We have a temp of 37° this morning at 6 am with a few light showers trying to work themselves in off Lake Michigan. We have only had .29 of an inch of rain so far this month as we continue through our dry spring. The CPC is predicting a warming trend with a slightly better chance of seeing more persistent rain – they have been predicting higher than normal chances of rain since the beginning of the month so I would take that with a grain of salt.
On the other hand, most current models are now strongly hinting of a pattern shift coming from this weekend on into next week with warmer temps and better chances of rain closer to the one-inch range as they are showing the probability of tapping into the Gulf moisture a more reasonable assumption. We have a lot of ground to catch up on in the rain department.
Forecast Discussion
-- Frost/Freeze Threat Through Wednesday Morning -- The setup for frost and freezing conditions tonight looks a bit better than this morning, with colder readings of 28-32 expected for the majority of the region (save for the western half of the immediate coastal counties). This will likely necessitate a Freeze Warning for most or all of our forecast area. Given a mid level shortwave dropping through tonight I would expect NW winds to hold up, making this more of an advective freeze as colder temperatures aloft advect in. Similar case for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, though in both cases model soundings do indicate a low level temperature inversion. I think low temps will be very similar to tonight/Tuesday morning. In both cases I am still anticipating the core fruit belt region along our lakeshore should escape a hard freeze scenario. Further inland, it could be a close call. Take precautions as necessary through Wednesday morning, and then we may be out of this threat for good. -- Low Risk for a Sprinkle / Light Shower Today and Tuesday -- Given the robust mid level troughing (upper low near Lake Superior) and cold air advection over the Great Lakes today and Tuesday, can`t totally rule out a sprinkle or light shower developing. These would be minor and most places won`t get rainfall. Model soundings are indicating cloud bases would be rooted near 850 mb with plenty of dry air below, so virga may be a more likely scenario. -- Pattern Shift is Anticipated Next Week -- There is growing confidence in next week being warmer and wetter than we have seen recently. Normal highs by that time are around 70 degrees. It is looking likely that we`ll be near to above normal for temperatures. Ensemble guidance is also hinting at a wetter stretch setting up. The ECE mean 500 mb height pattern becomes more conducive to a wetter setup in the Midwest and Great Lakes. ECE mean precipitable water content makes a distinct upward jump by the end of this weekend and carries us all the way through next week potentially. We have seen numerous model runs now of this being projected. Also intriguing is the fact the deterministic runs of the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF indicate a more active LLJ by early next week that could have a fair shot of bringing up Gulf moisture into our region instead of being shunted south of here, as has been the case so often this spring. We`ll see how that pans out. Ensemble guidance from the ECE, GEFS, and CMC shows growing support for 1" or more of rain next week. The ECE probability of 1" or more across our region is 50%-60% with the GEFS and CMC showing 60%-70%, which is fairly impressive considering we are talking about the 7 to 14 day time frame. It is noted that roughly 1/3 of the ensemble members from the combined grouping of ECE/GEFS/CMC have 2" or more of rain. While these totals aren`t earth-shattering, they become noteworthy when you consider that we scraped together only 1"-2" of rain for the entire month of April. So, the bottom line is the odds are tilting toward a warmer and at times wetter period for us next week.
Currently 44* degrees with light rain showers out In my area very Fall like May day …INDY
Freeze Warning are now in effect! I expect lows in the area to dip into the 20’s again! Who would have thought? Wow!
Just another night with the furnace running in the middle of May wow …Cover up them plants …INDY ..
I see there is some discussion as to how Memorial day will play out. Well this year Memorial day is not until May 31. So that is still a very long way off. And By that time the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 75/54. The record high is 95 set in 1934 it has been in the 90’s in 5 years and in the upper 80’s and above 85 a total of 17 times and 80 or above a total of 40 times.
Slim
Is this going to be another thunder-free spring? Looks that way so far.
That sure looks to be the case. According it GRR records there were 3 days in April when at least one rumble of thunder occurred. The same number of days with a least one rumble happened in Lansing.
Slim
The overnight low here was 37 so no frost last night. At Grand Rapids May now has a mean of 52.3 and that is a departure of -3.0. At Muskegon the mean is 50.2 and that is a departure of -3.9. At Holland the mean is 50.7 that is a departure of -3.7. And to the east at Lansing their mean so far this month is 51.7 good for a departure of -2.9. The current temperature here at my house is 42 with mostly cloudy skies.
Slim
Yes cold for this time of year thanks for the numbers Slim ….In Slim we trust ….INDY!!
Breaking news>>>>Memorial weekend will not be a hot one! With any luck it will be near to slightly above normal!
Remember barry considers mid 60’s and mid 70’s hot …lol ..Very well could be then DDDDDD..INDY
And remember you said last week 50’s and 60’s are February like weather.
Probably the lows being in the mid 20’s and low 30’s nice try though …Well below average for this time of year crazzy …INDY
What day did we have in the mid 20’s? There wasn’t one.
Wow February weather in May!! Who knew?? INDY
May 7, 2021 10:06 am
Slim
Slim
Not really February but well below average for sure.
Yes and at my house I had 2 nights were the lows dipped into the 20’s, in fact tonight might be the 3rd! Incredible weather!
Yes low temps in the mid 20’s and low 30’s are February like let’s be real for a minute even crazzer when it happens in May right?? I’m sure Slim will agree on that …Shuuu INDY
To bad “you house” does not count as an official observation location. Maybe someday.
Clearly we are and have been entrenched in a cold pattern!
I forgot he runs his ac if the temps get above 60 degrees!
Incredible!! INDY …
Coming from someone with a cold weather obsession one would think you could relate to someone else who also likes it cool. Nope.
What an astounding cold pattern! More frost and freeze warnings are imminent! Get prepared now! This has been and incredible cold snap! It started in mid April and is still going strong! Wow!
+1000….INDY ..
The outlooks agree with MV, pattern change ahead. Looking like Memorial weekend could be a hot one.
Indeed Barry.
As I lay here with the furnace cranking again I looked ahead around Memorial Day weekend wow does it look cold for this year I would not put away the Winter coats just yet great Scotty I say!! It just maybe a polor plunge into lake Michigan for some on Memorial Day …. Enjoy another cool day in May ….INDY …