Michigan made a statement yesterday with their beating up on Ohio in the second half leaving with a 43 to 23 victory over the Buckeyes. Congrats to the Wolverines who now own the title of the Big Ten East. Michigan captured the division title for the third time and finished the 2022 regular season 12-0 overall and 9-0 in conference play, the team’s first undefeated regular season since 1997. The Wolverines also clinched their third overall Big Ten East Division title and their second in as many years. They now play Purdue (8 and 4) for the Big Ten Championship title.
Rain can be expected today as low pressure lifts north out of the Gulf region. Some wet snow could mix in across Central Lower Michigan, but travel impacts are not expected. Rain amounts will be between a quarter to half an inch for SW Michigan with higher amounts to the east.
-- Today into Tonight -- The cutoff upper-level low formerly over Texas is being reincorporated into the midlatitude westerlies, and surface low pressure will deepen toward the lower 990s as it tracks through Indiana and Ohio today. Deformation zone precipitation to the north of this low will be with us for much of the day. HREF probability matched mean QPF gives areas southeast of Battle Creek and Lansing about 0.5 to 0.75 inches, trending down to about 0.25 inches around Holland - Grand Rapids - Alma, and about 0.1 toward Ludington. Cooler air advecting into the back side of the low may support some wet snow mixing in this evening before the precip ends, with the highlands of central Michigan being more prone to seeing any. Lake effect tonight will be limited by low inversion heights. Lows dipping below freezing Monday morning could support some icy patches forming mainly on overpasses if surface dewpoint depressions remain low enough to prevent evaporation, but most models are not on board with this idea as the air below the inversion will stay fairly well mixed tonight and much drier air at the base of the inversion will move in. -- Midweek -- The next eventful weather to affect us midweek will be carried by Rossby wave amplification over the central part of the country. By Monday night, two surface lows will have developed -- one in Manitoba underneath the upper level low, and one in Colorado underneath positive potential vorticity advection and favorable jet streak dynamics as the trough digs and sharpens. The Colorado low will hook through the western Great Lakes before consolidating into a deep and mature cyclone north of Lake Superior on Wednesday. Ahead of this low on Tuesday, mild air from the south-central US will advect our way and give us temperatures near 50 degrees Tuesday afternoon into much of the night. Behind the cold front Wednesday morning, temperatures will fall during the day as a portion of a subarctic airmass is advected our way. The coldest air will move through Wednesday night, though it won`t stay for long as the wave pattern remains fairly progressive and we will be back into warm air advection by Thursday night. Two potential impacts for Wednesday include wind and snow. Ensembles of the ECMWF and GFS suggest that westerly wind gusts pushing advisory criteria may happen behind the cold front, particularly near the lakeshore. And while ensemble spread of QPF is still quite large, generally the middle 50 percent of solutions is in the range of a quarter to half inch, a portion of which could fall as snow Wednesday afternoon, then a small amount falling as lake effect that would linger through the night. With surface temperatures likely dropping below 32 with nightfall Wed evening, then into the low to mid 20s by Thu morning, roads could turn slushy Wed evening then icy Thu morning.