We had a trace of snow yesterday (hmmm, how many traces make an inch?) The depth of frozen precipitation like snow is measured in tenths (0.1) of an inch and an amount less than that is similarly defined as unmeasurable and reported as a “trace.” So, traces of snow are considered as undefinable thus don’t add to our snowfall totals for the season.
No snow in the forecast today. We should see some sunshine until the clouds move back in again overnight. Chances of snow increase over the weekend though at this point, there is nothing to get excited about yet. Better chances of widespread snow come early next week.
Forecast
Weather History
1981: Arctic air is firmly entrenched across Lower Michigan with extremely cold temperatures prevailing for the first half of the month. Eight of the first twelve days of the month fall below zero at Lansing. This is the coldest morning with a low of 29 below zero. This is the all-time low for the month of January at Lansing and the coldest temperature of the 20th century there. The temperature falls to 20 below zero at Grand Rapids and 15 below at Mount Pleasant.
1999: West Michigan is digging out from 1 to 2 feet of snow, with drifts of several feet as the Blizzard of 1999 slowly winds down. Lake effect snow will continue for the next several days, however.
On January 4, 2016, lake effect snow developed along the shoreline of Lake Huron. While most locations did not measure snow, the eastern shoreline of the Thumb received 6 to 10 inches. A second snow band developed over Saginaw Bay and dumped 9 inches in the Saginaw Area. However, the snow band was so narrow that MBS airport recorded only a trace.
Also, on January 4, 1997, the temperature rose to 61 degrees in Flint and in Detroit. The normal high temperature for January 4 is only 30 degrees!
U.S.A and Global Events for January 4th:
1641: According to historical records, Mount Parker, a stratovolcano on Mindanao Island in the Philippines, erupted on this day. The eruption caused the formation of a crater lake called Lake Maughan. Click HERE for more information from The Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.
1917: A tornado with estimated F3 damage cut a 15-mile path and struck a school at Vireton in Pittsburg County, Oklahoma, killing 16 people. It ranks as the 4th worst school tornado disaster in U.S. history. You can read more about this tornado from the Sweetwater Daily Reporter in Sweetwater, Texas, published on January 10, 1917, by clicking HERE.
2018: NOAA’s GOES-East satellite caught a dramatic view of the Bombogenesis ‘Bomb Cyclone’ moving up the East Coast on the morning of January 4, 2018. The powerful nor’easter is battering coastal areas with heavy snow and strong winds, from Florida to Maine. Notice the long line of clouds stretching over a thousand miles south of the storm. The storm is drawing moisture all the way from deep in the Caribbean.
Forecast Discussion
ingering north flow lake effect showers will come to an end this morning, then surface ridging moves in place today and Friday. Dry conditions with a fair amount of sunshine is expected today. Afternoon temps should peak just below freezing in the upper 20s to low 30s. The center of the high passes to our east this evening and winds gradually shift southwesterly. Lake effect clouds increase tonight into Friday, and an increase in low level moisture may support periodic flurries Friday morning and early afternoon. - Risk for light snow over the weekend Models continue to show mid to upper level height falls as a trough tracks eastward through the Great Lakes Region. The DGZ moistens up later Friday night and remains moist through Sunday. Low levels saturate by Saturday and therefore we will feature relatively high POPs through this period. The best lift actually occurs Friday night as a coupled upper jet lifts through, but at this time, the low levels are shown to be unsaturated. Ensemble mean snowfall amounts are generally around an inch, but that could change if we end up with a little more lift. - Latest model runs continue to support an impactful storm Tuesday into Wednesday An impressive fold in the trop over the OH Valley into the MI supports a rapidly deepening storm system lifting up through the region during this period. The 00z model runs show much of the CWA is still advertised to be on the cold side of this storm track with the nose of the 850 mb zero deg isotherm staying southeast of a AZO to LAN line. Stronger FGEN is noted for the heart of the CWA along with favorable upper dynamics. Weakness in the 750 mb stability is advertised as well. Ensemble 24 hr snowfall amounts have trended up which makes sense given the favorable setup. As this deepening wave starts to pull away, the winds will increase considerably on Wednesday which will enhance the impacts. Ensemble gusts are shown to top 30 mph Wednesday. We will add impacts to the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
I’m thinking 50 mph winds are not out of the question Tuesday afternoon definitely brrrrrs watching for the B word 🤔 let’s Go Get Ready now!! InDY
Great news – the warm weather fanatics were wrong about keeping us in the above normal temp pattern and I was 100% correct about the upcoming pattern change! Funny how that works! The latest CPC shows below normal temps and above normal snowfall! How could it be? Incredible!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2024010418/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_23.png
The is the 18Z off the GEFS (full of numerous different members of the GFS ensemble). This low position would be very favorable for West MI.
You know it! Bring it on!
Great location of the low pressure to pound us with SNOW!
The lasted GFS and EURO are about on top of each other with storm track that’s exciting for us as we are in the sweet spot for heavy snows im thinking the B word will start coming out real soon with this system get ready get to the store now …LETS GO! INDY
Sounds great and let’s hope for a Big Daddy! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!
From NWS Chicago. Sounds like some of the 12Z guidance from this afternoon was an outlier and not within the ensemble
“The 12Z guidance offers a good lesson on maintaining an ensemble
approach to forecasting in order to see through the noise of individual model run-to-run changes. Specifically, the 12Z deterministic GFS run depicts a massive southeast shift with the storm system. In this case, a slightly lower amplitude depiction of the wave entering the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning ultimately produces a stronger but slower mid-level low displaced farther south by Tuesday. While this is an outlier from the broader ensemble envelope, this deterministic run can still provide some insight with how slight changes in upstream data can propagate significantly and produce a notable spread in ensemble guidnace with each passing day.”
Everything is still on track for a major snowstorm! Incredible!
With the possible system next week I am going to wait until Sunday before I get too excited about it. If it is still on the table then that would be the time to really take notice. In looking at the noted December 2022 event it looks like that was mostly a event that was mostly centered around Grand Rapids and now a wide spread event (for the most snowfall) My guess would be if this system is as deep and big as is advertised than it would be more like the February 2011 event. But don’t hold your breath for that kind of system.
Slim
Hey Rocky, check this out
This is from Illinois Storm Chasers. They just posted this on their FB page about 10 mins ago
“Stratospheric Warming event has been confirmed. This will displace arctic air southward in about 7-10 days. Coldest air the season coming!”
You know it and I have been watching this! Bring it!
For comparison, here is what NWS Northern Indiana has to say. Seems they are hitting the points I made below. Quite a contrast from NWS GR. Bottom line is stay tuned it could be a big one for us or maybe not. Time will tell.
“The GFS cluster is slightly farther north
with the trough axis compared to the Canadian which is farther south, slower, and weaker. 24 hours later and the clusters vary further with speed and amplification of the trough as it exits over the eastern Great Lakes. This tells me that the evolution from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday is volatile in the model guidance, which is critical to our forecast confidence at this distance and limits our specificity in forecast impacts.”
Latest forecast discussion has been posted. NWS GR uses the “B” word. This is the second time that I’ve seen it being used. The first time was Ryan Hall’s vid yesterday.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
Interesting they bring up the Dec. 22 2022 blizzard
That would be crazy if we had another 2022 blizzard. Of course that was hit or miss depending on location, but someone could get a lot if this pans out
Well reading the NWS Grand Rapids update almost seems a little chilling. I know it’s still a long ways out but they seem to think that a major storm will be very close by but also a threat for rain is there. They also referenced the ensemble members I alluded to. They are much better with all that than I am.
One other thing I’d like to point out is the GFS and the GEFS are different. The GFS is one and the GEFS has multiple members of the ensemble. It’s important to look to those for guidance as well. I’m not as experienced with the GEFS ensemble members although I can get a general output idea. I’d defer that to the NWS to pick through.
Afternoon model runs
For GR:
Euro: 6.1”
GFS: 5.6”
GEM: 2”
The afternoon update from NWS GR should offer a good read in about an hour.
So people can see the trends:
Morning Euro: 10.8”/Afternoon: 6.1”
———
Morning GFS: 11.5”/Afternoon: 5.6”
———
Morning GEM: 10”/Afternoon: 2”
———————————————-
As you can see a wide spread and models don’t have a clue at this point. The range of solutions is vast. This is the first big lowering of totals I’ve seen. Is it a trend we could be seeing to come? Time will tell I guess. It’s all contingent upon the ejection and timing.
Well the 12Z suite of models are not being kind at all. There is more spread now then I think there has been in the model runs. The GFS has remained most consistent but has move the track further SE basically GR over to Detroit as the bullseye. The GEM shows the system not wrapping up and deepening and actually moves the low pressure east of Ohio just brushing us with snow. The European actually shows a more northern solution with rain actually getting into the southern half of lower MI. Needless to say the forecast is all over the board and no one really knows at this time. I look forward to when this reaches the CONUS. We should get a better picture then.
12Z GFS and GEM continue the uncertainty. Will update again around 3 once the Euro comes in.
It’s Winter…there is always snow. No worries.
What’s people’s thoughts on the twice a day model updates I’ve been doing? Yay? Nay?
Curious on feedback.
I think you know my answer – keep the updates coming 2 times per day! The more info about a possible major winter storm the better! Keep it rocking and rolling! Winter is the BEST!!
That is what this blog is for, keep them coming
Currently the track of the Low pressure is a sweet spot for West Michigan on Tuesday as of now I can see definitely blizzard conditions Tuesday evening with Winter storm watches coming Snday afternoon 8 to 10 inches of snow im going with as of now!! INDY
I certainly think it’s informative. Especially when 4-7 days out it’s interesting to see how much the models change
Wow I cant believe we are -27.2” below average in snowfall (Slim’s stat below)… it does look like a pattern change is likely and the storm is on track for now. If we can get 10″ of snow and then some lake effect and clipper systems through mid-January, we might be able to catch up a bit.
Of course we average around 20″ or something in January, so we would need 4+ feet this month to catch up
Morning model update for my inland folks
For Lansing:
Euro: 12.2”
GfS: 12.1”
GEM: 12”
**Keep in mind also models can sometime inflate snow totals at a distance. Just something the keep in mind
So as I stated the trend in all the main models you look at this cycle has been for a further SE track of the surface low therefore a colder solution. While they disagree on how deep the low gets, snow totals on each are surprisingly similar. The model that shows the deepest surface low is the Euro. Now keep in mind this could either just be a change in modeling for one run or could be a start of a trend. Also keep in mind if it moves further SE that would move the heaviest snow towards Detroit.
Morning model update:
For GR:
Euro: 10.8”
GFS: 11.5”
GEM: 10”
Kyle, Thanks for the update.
Slim
The latest trend in modeling has been for a colder solution with less rain mixing in. Will post snow totals on each of the models shortly.
What? A pattern change! I predicted this about a week ago based on the teleconnector trends! Who knew! What? We will see snowstorms in January? What? It will not stay above normal for temps all winter? Who would have thought?
Ryan Hall’s take on the impending pattern change:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhweMPHvmlE
I watched this last night… we shall see!!
He is far more accurate and entertaining that anyone here. 🙂
Yes good videos, but I would prefer better lead time for this pending pattern change! The data was looking good about a week ago!
This possible storm has been discussed since last week. A week’s notice is not common. A two-week notice is almost unheard of, but it has happened with this one.
This is old news and already been predicted, but he does have interesting videos!
The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 24. It has been a very warm winter season so far and the coldest it has been so far is 18 and that was recorded way back in November. There was officially a trace of snowfall yesterday and there is a trace of snow on the ground a trace is the most that has been on the ground here in Grand Rapids this season so far and that has happened now a total of 10 times (including today)
slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/30 there was 0.01” of precipitation and a whopping trace of snowfall. For the season GR remains at 3.2” and that is -27.2” below average. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 60 was set in 1997 and the record low of -20 was set in 1981. The wettest was 2.15” in 1993 the most snowfall of 6.3” fell in 1941. The most on the ground was 17” in 1999. Last year the H/L was 43/34 and there was 0.09” of rain fall.
Slim
Breaking News>>>>>>the Arctic Oscillation is showing signs of tanking by mid month = possible polar vortex! Get prepared now!
I’m looking forward to some snow. I bought a new snow blower this past summer when it was 80 out and I would like to see if it works..
Bring on the snow and the polar vortex and then tons of lake effect! It could get wild around here! Stay tuned for later updates!! it could be a WOW!