We haven’t had any rain in Otsego since the 15th while areas to the north and east have seen quite a lot this month. We have some showers moving in from the lake this morning bringing hopes for another possible shot of rain. While we may see some rain this morning for the lakeshore counties areas east of US131 while have better chances of seeing popup storms with the kind of rain that doesn’t stop until the clouds drain out. This will be the last day when the relatively ‘cool’ air will be in place before the heat and humidity move in with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low 90s.
U.S.A and Global Events for July 23rd:
1788: Called the George Washington’s Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and “blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences”…some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations.
Port Royal and Hobb’s Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned.
Historical figures of the time logged the storm’s antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was “beyond description.” The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum.
2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record for rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O’Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008. Click HERE for more information from the State Climatologist Office for Illinois.
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 23 grrConus Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Scattered Showers and a Few Thunderstorms Today Mid level water vapor imagery this morning shows a distinct mid level wave moving across central Wisconsin. Ahead of it, PWAT values around 1.25" are advecting into our region. Some SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is available over Lake Michigan this morning, supporting the risk for thunder, though primarily just showers have been observed so far. As this mid level wave moves through the CWA today, the positioning by late morning and early afternoon will support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms near and east of US 131. Interior central Lower Michigan and down through the US 127 corridor looks to once again be a favored area for afternoon scattered storms, though model guidance does support some pop up showers/storms as far west as US 131 this afternoon. Rain amounts will generally average 0.25" or less, but localized splotches of 0.50" to 1.00" are definitely in play based on 00z HREF localized probability matched mean QPF. - Lower Risk for a Few Afternoon Showers Monday Less synoptic support is in place Monday for precipitation. Some convective allowing models have no rain on Monday while others do. If anything does develop, coverage would be scattered at worst and once again mainly focused east of US 131. HRRR soundings across central Lower MI from 18z onward do show some SBCAPE building but with a low shear environment, thus modestly eastward moving pulse-variety showers and a few storms are possible. Low POPs are being featured at this time, with 30% risk being highlighted. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 - Unsettled weather through the work week The mid to long term period begins with good consistency from the deterministic and the ensembles. The EC/Canadian/GFS continue to have the large upper level high situated over the desert SW. Models tend to do well in forecasting highs and this period is no exception. The high over the four corners will be the driver of the two upper level lows situated over the northern half of North America. The low situated over Hudson Bay will continue to dominate the weather over the Great Lakes through mid week. A large upper level trough extending from that low will provide the dynamics and instability to allow for the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. By that time the best forcing will be through the eastern portion of the state. - Warmer temperatures continue to trend from mid week By the middle of the week the upper level high begins to flatten, weaken and move southward. This allows the upper level lows to begin to shift southward and will have a larger impact on the weather pattern. The only caveat is that model consistency and consensus begins to diverge. A more zonal pattern will be in store. A deepening positively tilted mid level trough will set up by Thursday. The implications of this means more warm air advection from mid week into next weekend. 00Z Thursday 850mb temps from the EC is +21C. Currently that correlates to 90F at the surface with some members higher. The ECMWF standardized anomalies have +1 to +2 anomalies over the Northern Great Lakes. This continues to indicate that the latter half of the week will see above normal temperatures for this time of year which climatologically speaking is in the low to mid 80s. - Precipitation through the week Given the zonal flow there will be multiple chances for precipitation especially given a warm frontal boundary will be draped across the area. As previously stated, once the high becomes the less dominant forcer the model solutions begin to diverge. This is apparent Tuesday into Wednesday as the GFS has the region seeing some potential heavy precipitation but the EC is less bullish. Given this disparity there is a chance for showers and storms with a good opportunity Wednesday into Thursday. The best chance for showers and storms this week will be Friday with the passage of a cold front which will slightly cool highs into the weekend. Models diverge on a solution for the timing of this front, however the trend is rising chances.
Looks like most of the rain stayed north. I was hoping a thunderstorm would roll over.
.SHORT TERM…(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 A CAPE minimum (ML CAPE less than 500 j/kg in spots) is in place in our Eastern CWA towards Mt. Pleasant, Lansing and Jackson at 300 pm. This is occurring due to the clouds and precipitation that moved through in the midday and early afternoon hours. Much better instability (MUCAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg) is present to the west along the lake breeze front that is nudging east through the U.S. Highway 131 corridor. We expect the instability to build in the east as… Read more »
.UPDATE… Issued at 1146 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023 An easily identifiable shortwave is pivoting southeast across Lake Michigan as of 1130 AM. It is centered over far southeast Lake Michigan at this time with a general upper trough stretching north/south down the long axis of the lake. Mainly clear skies are in place west of the trough axis over Wisconsin, with cloudy skies and rain showers in place ahead of the trough over much of Southwest Lower Michigan. At the surface a trough is seen in the surface observations as well, with southerly winds trying to take hold… Read more »
We have had quite a few “below average” days recently, which I am greatly enjoying. We might catch back to average for the month with the upcoming heatwave though, we will see
You know it and we have been in overall near to below normal temp pattern for months!!!!! incredible!!
The official H/L yesterday at GR was 84/60. There was a trace of rain fall. 81% of possible sunshine, the highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 101 was set in 1934 and the record low of 45 was set in 1947 and 1985. The record rain fall amount of 2.65” fell in 2021. Last year the H/L was 90/68 and there was 0.64” of rain fall. At the current time there is a light shower here in MBY and I have had 0.02” of rain… Read more »
Thanks for the facts and that makes for another below normal temp day in GR! Truly an incredible pattern!
We had a ginormous .03 this morning!
The week ahead looks to be very summer like, with highs ranging from the upper 70’s today and could get as warm as the low 90’s before cooling back down to the low to mid 80’s, there is also several chances of showers and maybe a thunderstorm.
Slim