We removed copious amounts of leaves yesterday. We have a lot of trees on and around the property which is the downside of living in the woods. I generally mulch them with the lawn tractor but there were too many on the ground after an extended period of wet days. I use the mower to blow them into a line, rake, and then trailer them back into the woods where they belong.
Yesterday’s high was 52° and the low was 32°.
After a week of below-normal temperatures, we have changed our local weather patterns to a warm and mostly dry one. Today being our first in a series of warm and dry days. Today we will see temps back into the 60s with lots of sunshine, the weekend looks even better with highs rising back into the 70s.
Forecast Discussion
-- Dry with abundant sunshine through Sunday, turning much warmer -- Latest GOES IR imagery and surface obs indicate fair skies over Lower MI early Fri morning. The combination of low-level warm advection and midlevel anticyclonic vort advection (behind the departing trough axis) is forcing pronounced height rises aloft, with 500-mb height tendencies of 180+ m per 12 h noted over Lake Huron on the 06z RAP mesoanalysis. Forecast thermodynamic profiles are quite dry today, contributing to very warm convective temperatures--suggesting that fairweather cumulus development will be limited or precluded entirely. Given ongoing low-level warm advection and only thin/high clouds, highs today should reach into the mid 60s F at many locations. Pronounced surface pressure falls over the northern Great Lakes later this morning will occur in advance of a midlevel vort max and an associated cold front, and will result in a strengthening SLP gradient over Lower MI. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are forecast for most inland areas; somewhat higher gusts are expected at the lakeshore. Dry weather and abundant sunshine is then expected into Sun. Highs will likely reach into the mid 70s F for many inland areas on both Sat and Sun, aided by sustained low-level warm advection. Normal highs for Oct 23 (Sun) are 58F at GRR/MKG/AZO and 57F at LAN. -- Chances for rain next week, but high forecast uncertainty -- A vigorous mid/upper trough will dig/amplify over the western CONUS on Sat into Sat night, fostering cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. Models indicate that a surface cyclone will consolidate in the CO plains by Sun morning, then propagate northeastward. By 12z Mon, a seasonably deep surface low (985-990 mb) should be positioned in the vicinity of SD/ND/MN, with an associated cold front/baroclinic zone extending into the southern plains, placing Lower MI within an expanding warm sector. Thereafter, considerable forecast uncertainty still exists for midweek. The EPS mean has trended slightly slower with the arrival of a northern trough into British Columbia on Mon, supporting a weak/limited interaction between this trough and the lead trough/low over the northern plains. Of greater consequence, the EPS mean has also trended toward a deeper/slower southern trough over the southern Rockies on Mon. This trend is a manifestation of stronger phasing/interaction of this southern trough with a cutoff low that will approach the Baja Peninsula on Sun. A stronger-phasing scenario may favor subsequent cyclogenesis over the southern plains (along the aforementioned baroclinic zone) on Mon night and Tue, as suggested by the latest (00z) deterministic ECMWF and GFS solutions and an increasing number of EPS members. This cyclogenesis, if it occurs, would likely slow the eastward progression of the frontal zone into Lower Michigan considerably, perhaps into midweek. These factors contribute to high forecast uncertainty next week. The onset of chance PoPs will be maintained for Sun night, as supported by a fair number of EPS and GEFS members, but the period of highest PoPs--corresponding to the most probable arrival of the front/baroclinic zone--is now shifted to Tue night/Wed. Mild temps are also expected to persist through at least Mon.
The high overachieved today. Got to 71.
Fun fact: the final day in the 70s last year was Oct 20.
Wow, what a cold stretch we just experienced! Day after day with double digit below normal temps! Incredible!
We have been in a cool pattern for about a month… that looks to change today. Perhaps this is the start of an extended warm stretch into November? We will have to see, it seems like high temp uncertainty exists next week
Wow – almost 20 degrees above average this weekend! Summer is back!
Enjoy the weekend weather, because winter will be here before you know it! Winter is far the best season of the year! Who wouldn’t want snow in MI during the winter?
Funny. Didn’t you already say goodbye 70’s last week? Whoops
Yesterday afternoon was perfect with temps in the 50’s and the sun lighting up the tree colors. Spent 2 hours cleaning up apples from our apple trees, 20+ wheelbarrows of them. Never seen so many apples from these trees before. Wasn’t it just over a week ago we supposedly seen our last 70 degree day for the year?
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 54/34 there was a reported trace of rain fall and 37% of possible sunshine. The overnight low at GRR was a reported 33 (the current temperature there is 40) Here in MBY the low was 32 and that is the current temperature here. For today the average H/L is now down to 58/41 the record high of 85 was in 1953 and the record low of 18 was in 1976. The record snow fall for the date is 1.1” and that was also in 1976. Last year the H/L was 59/44 and… Read more »
We are now about 2/3rds of the way thru October 2022. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month so far is 48.9 that is a departure of -4.6 the high so far this month is 75 on 11th and the low so far is 30 on the 8th the first 10 days of the month there was only a trace of rain fall but in the last 10 days there has been a total of 2.45” that is still below the average of 2.59” there has been a trace of snow fall and that too is below the average… Read more »