We are now in the part of summer when the temps are generally the warmest of the year. This week we will see highs in the mid to upper 80s with small chances of rain until we get into the weekend.
We had .07 of an inch of rain yesterday which brings us to 3.37 inches for the month. Yesterday’s high was 77° and the low 66°.
Forecast Discussion
--Patchy fog this morning, otherwise sunny today-- GOES IR imagery at 07z shows gradual clearing of mid/high clouds as lingering rain departs eastward. With this clearing, patchy fog will be possible this morning, mainly in southern areas (near the I- 94 corridor), where the ground is wet from Sun rainfall. Any fog will erode within a few hours after sunrise as boundary- layer mixing deepens. Abundant sunshine is in store for today, with only some fairweather cumulus expected. --Chance of showers/t-storms Tue morning, mainly north-- Attention then turns to a vigorous shortwave impulse that will emerge from the northern Rockies tonight, with an associated surface low consolidating over the northern plains. Strengthening low-level warm advection/lift should support convective development well NW of the region Mon night, which may subsequently reach the northern CWA on Tue morning, per deterministic CAM guidance and 00z HREF. Confidence in this scenario is medium, as any convective cluster will likely be weakening as it outpaces greater instability. With this update, chance PoPs have been added on Tue morning for northern counties. --Risk of severe thunderstorms Tue night and Wed-- By Tue night, the forecast area will be situated well within a broad warm sector, with surface dewpoints likely rising into the mid/upper 60s F. However, RAP guidance indicates only modest instability (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) within a narrow pre-frontal corridor on Tue night. Additionally, despite strong midlevel height falls/forcing for ascent reaching the warm sector, the southward extent of convection on Tue night may be limited by pronounced convective inhibition (e.g., 700 mb temps of 12-13C). Nevertheless, given strengthening deep-layer shear (35-50 kts by 12z Wed), a conditional risk of severe thunderstorms exists, mainly for NW counties through Wed morning. The main risks with any severe thunderstorms will be damaging gusts and large hail. Depending on several factors (e.g., cold-frontal timing, the placement of possible outflow boundaries, and the extent of cloudiness), surface-based instability may materialize within a brief window on Wed within a portion of the forecast area--perhaps with renewed convection and a limited severe-weather risk. However, confidence in this scenario on Wed is low. --Thu and beyond-- Global ensembles have lately trended upward with precip probs on Thu night into Fri morning. This signal is associated with a subtle midlevel impulse diving SE into the region. Some forecast profiles exhibit MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts at 12z Fri, suggesting that organized convection may be possible, but confidence is low at this range. Only chance PoPs will be carried with this update. Precip timing/coverage into the weekend becomes more uncertain. EPS and GEFS means show broad agreement in the placement of large-scale features over the CONUS and southern Canada, with a belt of fast WNW flow aloft through the Great Lakes. A surface baroclinic zone in the region should provide some focus for rain/convection, but ensembles show considerable spread in the placement of surface-low positions. Chance PoPs will be carried for Fri night into Sun night.
I was looking to see the weather forecast for England and this is what I found from the UK Met UK 5 day weather forecast Monday 18 Jul – Friday 22 Jul Headline: Exceptionally hot for many areas. This Evening and Tonight: Most places dry and clear, but some showers in the far north and northwest, and potentially also the far southwest towards dawn. Very warm everywhere, but especially England and Wales where the heat could feel oppressive in urban areas. Tuesday: Exceptional and record breaking heat for much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland. Thundery showers in the… Read more »
London & South East England weather forecast Monday 18 Jul – Friday 22 Jul Headline: Extremely hot by day, staying very warm by night. This Evening and Tonight: A fine but very warm evening and night with patches of high level cloud, dry throughout. Feeling very muggy in the light winds, particularly in urban areas. Minimum temperature 23 °C. Tuesday: Another exceptionally hot day and night on Tuesday, with plenty of sunshine by day. Generally dry but the odd shower is likely into the evening and overnight. Maximum temperature 40 °C. Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Turning cooler and cloudier… Read more »
Wow, those are incredible temps for that area of the world.
The UK has issued their first ever Red Warning for the unprecedented temps. Did anyone catch any of The Open this weekend? St. Andrews is on the 54th parallel – approx 700 miles north of us. Saturday, it was close to 80 and the players were wearing short sleeves. I’ve seen some years when the guys were bundled up wearing knit caps. It’s supposed to be 80 again there tomorrow. 106 for Paris tomorrow. 113 for Madrid.
With a good amount of clouds yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 80/66 even with all of the clouds there was no rain fall. And just 12% of possible sunshine. The overnight low for today so far is 65. The record high for today of 101 was set in 1894 and the record low of 47 was set in 1924. This week looks to continue to have warm temperature and very little of any rain fall.
Slim
It was decent yesterday until later in the day. By about 6pm, it was 80 and the humidity was nasty. It was very uncomfortable.