Don’t let the post title get you too excited, scattered means occurring or found at intervals or various locations rather than all together. There is a 30% chance which means the chance is 30% within 25 miles of any one location.
Weather forecasters use the term PoP, or Probability of Precipitation when describing the percent chance of rain. PoP is defined as the chance of measurable precipitation occurring at any point in a selected area. This definition means that at any given point in the forecast area, there is a PoP percent chance of measurable precipitation during the time period of the forecast.
The probability of precipitation is calculated from the product of two variables. The first variable is “confidence”. How confident is the forecaster precipitation will occur somewhere in their forecast area? This value ranges between 0 (no precipitation possible) to 1 (definitely going to rain) and comes down to the forecaster’s best guess from other data and models.
The second variable is “area affected” or A. This is the percent of the forecast area will receive the precipitation if there is any precipitation. This variable comes down to the forecaster’s best guess again based on models and other data.
Today our best guess with a stationary front in place would be along and west of US131 and south of Grand Rapids. As you can see there is a lot of guessing going on…
Other than that the heat will continue through the week with temps increasing day by day. Below is the SPC outlook for today: