Slight Chance of Storms – Weather History


We have a warm 67° at 4:30 this morning,  Yesterday was the first day this year we ran the air conditioner.  Yesterday’s high/low temps were 86° / 66° with partly to mostly sunny skies.  We will see another unseasonably hot day with temperatures around 20 degrees warmer than what’s normal for this time of year. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, when there will also be the possibility of a few thunderstorms in the area.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning mainly east of US
131. Half inch to one inch size hail may occur.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible after 8pm mainly
near and west of US 131. Some storms could produce gusty winds and
hail.

Forecast Discussion

- A Few Showers and Thunderstorms Today

Overnight thunderstorm activity has stayed mostly north of our
forecast region, but storm motion may bring a few cells into west
central Lower Michigan into the morning hours. Given a substantial
dew point gradient across the Lower Peninsula (richer low level
moisture across western portions of the state) and 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE present, a few storms may persist but inland extent will be
limited and coverage will be small since the storms are fighting
drier air above 700 mb and upper level ridging. The most likely
region for this will be north of a Pentwater to Big Rapids line
though perhaps locations as far south as a Muskegon to Newaygo line
could receive a shower or storm. Given the slow movement of cells
there could be very localized heavy downpours with a quick half inch
to inch or more possible.

For the remainder of today, a widely scattered shower or storm could
develop along a weakly convergent lake breeze (if it develops, which
is not a guarantee), though CAM solutions are varied with this
scenario occurring or not. The few locations that may get rain today
could get locally heavy downpours. Most locations should stay dry.

- Dry Thursday and Friday, With Rain Chances Returning over Weekend

After warm and dry days Thursday and Friday, a deepening upper low
near the northern Great Plains as well as a retrograding upper low
across the Mid Atlantic region will squash the 590s dm ridge later
this week into the weekend. Model guidance is indicating some weak
upper level divergence moving in after 18z Saturday as a 100 kt ULJ
approaches Hudson Bay. Both the ECMWF and GFS show a mid level
vorticity lobe moving through Lower Michigan around this time. Some
EC ensemble members are supporting SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg. There is a
fair amount of spread with ensemble PWAT values. Nevertheless,
showers and some thunderstorms will likely be moving through during
Saturday, especially from midday onward. Rain chances could linger
into Sunday depending on the "pinwheeling" of vort lobes around the
upper low that could serve as sources of mid level lift, though
soundings look fairly dry above 850 mb.

 


Weather History for SW Michigan

May 8

1976: A freeze hits Lower Michigan with Grand Rapids and Muskegon setting record lows of 27 degrees.

1880: A tornado destroyed two homes and a barn two miles east of Kalamazoo. No one was injured.

May 9

1923: A very late-season winter storm dropped up to a foot of snow across Lower Michigan. Records were set for May snowfall at many places including Lansing with 11.5 inches, Grand Rapids with 5.5 inches, and Detroit with 6 inches.

1927: About 40 farm buildings are damaged or destroyed as a tornado moved from near Loomis in Isabella County, across southeast Clare County, and into Gladwin County. Another tornado destroyed two barns and damaged two homes three miles west of Walker.

May 10

1902: A snowstorm drops from 1 to 6 inches of slushy snow across Lower Michigan. The four inches of snow at Muskegon is the latest measurable snow on record there

2006: A small weak tornado, determined to be a “landspout” moved through an open field near Schoolcraft in Kalamazoo County, doing no damage.

May 11

1956: A tornado hit the northeast edge of Kalamazoo, damaging 15 homes and destroying several barns.

May 12

1956: A severe weather outbreak produces tornadoes, high winds, and large hail across Lower Michigan. A deadly tornado hit near Flint for the second time in three years, killing three people on the southeast side of the city. One person was killed in Gratiot County as a tornado moved between Alma and Ithaca. Muskegon was pelted with baseball-sized hail that caused thousands of dollars in damage to homes and cars.

2000: Severe weather with flash flooding, tornadoes, and downburst winds hit Lower Michigan. A weak tornado moved through an open field near Gobles in Allegan County.

May 13

1930: Severe thunderstorms produced tornado and downburst damage across eastern Clinton County. Over 30 farms had wind damage and two dozen barns were destroyed. A tornado struck four miles south of St. Johns.

1980: Kalamazoo was hit by a tornado that killed five people and injured 79 others. Fifty million dollars in damage was done as the tornado damaged or destroyed nearly 300 homes and over 150 businesses.

May 14

1886: A tornado injured one person and damaged several homes north of Lansing. The injury occurred as a conductor was blown from a train.

2004: A tornado struck the southeast side of Maple Rapids, destroying a silo and damaging two others. A shed was also damaged. A couple of two-by-fours were driven into the side of a pole barn. Shingles were damaged and ripped off of two homes.


Weather History for SE Michigan

May 8

On May 8, 1964, an F4 tornado moved through Chesterfield Township in southern Macomb County, touching down at 4:59 pm. This tornado touched down north of Mt. Clemens and moved across Chesterfield Township near the Lake St. Clair shoreline before entering Lake St. Clair southwest of New Baltimore. This was the strongest tornado to ever hit Macomb County and was responsible for 13 fatalities.

May 9

On May 9, 1923, a late-season snowstorm pounded Southeast Michigan. Six inches of snow was recorded in Detroit, with areas around Flint and Saginaw receiving around a foot! Widespread damage was also reported with trees and power lines snapping under the heavy wet snow.

Also on May 9, 2000, Plymouth received 1.75-inch hail at 7:05 pm and then had winds at 69 mph at 7:33 pm, which resulted in $135,000 in property damage.

May 10

On May 10, 2003, 1-inch hail was reported in Wyandotte at 12:10 am. 3/4-inch hail was also reported in Redford and Wyandotte on this day.

May 11

On May 11, 1974, an F3 tornado moved through Livingston County at 5:31 PM, near the community of Hell. This tornado only traveled less than a mile but was responsible for one fatality, 3 destroyed houses, and 15 damaged houses.

May 12

On May 12, 1956, an F4 tornado hit Genesee County killing 3 people and injuring 116. This tornado occurred just three years after the devastating Flint/Beecher tornado of June 8, 1953, and is the last killer tornado to hit Genesee County. On the same date, an F4 tornado hit southern Wayne county and was responsible for 22 injuries.

May 13

May 13, 2018, marked the end of a period of wet conditions across the area with the axis of heaviest rain stretching across the I-696 corridor. Locations saw anywhere between 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall between May 11 and 13 and several roads were closed in Oakland and Wayne Counties due to localized flooding.

On May 13, 1912, Detroit reported a record for the latest snow accumulating an inch or more. The snow was measured at 1.5 inches.

May 14

On May 14, 1987, Oakland County was hit by an F1 tornado at 5:10 PM.


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Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I see pictures of accumulated hail on M66 near Remus as well as a mini landslide occurred with trees down.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I had 92 according to the reading on my van where I was in Allegan County today. I see some big storms occurred up north. Flood Alerts up there.

INDY
INDY

Mid 60’s and lows in the 40’s next week will be perfect fire weather I will love that ….INDY

Slim

It looks to have reached 87 for a very short time between readings at GRR. At the current time it is cloudy here with a temperature of 80 and a DP of 68 that DP is down from the 71 it was at. That high of 87 will be the new 2nd warmest for any May 11th The record high of 89 will stand for this date. If it can stay at 66 or better until midnight Grand Rapids would set a new record warmest minimum for the date. Looking ahead the record high for tomorrow is 86.
Slim

INDY
INDY

Like I have said before May is the start of real warmth in west Michigan and we are feeling it thats for sure mid 60’s will remind me of Spring next week not Summer cold fronts seem to have lots of cooler air with them this year sofar very interesting…InDY

Mookie
Mookie

Wow, high of 87 at GR so far today with a heat index of 91 degrees! Blowtorch for early May!

INDY
INDY

Thunderstorms north of GR are moving every which way but lose crazzy.. Mid 60’s next week fantastic….INDY

Slim

It now looks like they will miss us for the most part.
Slim

Slim

Keeping a eye on the storms to the north. I first I thought they would slide to the east but that has not been the case. And now are sliding to to the south southwest. At this time it is cloudy here warm and humid with a temperature of 83 and a dew point of 69.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Those storms are quite a ways off, but the sky is black to the north.

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Wow they are getting a TON of rain towards Big Rapids and just to the NW. And 2 active warnings currently

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

“We have had localized flooding in Isabella County with some washout roads and rainfall reports over 4 1/2 inches in one hour.”

Slim

Wow
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)
Slim

On the flip side of all of the warm temperatures. There is still some snow on the ground up in the UP this is from the ski hill just north of Houghton
https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ski-hill/
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Some pretty decent storms up by Clare atm… looks like up to an inch size hail

Slim

Those storms if the can hold together will slide into the Bay City and Saginaw area. It has now became cloudy here with a current temperature of a humid 82 with a dew point here of 71.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Traverse City and Pellston broke record high temperatures for yesterday. Gaylord tied its record high of 87 degrees.

Traverse City’s record marks the earliest ever that they have hit 92 degrees. Wow!

Mookie
Mookie

Welcome to at least 5 months of glorious summer weather! We made it!

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Leaves and flowers are in full bloom here. It feels like a warm summer day. Looks like the forecasted “cool down” next week is just a return to mid 60s to 70s and sunshine… we are at the point of the year where I start to prefer cooler weather than warmer weather until we reach October.

Slim

I have to say from May to early October most of Michigan has great weather. Compared to much of the US the state has moderate summer temperatures and many come here in July and August to “cool off” Sort of like many from here go down south in the winter to “get out of the snow and cold”
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Yes October is actually one of our warmer months, it just feels cool because we are coming off the summer. Most of October is 60+ until the end

Slim

Yesterday official H/L at Grand Rapids of 84/61 was both the 5th warmest maximum and the 5 warmest minimum. The overnight low here at my house was 67 the official low at GRR looks to be 66. If it can stay at or above that 66 until midnight it would tie the record for the warmest minimum for May 11th. The record high for today at Grand Rapids is 89 set in 1922 and 1896. At Lansing the record high is 88 set in 1896 then 87 set in 1922. At Muskegon the record is 87 set in 1930. For… Read more »

Mookie
Mookie

After today, GR should be above average for temps for May with lots more warmth coming.

Slim

Yesterdays CPC 6/10 and 8/14 would disagree with a lot more warmth coming. But then the long range guess from CFSv2 would trend warmer. We shall see how that plays out.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

After today, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday all look to be unseasonably warm days.

Slim

Yep, there looks to be several days of nice summer like weather then back to cooler more typical late spring weather.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Wow Traverse City hit 92 degrees yesterday – smashing their old record high by several degrees!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Perhaps what is even more fascinating is the 31 degree temperature drop in 10 minutes that they experienced later in the day. From 88 at 6:35 to 57 at 6:45.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Wind shifted to onshore?

Slim

That looks to be a wind shift. They Traverse City gets down slopping and thus can get very hot at times. Also some areas just a short ways from the airport may not have gotten all that warm.
Slim