So far it seems there is a dome over Allegan County, only a trace of rain as of the writing of this post at 4:30 am. There is rain still trying to come across the lake however the lake is eating it up before it comes onshore. There is still hope for widespread rain but the question is how much. The latest QPF forecasts are showing less than a quarter-inch along the lakeshore counties with greater amounts to the south and east of Grand Rapids.
Here is the latest forecast discussion from the NWS: I will update later today.
-Thunderstorms, with a risk of gusty winds early this morning We`ll be watching the line segments moving east from southern Wisconsin early this morning. The first one north of MKE extrapolates to the lake Michigan shoreline near MKG around 5 am and continuing ESE from there through the early morning hours. These segments are not too impressive but a swath/corridor of gusty winds to 40 mph may affect the area from I-96 south early this morning. Once the early morning storms exit, some potential exists for new storms, possibly strong or severe, to fire south and east of GRR by afternoon. SB Capes in excess of 3000 j/KG are shown to develop as dew pts near 70 push in from the southwest. Sfc convergence is decent through around 4 pm before the low level flow becomes more westerly with the cold frontal passage. So the period from about Noon to 4 pm will need closely monitored around JXN, after which time the main svr wx risk will shift south of MI where SPC has an enhanced risk. -Occasional convection Saturday through early Monday Fast west-northwest flow aloft remains over the Grtlks Rgn through the weekend. Models are in good agreement on the next shortwave in this pattern dropping through Lwr MI on Saturday, possibly triggering another round of convection. There are some slight timing differences but this feature looks to arrive already by mid morning after some sfc heating/instability has had a chance to develop. Instability Saturday will be lower than today since dew points will be a bit lower behind today`s fropa, but capes around 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear over 35 kts will still be sufficient to support the possibility of some stronger storms especially east of Hwy 131. After a brief period of quieter weather Saturday night into early Sunday, a digging nrn stream trough over the Northern Plains induces a decent low level jet from MO to srn MI by 00Z Monday. Expect convection to develop on the nose of this low level jet and returning warm front later Sunday, with some stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall possible. Could be an active period in west Michigan Sunday evening as upstream trough continues to dig/deepen and cold front approaches from the west. Convective threat looks to finally end early Monday with the passage of that strong sfc cold front. -Warm through the weekend; cool down early next week Guidance continues to support highs of 85 to 90 through Sunday although humidity not too high with dew points generally around 60 after today`s frontal passage. Deep upper trough arrives overhead by Tuesday behind the Monday`s strong cold front, resulting in chilly highs only in the 60s. That cold air doesn`t stick around long however with temps rebounding back near normal for mid week.
Thunder was nice to hear…8/10 of an inch of rain…every little bit helps.
Nice storm this morning (at least for the rain!). I am definitely looking forward to the cooler temperatures early next week, we will need to enjoy it as it seems unlikely we will have highs in the 60s again until September.
I had .71 inches of rain here this morning. Garden is in heaven!!
1.15 inches of rain with thunder and lightning this morning – when was the last time we saw this? March 26th was the last time we had over an inch of rain in a 24 hour period. We are now at 1.40 inches for the month and have exceeded last month’s total of 1.32 and April’s total of 1.24 inches. Hopefully, this is a trend…
The rain has now stopped here the event total is 0.80″ With cloudy skies it is still a cool 66.
Slim
Yes the cold front is though let’s bring even more cooler temperatures to west Michigan shuuuuu kind of quiet with out mookie around town he or she must down in Florida again
where the heat and humidity never ends loll…..Have a super cooler weather weekend my friends INDY ….
Here at Grand Junction we have received 1″ very blessed as they makes it 2.75 for the month.
Hallelujah! It has been raining for more than one hour here. The crops and my grass are rejoicing.
Yes, there was a thundershower here this morning. Nothing severe here, I did record 0.70″ of rain. The overnight low here was 66 with that rain before that it was in the low 70’s most of the night. At this time it is 66 with some light rain still falling.
Slim
Crazy lightning show this morning! Haven’t seen that in a while. Just over an inch of rain, but it came so fast and hard it just washed away without much soaking in. Better than zero rain.
…THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEGAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN KENT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 AM EDT…
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.
…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN KENT COUNTIES…
At 613 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Grand Rapids to near Otsego, moving east at 60
mph.
HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE…Radar indicated.
IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION…
Issued at 515 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021
Wake low related winds have developed north of the convection in
the Ludington area, with gusts over 50 mph recently reported at
the Ludington buoy and Big Sable Point. Using HRRR sfc pressure
analysis for short term/nowcast guidance it appears these stronger
wind gusts will eventually spread south/southeast with time, and
could impact the MKG/GRR areas by 7 am (in addition to the
convection coming onshore). Gusts to 55 mph and power outages may
occur during the morning commute time.
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
Northern Allegan County in southwestern Michigan…
Southwestern Kent County in southwestern Michigan…
Ottawa County in southwestern Michigan…
* Until 630 AM EDT.
* At 545 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fruitport to near Saugatuck, moving southeast
at 60 mph.