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Cloudy with Rain Today

Michigan made a statement yesterday with their beating up on Ohio in the second half leaving with a 43 to 23 victory over the Buckeyes.  Congrats to the Wolverines who now own the title of the Big Ten East.  Michigan captured the division title for the third time and finished the 2022 regular season 12-0 overall and 9-0 in conference play, the team’s first undefeated regular season since 1997. The Wolverines also clinched their third overall Big Ten East Division title and their second in as many years. They now play Purdue (8 and 4) for the Big Ten Championship title.


Rain can be expected today as low pressure lifts north out of the Gulf region. Some wet snow could mix in across Central Lower Michigan, but travel impacts are not expected.  Rain amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch for SW Michigan with higher amounts to the east.


Forecast Discussion

-- Today into Tonight --

The cutoff upper-level low formerly over Texas is being
reincorporated into the midlatitude westerlies, and surface low
pressure will deepen toward the lower 990s as it tracks through
Indiana and Ohio today. Deformation zone precipitation to the
north of this low will be with us for much of the day. HREF
probability matched mean QPF gives areas southeast of Battle Creek
and Lansing about 0.5 to 0.75 inches, trending down to about 0.25
inches around Holland - Grand Rapids - Alma, and about 0.1 toward
Ludington.

Cooler air advecting into the back side of the low may support
some wet snow mixing in this evening before the precip ends, with
the highlands of central Michigan being more prone to seeing any.
Lake effect tonight will be limited by low inversion heights. Lows
dipping below freezing Monday morning could support some icy
patches forming mainly on overpasses if surface dewpoint
depressions remain low enough to prevent evaporation, but most
models are not on board with this idea as the air below the
inversion will stay fairly well mixed tonight and much drier air
at the base of the inversion will move in.

-- Midweek --

The next eventful weather to affect us midweek will be carried by
Rossby wave amplification over the central part of the country.
By Monday night, two surface lows will have developed -- one in
Manitoba underneath the upper level low, and one in Colorado
underneath positive potential vorticity advection and favorable
jet streak dynamics as the trough digs and sharpens. The Colorado
low will hook through the western Great Lakes before consolidating
into a deep and mature cyclone north of Lake Superior on
Wednesday.

Ahead of this low on Tuesday, mild air from the south-central US
will advect our way and give us temperatures near 50 degrees
Tuesday afternoon into much of the night. Behind the cold front
Wednesday morning, temperatures will fall during the day as a
portion of a subarctic airmass is advected our way. The coldest
air will move through Wednesday night, though it won`t stay for
long as the wave pattern remains fairly progressive and we will be
back into warm air advection by Thursday night.

Two potential impacts for Wednesday include wind and snow.
Ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS suggest that westerly wind gusts
pushing advisory criteria may happen behind the cold front,
particularly near the lakeshore. And while ensemble spread of QPF
is still quite large, generally the middle 50 percent of solutions
is in the range of a quarter to half inch, a portion of which
could fall as snow Wednesday afternoon, then a small amount
falling as lake effect that would linger through the night. With
surface temperatures likely dropping below 32 with nightfall Wed
evening, then into the low to mid 20s by Thu morning, roads could
turn slushy Wed evening then icy Thu morning.
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Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

NWS Grand Rapids making mention to another possible significant cold blast in the extended range. Maybe get the lake effect going again for some areas?! Long ways out so lots can change. Something to watch

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring it!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Awesome weather yesterday! We went to Millennium Park and hiked 5 or 6 miles of the trails there. I know it’s been there for some time now but we never really get out that way. Just an incredible place to spend the day with miles and miles of paved trails.

Slim

Yesterday Barry was wondering about the lack of official snow fall reports from the lake shore. I too have to wonder why Holland dose not report snow fall amounts. Anyway here is a list of some CoCoRahs stations near the lake shore. There are a few CoCoRaHS stations in the Holland area but not too many. There is MI-OW-49-Holland NE. MI-OW-14-Holland NNW. MI-OW-2-Holland NNE. MI-OW-54-Spring Lake-NNW and there is MI-OW-60-Jennson-W. Of course one dose not know how often and how good they are at reporting snow fall amounts. At station MI-OW-49-Holland NE the total for November is reported as 15.0″… Read more »

Slim

Yesterday was a very impressive late November day with 98% of possible sunshine a H/L of 54/31. There was no rain or snow fall and the snow is all gone except for the snow piles, there is still some in the woods but that is it. And of course, there was that big Michigan win over Ohio State. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 65 was recorded in 1909 and 1990 the record low of 5 was recorded in 1977. The largest snow fall of 3.8” was recorded in 1952. The rain has now started… Read more »

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

What a great day yesterday. The weather was great and the Wolverines took down the Ohio State Buckeyes! I love it! What an incredible game.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That game was an instant classic. Two heavyweights going toe to toe for the 1st half, and then M turned on the jets after halftime and never took their foot off the gas. I’m happy for Edwards. He’s been the #2 back this season and when given the opportunity, he shined – busted hand and all. It’s been too long since the B1G has won a national championship. I hope this is the year.