Good morning. Even though yesterday with a low of 24 was one of the coolest days so far this month it was still warmer than average. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 35/24 that 24 was just before midnight. There was a trace of snow fall, no sunshine and no snow on the ground. For the month the mean is 34.9 and there has been just 0.6” of snow fall. The overnight low so far is the current temperature here at my house of 21. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 53 was set in 1928 and the record low of -13 was set in 2015 the record snow fall of 7.2” was set in 1963.
The record keeper of “averages” or what some may call “normal” is the National Centers for Environmental Information or NCEI for short. The U.S. Climate Normals Quick Access is a tool provides graphs and tables of average temperature, precipitation, and snowfall at more than 15,000 U.S. observation stations. The l Latest 30-year period is (1991-2020). There is also a 15 year period and you can look back at the old 30 year average 1981-2010.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals
The January 30 year mean at Grand Rapids is 24.8. At East Grand Rapids it is 23.8. At Ionia it is 22.3. At Lansing it is 23.9. At East Lansing it is 24.7 and to the east at Flint it is 23.0. At the lake shore at Muskegon, it is 26.6. At Holland the January mean is 25.9. So in January the closer the lake the warmer the average mean is except for East Lansing where it is about a warm as Grand Rapids. In July the average mean at Grand Rapids is 72.8 at East Grand Rapids 71.2. At Lansing the July mean is 71.8 and at east Lansing the mean for July is 72.1. At Flint it is 70.9. At Muskegon the July mean is 71.9 and at Holland the July mean is 71.6. In July on average the mean is the warmest at Grand Rapids then east Lansing then Muskegon next is Lansing and Flint is the coolest. So what to make of all that? Well if the H/L is the same at all locations. Also of note we all know about the “heat island” in cities well I work downtown several nights a week and in the winter time it is very common for the temperature to be up to 5° warmer downtown than at my house.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2023
— DRY WEEKEND WITH SOME SUN DEPENDING ON LOCATION —
A CONFIDENT SKY FORECAST REMAINS ELUSIVE TODAY AS THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
VICINITY OF US-131 FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE A SHARP CLEARING
LINE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED JUST WEST OF US-127. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. ADVECTION IN THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND 925 MB
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY, SO WHILE THE SHARP CLEARING LINE MAY
WAVER A BIT DURING THE DAY, HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WON’T MOVE
VERY MUCH. THE THIN CLOUD DECK OVER US-131 COULD SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING, BUT WILL STICK WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST TODAY.
MEANWHILE, US-31 NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY AS
JUST ENOUGH WESTERLY WIND IN THE CLOUD LAYER NUDGES THE LAKE-
ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER LAND.
MILDER AIR RETURNS SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW. CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO FILTER IF
NOT BLOCK THE SUN EVEN IF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT.
— RAIN LIKELY MONDAY TO TUESDAY —
A LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL TRACK THROUGH IOWA ON MONDAY THEN MICHIGAN ON
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST AND SHOULD BE
OCCLUDED AND SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH MICHIGAN. THE
ONSET TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT QUITE NAILED DOWN AND IT
COULD START BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ICE PELLET OR FREEZING RAIN MIX BRIEFLY AT THE
ONSET MAINLY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN, ONLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INITIALLY DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR PROMOTING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF
THE AIR TO BELOW 32 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEING THE MODE, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY BE RAIN ON MONDAY. THE MIDDLE
50 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE QPF SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF PRECIP BY TUESDAY.
— POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY —
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THURSDAY. SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MAY
ALLOW PRECIPITATION THERE TO FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE PATTERN AND THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE FOR
QPF IN OUR AREA RANGES FROM ZERO TO OVER AN INCH, AND NOT ALL OF
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERTING THE ENTIRE QPF INTO SNOW. SO,
THE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR US REMAIN ANYTHING BETWEEN A COMPLETE
MISS, TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, TO A 6+ INCH SNOW EVENT… NOT A
SURPRISE FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS OUT AT DAY 6.
Detailed Forecast Grand Rapids
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Light and variable wind.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40. South southeast wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
M.L.King Day
Rain, mainly after 1pm. High near 41. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday Night
Rain, mainly before 1am. Low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 44.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 35.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Detailed Forecast Holland
Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40. South southeast wind 8 to 14 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. South southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
M.L.King Day
Rain, mainly after 1pm. High near 42. South southeast wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night
Rain, mainly before 1am. Low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 44.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 35.
Wednesday
Cloudy, with a high near 38.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Detailed Forecast Lansing
Today
Sunny, with a high near 31. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
M.L.King Day
A slight chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain before 10am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Monday Night
Rain, mainly before 1am. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 46.
Tuesday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 35.
Wednesday
Cloudy, with a high near 38.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31.
Thursday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35.
Snowstorm is still on track! Get prepared now!
GET TEADY – possible snowstorm for this Thursday! Stay tuned for later updates!
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For anyone who looked at my post today I see I will have to put a small update in. The part for the July daily averages should have been if on a day in July all locations have the same high/low of say 85/66 then the departures from average would be the lowest at Grand Rapids and East Lansing and the greatest at Flint and East Lansing. That would be according to the current 30 year averages. The same would hold for any day in January with a H/L of say 42/31.
Slim
It looks like we get a UVI of 2 from 12:30-1:30 today. That’s probably the first time since November
Good info as always, Slim
Very sunny here, but a chilly 17 currently. Took the dog for a walk. It was only the third of fourth time this season that I needed to wear a winter coat.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
I am guessing today at a low of 15f will be one of the coldest days of the month. Remarkable persistent warmth.
Check out the temperature contrast in N. Lower Michigan this morning. It’s 23 degrees in Traverse City but only 3 degrees in Grayling. These cities are only about 40 miles apart. Goes to show you what clouds vs no clouds does.