The days are getting pretty short, sunrise is 7:23 sunset is 5:29. I am generally up in the morning around 6:30 (up with the chickens as my grandparents would say), now I will be getting home from work (my real job in the pharmaceutical industry) when the sun is setting. Luckily my office has a huge window so I can see the daylight and watch the weather or else I would be like a mole who lives in the dark.
Weather wise temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than usual this week. The coldest day will likely be Friday. Significant precipitation is not expected.
Fairly quiet weather in the near term with no precipitation expected as sfc ridging dominates. Tweaked min temperatures down a few degrees from the model blend as light winds and clear skies should allow optimum radiational cooling tonight and Tuesday night. Most places will drop well below freezing with some teens possible in the normally colder spots.
In regards to the Arctic air for later this week from the NWS:
The ecmwf has been the most consistent in showing a surge of arctic air later this week. The gfs actually showed it 4 days ago, then pushed it northeast into Ontario and now brings it back through the cwa like it did 4 days ago. The cold front that moves through Thursday will bring the coldest air of the season and a few lake effect snow showers, but accums will be limited due to dry air associated with the system.
The ecmwf pushes the cold front through early afternoon Thursday, while the gfs is closer to 12z. Both system are feature deep upper troughs and tight thickness packing. If the gfs verifies, we`ll likely see temperatures falling Thursday. Either way, temperatures will fall as h8 temps plummet from -5c early in the day to -15c by Thursday night.
The large surface high building in behind the system is around 1036 mb on both models. The upper trough actually moves across the state quickly Thursday which will limit any lake effect snow. There is some lift in the dgz Thursday, but it`s fleeting and any accums should be limited to an inch or less.
By Friday morning, anticyclonic curvature is well entrenched over the cwa thanks to the sfc high and a short wave ridge moving toward the Great Lakes. Perhaps the best chance for mixed precipitation will occur late Saturday and early Sunday when a mid level trough plows across the cwa.
We may see some moisture return on the back side of the high that will have moved to the East Coast. But, by then, boundary layer temps will have modified somewhat and pcpn will mix with and change to rain. Friday will be the coldest day with highs in the lower 30s over the northern cwa to upper 30s over the south.
In short, we will see colder air move into the area over the week, the coldest will be Thursday through the weekend with a little snow, but not enough to get the snow blowers and skis out. Yesterday the GFS was keeping the cool air around through the end of the month, today’s model shows a hint of temperatures rising into the 60’s around Thanksgiving. I wouldn’t get to excited yet, these models have a history of changing day by day. Still no hints of a major snow in the near or long term. As I said in my preliminary winter forecast we may have to wait until closer to Christmas before we have a consistent snow cover.
37° here and mostly sunny. It sure is nice to see the sun out for a change. Still a lot of leaves on the trees in the GR metro area and in my opinion the leaves are now believe or not at peak color here. Or at least it seems that way with the sun out today. I will be going up to Bay City later today and will report on the leaves (if any are left) up that way.
Slim
I have my snowblower tuned up and oil changed. But, I need to mow again. Just waiting for it to dry up a bit. We received a lot of rain this weekend.
I was in Denver last week for work. 70° in town but I did go up to Loveland Pass where it was 30°, windy and quite a bit of snow. Truly God’s Country. 🙂
I haven’t changed the oil in our snowblower in a long time! Last year I think I only put just over an 1 hour of use on it, and little more than that the year before. No where near the 30 or so I usually have before I change.
You are right about Colorado. Simply awesome out there. We were considering Hawaii for our 25th next year, but now we’re leaning more towards a return to the Rockies.