Yesterday’s high in Otsego was 41.5° and the low was 33°.
We begin another roller coaster week today with temps in the 40s. Monday and Tuesday should be uneventful weather-wise. The most impactful weather of the week will occur Wednesday after a rainy Tuesday night. Temperatures on Wednesday will fall throughout the day from the 50s very early in the morning into the 20s by afternoon or evening. Winds could gust to 40 mph along with light snow at times. This could make for slushy and slick roads in some locations by late Wednesday.
Looking into early December, odds favor below-normal temperatures and slightly favor above-normal precipitation. Normal highs for early December are in the upper 30s to around 40, and normal lows are in the mid to upper 20s. Normal precipitation (liquid) is about 0.60”-0.70” and normal snowfall is a few inches.
-- Today -- Temperatures today will be near normal with light winds as short- wavelength split flow in the upper levels and lower-level ridging and high pressure translate through the area. The challenge is figuring out the extent that the stratus will clear today, with the absence of advection. Subsidence in the cloud layer this morning should act to thin out and evaporate the clouds, which already seems to be happening north of GRR. However, the RAP, HRRR, and ARW maintain enough moisture and deep enough mixing in the boundary layer to maintain some clouds. So a partly sunny forecast seems fair to deal with whichever way it balances out. -- Midweek -- The Colorado low that will develop later today, in response to an amplifying Rossby wave trough with advection of +PV anomaly, will hook toward Wisconsin and Lake Superior while deepening Tuesday night. Ahead of this surface low, southerly winds will transport mild air into Lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon through part of Tuesday night. Showers will develop Tuesday night as moisture is transported northward by a 50 knot low-level jet. Cold frontal passage in the early morning hours of Wednesday may have just enough instability according to the NAM and GFS to support a chance of thunder. Cold air advection behind the front should support mixing of roughly 40 mph wind gusts to the surface on Wednesday. Rain should change to snow by the daylight hours of Wed morning, but the snow from the synoptic cyclone won`t last very long as mid-to-upper-level subsidence and dry air advection desaturates the DGZ. There may be sufficient depth of cold air from the surface into part of the DGZ for lake effect snow showers to persist into part of Wednesday night, though limited upstream moisture should reduce the intensity. The most likely impact would seem to be icy patches forming on roads (bridges and overpasses first) where snow showers persist as temperatures drop into the 20s late Wednesday. -- Late Week -- The wave pattern across the CONUS remains fairly progressive late in the week, and milder air should advect back into the area on Friday, ahead of the next trough and surface low to pass through on Saturday. Moisture appears to be limited with this wave, and QPF in most of the ensemble members is paltry.