I am sure it has become apparent to all this winter has been much less than normal. Even if we return to a ‘normal’ snow pattern we will never reach our average snowfall for the season unless we have a couple of major snowstorms and tons of lake effect on top of that which to me seems unlikely at this point.
Storm systems have moved all around us leaving us in the snow drought once again. The pool of Arctic air has moved over to Siberia and northern Eurasia much of the winter. We will more than likely see a few winter blasts in Michigan over the next couple of months perhaps into March, however, the Arctic will get to a point where it won’t recover after dumping its cold air over the other side of the world.
Temps will be cold today falling to near 20° with light lake effect snow possible from 131 to the west in the more favored NW snow corridors. Not expecting much though, perhaps around an inch.
Here is the NWS discussion for the weekend including the possibility of a storm on Monday:
- Light lake effect snow showers and colder today - Tranquil weather Saturday - Light snow Saturday night into Sunday - Still a chance for significant snow late Monday/Monday night - Light lake effect snow showers and colder today - NW flow light lake effect snow showers are forecast today with h8 temps down to -16 to -18 C yielding high delta t/s. However there are several mitigating factors to more substantial lake effect snows such as rather low inversion heights of 5-6 kft agl and shallow moisture. Therefore most locations across our area will receive very light snow accumulations of under an inch today. A few one to two inch amounts are possible mainly over our nw fcst area. - Tranquil weather Saturday - An upper level ridge as well as sfc ridging will briefly build in and bring tranquil but seasonably cold wx Saturday. - Light snow Saturday night into Sunday - A light warm air advection snow event will develop late Saturday night and Sunday in an area of isentropic upglide well to the north of a frontal boundary that will extend across the lower Great Lakes region. Light snow accumulations ranging from under an inch to around two inches are forecast with relatively higher accums expected north to nw of KGRR where some lake enhancement is also expected. - Still a chance for significant snow late Monday/Monday night - The forecast for Monday remains quite challenging due to significant medium range guidance discrepancies. GFS guidance continues to suggest that the low pressure system will track across the lower OH valley region with most (and possibly all) snow staying just south of our fcst area. Conversely the 00Z deterministic ECMWF still suggests that snow that could potentially be heavy could clip our southern fcst area. So we will need to continue to monitor guidance trends closely. One of the keys to this fcst will likely be the sprawling high pressure ridge and associated cold dense arctic air that will extend from Saskatchewan to Ontario. This synoptic setup could very well force this system far enough south such that most and possibly all of our fcst area could miss out on the heavy snow. At this time though it is still fair to say that there is potential for significant snow south of I-96 late Monday/Monday night and perhaps lingering into Tuesday per overall guidance trends the past 24 hours of a slightly slower moving system.