We can expect filtered sunshine through high-level cloudiness today as temperatures push toward a high near 40 degrees. This somewhat boring weather pattern should break into a more active tendency towards rain then perhaps some snow in the Thursday timeframe though the track of that system is still up in the air. With the exception of today, it appears most of the week will remain cloudy so we hope for at least some rain or snow events to break the monotony.
Grand Rapids Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.94°N 85.61°W 1 15 grr
Lansing Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.71°N 84.57°W 1 15 lan
Kalamazoo Forecast7-Day Forecast 42.29°N 85.58°W 1 15 kzo
-- High altitude clouds today -- Though there may be some sunshine today, it should be mostly filtered through high clouds. Winds increasing to a moderate breeze from the south-southeast will transport slightly warmer but dry air back into the area. -- Rain Monday with a chance of freezing rain in central Mich -- A developing Colorado Low on Sunday will move over Iowa on Monday. Deep moisture transport and dynamic lifting ahead of this low will develop precipitation over Lower Michigan during the day on Monday into part of the night. Ensembles put the the most likely QPF in the quarter to half inch range through Monday night. A several-thousand foot deep warm layer above 2000 feet with temperatures between 0 and 5 C will be present through Monday night, eliminating any potential for snow. The only remaining challenge is the freezing rain potential north of Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant after precipitation onset during the day. This is a pretty marginal setup for freezing rain given the tendency for warm air advection at the surface and expected temperatures hovering near 32 early on. The NAMNest, NAM, and ARW do paint a tenth to quarter inch of QPF falling as freezing rain in Osceola/Clare counties, but the actual amount that may occur is likely to be quite a bit lower than this for several reasons. The potential for freezing rain comes almost entirely from the antecedent dry air in the near-surface layer, which given a sufficient rate of precipitation falling through it and evaporating, may cool (wet-bulb) temperatures to just below 32 for a short time. The notable differences in the antecedent dew points Monday morning among the HREF member models can be attributed to how each model handles the downward mixing of very dry air from just above the boundary layer today into tonight upstream in Indiana/Ohio. The onset of appreciable precip rates is still a little in question but doesn`t appear likely until afternoon. Even if wet-bulb temperatures do cool off below 32, the efficiency of rain freezing on contact likely won`t be anywhere close to 100 percent. This efficiency would be modulated by a balancing act of precipitation that is heavy enough but not too heavy, air temperatures that likely won`t be much colder than 32, and the extra wildcard of road surface temperatures which will probably also be marginal depending on location and material. Our official forecast is in favor of icing amounts generally a few hundredths of an inch in central Michigan, likely to melt Monday night. WPC probabilities for freezing rain amounts greater than 0.10 inch is 10 to 20 percent. Lingering light rain showers showers Tuesday may change to light snow showers Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.