a dozen other people in the waiting area and they listened with interest to our conversation.
Long-range models are fun to look at however they change daily so I don’t get my anticipation up about how warm or cold they say it is going to be.
That said we will have some sunshine today giving away to clouds late and some more snow showers overnight. Here are yesterdays snowfall totals:
Here is today’s NWS discussion:
-- Breezy and milder today -- It will be breezy and milder today as strong southwest to wsw flow waa will help to boost high temps into the middle to perhaps upper 30s. A cold front will bring a few light snow showers and flurries late tonight. -- Cold Friday with light lake effect snow showers -- Nw flow light lake effect snow showers are forecast Friday as h8 temps will fall to -16 to -18 C yielding high delta t/s. However les potential has significant mitigating factors including lack of deep moisture and low inversion heights of around 5 kft agl. Therefore only light snow accumulations on the order of an inch or two are expected in our favored nw flow snow belt regions. -- Snow possible Sunday and Monday -- The deterministic 00z ecmwf shows potential for a little light snow to move in from the west Sunday. Then for Monday a consensus of medium range guidance the past several days has shown potential for a fairly strong low pressure system to move across the lower Ohio Valley region Monday with heaviest pcpn with that system staying south of our area. However ECMWF guidance and ensembles have trended further north and now show potential for snow with potentially significant accumulations across much of our area with potential for at least a half to three quarters of an inch of qpf. There is still considerable uncertainty in terms of exact track and strength of the system though. It is noted that the 00Z GFS is significantly further south.