Summer Heat Continues

Yesterday we had a high temp of 78 and the low was 49.  We currently have 67 at 6:30 am for a warm summer-like morning.  We have a thundershower near Owosso other than that there is no other rain on the radar at this time.  You may see an isolated shower or storm this morning, otherwise, our warming trend continues today with highs reaching or exceeding 80 degrees.  Rain chances will be mainly east of 131.

Forecast DIscussion

- Isolated showers/storms possible this morning

Weakening thunderstorms over WI early this morning will continue
propagating toward Western Michigan through the 09z-12z time frame.
MUCAPE does build ahead of this activity (and is currently building
as of this writing) with 1000-2000 J/kg available. However, with the
LLJ fizzling out over the region these storms should continue
decaying. A relatively short window for some leftover showers is
possible across the lakeshore region this morning before the threat
diminishes.

A few storms have managed to develop early this morning on the edge
of an elevated instability gradient overhead. Suffice to say, that
was not expected. We are including some POPs to cover this threat
and will continue monitoring trends. These will likely remain fairly
isolated but could produce some hail given how quickly they
developed lightning.

- Risk for Showers and Storms Highest Near/West of US 131 Tonight

Upstream convective development is looking very likely across
Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. The main forecast challenge
centers on the evolution of this activity tonight and our rain
chances primarily from 00z to 06z. Upper level divergence is favored
across WI today and some of this does try to work into our central
and western CWA this evening. Weak LLJ orientation favors WI for
development today while a more favorable shear environment exists
there. More intense surface based instability will be across
southern WI and northern IL (3000-4000 J/kg) but near and west of US
131 we may be able to support 1000-2000 J/kg. Of course, the
environment over Lake Michigan is hostile to surface based storms
right now. But...

It is tough to ignore the 00z HREF guidance with respect to a)
convective mode and storm motion, b) 4 hr max reflectivity trends,
and c) 6 hour and 24 hour probability matched mean QPF. There is a
good consensus among the members that these storms are going to make
a run for at least the western couple rows of counties against Lake
Michigan near and after 00z. Some members show a solid line of
storms. One would think that after storms develop in WI that there
would be a more southward propagation toward more extreme
instability (southern WI/northern IL) and away from Lake Michigan
given these storms will be surface based. However, looking at the 4
hr max reflectivity swath signals a different outcome. Neighborhood
probabilities of 50% or greater for 40 dBZ echoes with some
instability present are shown for a large portion of the CWA
tonight. HREF/WPC guidance shows a trajectory of higher rain totals
from WI toward western Lower MI with 6 hour and 24 hour QPF
guidance. In fact there is a good signal for 0.50"-1.00" of rain for
some locations if these storms make the trek.

While we are not included in a severe weather outlook at this time
(as of 3am), some storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail.
Mid level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km will be present along with
DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg. MLCIN could potentially be overcome
depending on the timing of the storms, so we`ll need to keep an eye
on things in the 00z-06z window.

- A few showers and storms possible Wednesday then dry Thur/Fri

It will feel pretty humid on Wednesday as dew points surge into the
upper 60s and high temps reach the low to mid 80s. With an upper
ridge overhead and weak surface winds, something to watch will be
diurnal cumulus / lake breeze shower development. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible, but overall coverage in these
setups is quite low. It would seem the US 131 corridor is the most
likely area for this to occur. Dry conditions are expected Thursday
and Friday.

- Some rain possible this weekend

Frontal passage still looks on track for this weekend with some
showers and thunderstorms possible. Rain does not look widespread at
this time but this is still a ways out. Expect cooler temperatures
into early next week.

newest oldest
Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Well I gave in and put the A/C on about 6 this evening. It’s not only warmer out today but the humidity is there. Nice and cool in the house tonight. 🙂

Mookie
Mookie

Wow 83 degrees in Traverse City! 86 degrees in Chicago.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

92 in TC now!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

80 here but the dew point is much higher than yesterday. Just may need to fire up the A/C to dry out the air in the house.

Slim

I just got back from a morning walk and for the 1st time this year I could take a morning walk without a jacket on. Boy it is nice to not have to grab a jacket to to outside. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 69 here in my yard.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

I find it funny how yesterday WOOD had only 59 degrees for Monday. It’s like they try to shock people – that was way colder than pretty much any forecast I could find.

I see they’ve already raised that to 68 degrees now.

Slim

Looks like the NWS kind of split the difference and has a forecast high of near 64 on Monday. But that is 7 days out so that could change a lot between now and then. Kind of like the long range guess that just a couple of days ago look like a cool down now looks like that cool down may or may not happen. Funny how day to day weather in the mid latitudes can do that.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Feels like summer again and it’s only May 10th! We will be 25-30 degrees warmer than last year at this time!

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 78/45. There was 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was a warm 65. The forecasted high today is 83. If it makes it to that 83 or better it would be a top 10 warmest for this date. The record for today is 89 so that looks safe. The overnight low here in MBY was 65. At the current time it is 67 here in MBY with cloudy skies.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

100% sunshine. That’s awesome. 🙂

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Well it was a noisy night last night about 3:30 AM. Some people probably have some minor hail damage to their car from last night. An isolated thunderstorm blew up near Lake Odessa and moved ENE. It rapidly intensified and reached peak intensity here in Portland. It dropped Quarter size hail and LOTS of lightning. It was one of the only storms in the entire state. It caught me off guard I was NOT expecting that.

Slim

Kyle, thanks for the information.
Slim