We say a sad farewell to meteorological summer today and look toward a fall that is now upon us. New outlooks from the CPC shows expectations of a cooler than normal September – just goes to show how model data can change from day to day. Generally we see a cool down during fair week which would have been next week if it were not for the COVID pandemic. This is the first time in the 168 year history of the Allegan County fair has been canceled with the exception of the beginning of WWII.
We have some showers moving through Allegan County this morning. We have moderate to abnormally dry conditions in southern Michigan even with the heavy rains we received last week. We had over three inches here at the station on the 29th, all the puddles from standing water were gone in a few hours which shows how dry it has been most of the summer.
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Forecast Discussion
-- Showers and some thunderstorms mostly tonight-- A weak frontal wave is moving through the area early this morning. This brings in around 1.5 inches of precipitable water to the area near and southwest of GRR. The low level jet axis is north of GRR and we are on the tail of that low level jet. Instability is marginal at best, with some suggestion of thunderstorms southwest of Allegan around sunrise. There are showers with this and they will more than anything impact the area near and southwest of GRR mostly till around 8 am or so. The showers will move out by mid morning. As for the precipitation event tonight a 160 knot upper level jet feature in the Gulf of Alaska early this morning caught my eye. That feature races southeast and is what helps to cause the precipitation event this evening. While the core of that jet is forecast to be over Lake Superior this evening, there is a southern stream jet feature that comes in phase with it so that enhances the deep lift this evening over most of our CWA. Thing is the southern stream jet axis is south of us so this will not be a severe weather event. I like to call these events "Jet Lift" event. "Jet lift" events just about always bring measurable precipitation to this area. This brings all of the CWA into the greater than 1.5 inches of precipitable water area between 6 pm and and 8 am Wednesday. There is some low level jet support during the mid evening hours near I-96. Instability is not great but it is enough for thunderstorms. Some of our high res models have areas with greater than 2 inches of rain from this event. That would mostly be in the I-69 area. This sort of feature typically results in narrow bands of heavy rainfall. It is hard for the models to get the location correct with this sort of event, so I would say expect some rain tonight but do not be surprised if isolated locations in CWA, likely south of a Muskegon to Alma line, locally get more than an inch of rain tonight. Most locations should see less than a quarter inch. -- Clearing Wednesday but still warmer than normal-- The jet feature causing the rain tonight quickly moves out of the area by midday Wednesday. That is because there are two more jet cores tracking along the polar jet with about 30 degrees of longitude between them. The next jet core quickly digs a deeper trough by Wednesday night over the Dakotas. This action causes shortwave ridging over our area so skies should clear by midday. With the polar jet north of us and the southern stream jet axis near I-80 in the afternoon on Wednesday that keeps us in the warm air but not in the "summer like" hot and humid air. So, one more day of warm temperatures (near 80 for the high) with some afternoon sunshine. -- First cold front Thursday, little in way of precipitation-- Getting back to our digging polar jet core, The first of the two heading this way tracks over northern lower Michigan Thursday during the day but this time the southern stream jet is well east of here and will not interact with it. That means even though this is a decent cold front (850 temp falls around 10c between 2 pm Thursday and 8 am Friday) we do not have much mid level moisture and there is mostly sinking air over us at mid levels. In fact in the DGZ the mean RH is under 30 percent through the day Thursday. That is not a good thing for rain, trust me on this. So this will be a dry frontal passage for sure. However it will still bring in cold air for Friday but with the polar jet north of us still, skies should be at most partly cloudy. Friday highs will struggle to make 70 degrees. Which will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday. -- Rather impressive early next week-- Another in the never ending series of Pacific system develops a decent storm over western and central Alaska by Monday. That builds a large upstream ridge over western North America from Lower California to eastern Alaska. This then causes a 140 knot polar jet core to dive into a deepening central North America trough. This time though the polar jet ends up well south of Michigan (on both the GFS and ECMWF for numerous past runs and the current run). It may go negative tilt. This has the makings of early fall storm with very strong winds (gales???) over the Great Lakes and significant precipitation in the Monday to Wednesday time frame. It will get very chilly behind that cold front, I could see highs struggling to make 60 Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. I do want to point out the details of this need to be worked out so don`t change any of your plans yet.
Well, we received some rain! All 0.05” of it, almost made the ground wet but not quite. It is beyond dry here now.
Goodbye to the summer of no heat waves and welcome to fall and winter! The best time of year!
Light rain and thunder here now. I enjoy the warm days and cool nights. My favorite time of year.
Accuweather came out with their first winter guess and it will make Mookie, Barry and myself rather happy. Indy and Rocky not so much. According to their guess this winter should be warmer but a chance of wetter than average. So while there is a chance of a snow storm or two there should be major melt downs in between (if their guess is right)
Slim
I will already guess Rocky, Bill Steffens & Kirkwood’s prediction: Very cold and 100+ inches of snow for this winter! Copy, paste and repeat for every winter prediction, every year for them!
I love tracking Winter storms let’s hope for a good Winter with tree’s already at 10% changng color in the Upper peninsula and with 30’s for lows coming next week the % will really go up and just like inches of snow this Winter fingers crossed….INDY
It’s been so dry here that some leaves have already changed color.
We have more dead leafs then ever I believe on the ground already im getting out my rake this weekend .INDY
I would be fine with that, especially now that I have a business parking lot as well as my own property to clean off. Fits right in with our recent Winters when there seems to be more rain than snow.
This Summer will be remembered as a long, hot, and extremely sunny one. One of the longest stretches of days 80+ in a row, well over average # of 90 degree days, record # of days in a row over 90 in Muskegon, records tied or broken for warmest overnight lows, and once again to much humidity. Not sure if we broke the sunshine record, but it had to be close. Can’t wait for the drier air as today the dew points are once again to high.
Great recap of the long HOT summer (something I was calling for since May)! Some on here seem to be spinning it already.
According to today’s accuweather winter outlook they are calling for a mild and wet winter.
Slim
Perfect! As some would say, “Bring it”.
Great facts Slim as always August was a decent month had a few cooler nights and comfortable afternoons nothing really hot I will take it… Labor day weekend looks fantastic and cool temps in the 60’s great fire weather as we say so long to Summer have a super Tuesday INDY …
For the month of August Grand Rapids had a mean of 72.0 that is a departure of +1.2. The high for the month was 91 on the 24th and 26th the low was 52 on the 19th there was 2.60” of rain fall below the average of 3.59”. At Muskegon the mean was 72.2 that is a departure of +2.3 the high was 91 on the 14th and the low was 49 on the 5th there was 2.22” of rain fall the average there for August is 3.39” At Holland the mean was 71.3 that is a departure of +0.3… Read more »
Hey Slim, posted this late last night, not sure if you saw it? If you head back to the Ludington/Pentwater area again, make sure to hit Summit Park on Lake Michigan. Bortells fishery is right across the street. It’s outstanding takeout seafood! Summit Park beach is beautiful and isolated. My wife and I like to get Bortells Fish and take it across the street to eat it at the park and listen to the waves crash in.
https://www.visitludington.com/stories/summit_park_on_lake_michigan_in_ludington
Andy I seen that I will check that out the next time we head that way. Thanks
Slim
No problem Slim! I think you’ll love it there! Great beach for rock and beach glass hunting too!
80 degrees yesterday to finish another warm month. And approximately 75% of total sunshine in August too!
It looks like soon fall will be in the air. I recorded 0.05″ of rain fall overnight so just enough to dampen the ground. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 66 here at my house the latest reading from the airport was 67 no rain was reported at GRR overnight.
Slim