With El Nino in control last year we ended up with above-normal temperatures. January we will see closer to average with better chances of snow with several synoptic events in the extended forecast. I am not ready to go out on a limb with snowfall forecasts, we will have a better idea of how the events for next week will play out by Sunday with storm tracks.
2023 was in the top 5 warmest years in over 125 years of records and included multiple significant storms. Average temperatures were above normal and snowfall was notably below normal. Precipitation was a mix of above-normal and featured a very wet January to April and a very dry May to June.
Pattern Change
Our weather pattern changes to colder and snowier starting early next week. A winter storm is likely to affect somewhere in the region next Tuesday-Wednesday, but impacts on West Michigan depend on the track which is uncertain at this point. Stay tuned for further forecast information.
Forecast
Weather History
1912: Arctic air dominates Lower Michigan during the coldest January on record. Muskegon plunges to 12 below zero for a record low for the date.
1998: Moist southerly flow brings warm and wet weather to Lower Michigan. Highs in the 50s follow morning lows in the 40s as several days of thawing weather are observed during the first week of January.
1946: Record highs are set for a second day in a row across Lower Michigan as temperatures reach the mid and upper 50s.
On January 5, 2014, a strengthening low-pressure system passed just southeast of the area and dropped significant snowfall across all of Southeast Michigan. The heaviest snow fell along the I-69 corridor where 14-18 inches was reported, including 17.1 at Flint – their 3rd largest snowstorm on record! Detroit measured 10.6 inches, good for its 24th largest snowfall on record, while Saginaw reported 8.8 inches. In addition, the National Weather Service office in White Lake measured 14.6 inches, the largest snowfall in its abbreviated climate record which began in 1995.
Also, on January 5, 2005, the city of Saline in Washtenaw County was hit with a snowstorm and received a total of 8.5 inches of snow. This snowstorm lasted through the 6th.
U.S.A and Global Events for January 5th:
1880: Snow began falling in Seattle, Washington, and would continue for much of the week. When it was over, more than 5 feet of snow was recorded.
1884: One of only two days in history during which the temperature at Louisville, Kentucky, never rose above zero. The low was 20 degrees below, with a high of 1 below zero.
1888: Snowfall amounts of 3.5 to 5 inches fell over Sacramento, California. The heaviest snow in recent history was two inches on February 4-5th 1976. Click the link for a newspaper article from the Sacramento Daily Union, published on Jan 6th, 1888. https://goo.gl/vMTcJm
Forecast Discussion
A slight chance for flurries and/or freezing drizzle still exists for early this morning. However, the main limiting factor for this precipitation continues to be the minimal (if any) QPF, therefore if any drizzle does occur it would likely be trace amounts with little to no impacts. Late tonight through Saturday a northern stream system will track north of Lake Superior while a southern stream system brushes past towards the Mid-Atlantic. This puts Lower Michigan in a position of scattered light snow showers. Moisture begins to increase from south to north early Saturday with snow starting after 7am. Precipitation will continue into Sunday with snowfall amounts of around 1 inch or less looking most likely. - Light snow for Sunday The mid level trough shifts eastward through the CWA Sunday. Forecast profiles show deep moisture early but only weak lift. The DGZ is shown to be saturated. The soundings are cold, below freezing. Thus it looks likely that we will see a period of light snow on Sunday. Ensemble snowfall values have decreased with the latest runs, suggesting the area will struggle to see more than an inch of snow from this system. - Still looking at an impactful storm Mon Night into Tue Night The precipitation is trending a little quicker and temperatures have trended upward slightly. The latest model runs have shifted the 0 deg 850 mb isotherm at 00z Wed a little farther north into the CWA. The GFS and ECMWF show it lifting into the Holland to Alma line while the Canadian is further south. Thus an increased potential for a mixture of precipitation types exist for southern parts of the CWA. However, just north of this thermal ridge, strong 700 mb FGEN is noted with the trowal lifting up into that region on Tuesday. So where it does remain all snow, amounts could be heavy. This would include places like Big Rapids, White Cloud and Evart. However, lots of spread exists in the snowfall amounts with the system in all models, even for northern parts of the CWA. As a result, while confidence is fairly high that we will see impacts from this storm, how significant they will be is fairly uncertain.
Winter storm watches coming Sunday I’m thinking DDDD pay attention get ready let’s Go!! INDY
Since we are no longer getting CPC updates, I’ll throw them up here
Breaking Weather News>>>>>>>the preliminary RDB model snowfall for GR is 3 to 6 inches! Stay tuned for later updates, because these totals could go higher! Winter is back and get prepared now!! I love cold and snow! Bring it on!
Hey Rocky did you see the latest GFS run? Obviously way to far out we need to get through this first system but there could be another big storm system hot on the heels of the first system next week! Incredible!
Oh yes and that one could be even bigger! Winter is back!
The middle of January some areas of western Michigan maybe digging out of feets of snow lake effect snow machines is going to explode DDDDD let’s Go INDY
Sounds awesome!
The latest CPC is a thing of beauty! No warm air in sight! At lease we won’t be subjected to the constant posting of the cpc maps from the warm weather fanatics like they do any time they show above normal temps! Incredible! WOW!
Afternoon model run for GR
GFS: 9.4”
Euro: 8.4”
GEM: 3” (The GEM keeps the heaviest snow actually SE of Grand Rapids which doesn’t appear realistic at this point).
European brings the rain/snow line right up to the Grand Rapids metro area. GFS is fairly similar. That rain snow line will be a major factor in totals and thermals will be hovering near or just above freezing so more adjustments to come.
Thanks for the update and we are still on track for a good snowstorm! Keep that rain/snow line SE of GR! Multiple chances for snow later next week also! Good to see a major pattern change coming! It is going to get wild! Bring it on!
Where is the ice?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/03/us/great-lakes-ice-cover-climate/index.html
Excellent – more lake effect potential when the cold air shows up! Bring it!
Only 3/10 of one percent of ice coverage and the least amount of ice in 50 years? That’s hard to believe.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
From Michigan Storm Chasers:
Pattern flip to colder and stormier looking likely into mid January. El Niño also begins to weaken.
Who knew?
Let it snow let it snow let it snow…INDY
I can’t believe the delusions some of the Cold Weather Crazies think, that we are wrong when this entire winter has been warm and snow free! What exactly are we wrong about??
Here’s a great example of delusion!
Rocky (Rockford)
No doubt and I see a major snowstorm by the 3rd week of December! Mark it down and get ready!
December 2, 2023 10:12 am
Whoops! Rocky and several meteorologists have been calling for big snow since November!
I can’t believe the warm weather fanatics were wrong again!
Least snowy winter ever so far. And one of the warmest on record. How is that wrong? LOL
I can’t believe GR is nearing the middle of January and there is still no snow on the ground! I love short winters!
I can’t believe GR is getting ready for big pattern change and a possible visit from everybody’s favorite – “polar vortex”. Wow just wow, WOW! I love it!
I can’t believe GR is almost 30″ below average snowfall!
I see temps have been bumped up a few degrees for next week now. More rain/mix? I love these short winters!
Still lots of computer model spread. Its to early at this stage to know how it will pan out. I’ll throw out the numbers but at this stage I wouldn’t look to much into them.
Euro: 4.6”
GFS 15.4” (likely to high)
GEM: 4”
Modeling has shown recently a little more mild air getting pumped in bring a mix of precip. Still though it’s too early to latch on to an exact scenario and all these numbers will change again.
I’d agree, I think a storm and pattern change is highly likely, but the exact storm track is still not nailed down. Either way though… looks quite cold and windy behind the system. So winter is finally approaching
To add to the summary of 2023 the mean of 52.4 was the 2nd warmest at Muskegon, the 51.2 was the 3rd warmest at Lansing and the 50.1 was the 7th warmest at Grand Rapids. At the current time with just 3.2” of snowfall Grand Rapids is now -27.9” below average in snowfall for the winter season.
Slim
The temp data did not surprise me. What did surprise me was the precipitation. There was a six-inch swing from average between GR and Lansing. We’re only an hour away from each other.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 32/20 there was no rain or snow. The sun was out a reported 14% of the time. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 55 was in 1946 and the record low of -9 was set in 1968 and 2018. The record snowfall of 8.0” fell in 2022 the most on the ground of 17” was in 1999. Last year the H/L was 36/33 and there was 0.09” of rain and a trace of snowfall.
Slim
Here is a fun 2 week snow map for your viewing pleasure! No this is not a prediction, just showing the gravity of the upcoming pattern change! Get ready!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2024010506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
It is still too soon for snowfall predictions for next weeks storm, but clearly we will see a snowstorm, so buckle up and stay tuned for later updates! It is going to get wild! Rock n roll will never die!
Agreed. Any resemblance of an accurate prediction of accumulation, not to mention the track of the storm, is just not possible yet. The initiating disturbance is located south of the Aleutian islands – some 4500 miles away.
What? A pattern change to a more winter like set up! Who would have thought? Who wouldn’t want snow this time of year? Incredible!