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Rain Ending Today

Yesterday we had 1.35 inches of rain by 7:00 pm, bringing our monthly total to 2.26 inches and 8.25 inches since June 1st (in Otsego).

Rain showers will remain over much of the area this morning. Some locally heavy downpours will remain possible. Rain will move out this afternoon, and partial clearing will occur late this afternoon. Highs will range from 69-74. Wednesday will be dry before showers and storms return for Thursday.

A flood watch continues for most of central Michigan until noon:

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Michigan, southwest Michigan, and
  west central Michigan, including the following areas, in south
  central Michigan, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia, and
  Jackson. In southwest Michigan, Allegan, Barry, Kalamazoo,
  Kent, Ottawa, and Van Buren. In west central Michigan,
  Muskegon.

* Through Tuesday morning

* WHEN...through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone
  locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban
  areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with
  debris. Area creeks and streams are running high and could
  flood with more heavy rain.

Grand Rapids Forecast

8 15 grr

U.S.A and Global Events for August 15th

1787: Tornadoes were reported in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. Wethersfield, Connecticut was hard hit by the tornado outbreak. There, a woman and her family were caught in the open. She and her son were killed. Clothes from the family farm were carried three miles away. This event is regarded to be the most significant tornado outbreak in early New England history.

1983: Hurricane Alicia formed on this day and was the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. It struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $2.6 billion (1983 USD) in damage and killing 21 people. This storm was the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961. Also, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history.


Forecast Discussion

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)

...Rain ending...

Radar echos continue to decrease in intensity as light to moderate
rain pivots northward to areas north of I-96.

Latest sfc analysis shows low pressure near Sturgis as it very
slowly moves east. CAMs show the rain diminishing by noon and HREF
mean cloud cover showing decreasing cloudiness shortly thereafter.
Thus, we`ll see some sunshine during the afternoon.

High pressure will nose in from the southwest tonight leading to
clear skies. Given the rain, it`s possible that we`ll get some
patchy fog. Indeed, CONSShort guidance shows vsbys falling to less
than a mile at JXN and around 3 miles at LAN, so we`ll keep an eye
on that.

Highs in the 70s and abundant sunshine will create comfortable
conditions Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)

The main items of interest in the long term portion of the forecast
will be storm chances and potential strength focused on Thursday,
and then likely building heat late next week and through the next
weekend.

The impetus for the storm chances on Thursday continues to be a
strong upper short wave that will be diving southeast through the
area. The rain chances will increase through the area on Thursday
morning as the associated 50 knot low level jet noses through the
area. There will be some weak elevated instability with the low
level jet that will allow for some embedded thunder in this. This
band should not be severe.

The initial band of showers and embedded storms will past east of
the area by early afternoon, with some additional storms possible
mid afternoon on Thursday. This will be out ahead of the short wave
trough axis pushing through. The cooler air aloft moving in,
residual moisture, and a little heating, will produce some sfc based
instability. The trough interacting with this potential instability
and potentially sufficient deep layer shear values around 30+ knots,
will support the additional storm potential. The uncertainty lies
within the amount of instability that can develop behind the initial
rain Thursday morning.

Once the trough and rain moves out likely by Thursday evening, we
are looking at an increasingly warmer and dry period through next
weekend. The strong trough moving out, and another strong trough
digging across the NW Pacific will help to amplify the upper ridge
in between, and build heights over the region.

Right now, 500 mb heights are forecast to build to around 596-598
dam by Sunday. This, combined with 850 mb temps forecast to warm to
around 22C will support max temps making a run toward 90F. In
addition, the typical height contours where the ring of fire
typically follows, should be up in Canada. Forecast soundings
corroborate that thought with a cap evident in the low to mid levels
that should suppress any convection. This holds really until next
mid-week next week when the Pacific NW wave makes an attempt to
move in the region.
newest oldest
Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Ada – gauges only showed .85 of rainfall overnight. We’ll take it though.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a week! One below normal temp day after another! Wow, just wow, WOW! Rock n roll will never die!!!!!!!!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

There’s a nearby reporting station that posted 3.34” of rainfall. That’s sounds about right for here. Lots of standing water.

INDY
INDY

Can we say Fall we are officially midway through August I love short cool Summers and a quiet hot 3 maybe 2 now ha ha! The rain was tremendous over 3 inches out in my hood hollly wet have a beautiful Tuesday….. INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Great, cool summer and probably a few on here will say we are in heat wave next week when temps reach the mid 80’s! What a joke!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Waking up to 2.6” of rain in my rain gauge

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Good job by the GR NWS! Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain! Wow!!!

Jesse (Montcalm co)
Jesse (Montcalm co)

I bet we were on the lower end with 1”. Lots of water dropped across the state.

bernie
bernie

I had 3.4″ in the past 18 hours! No watering for a while… Sounds like a nice p.m. and Weds shaping up, with the heat back for next week.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Where??

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

We should be back to actual summer weather starting this weekend. Maybe not a heat wave, but likely in the 80s. We get to enjoy more comfortable temps in the meantime!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I have not watered since June!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

What a slow moving low. I was awoke by heavy rain hitting the roof twice overnight. I will be curious to see final rainfall amount reports. Looks like most of the area received 1-2″. I believe there will be some areas with more than 3″.

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I heard we broke a record here with 5″. Not sure if it’s true.

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/62. There was 9% of possible sunshine, the highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the NE. later in the day the rain moved in and there was 1.22” of rain (here in MBY I recorded 1.38” of total rain fall so far) At Holland a new rain fall record was set with 2.69” of rain the old record was just 0.75” set in 1909. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 97 was set in 1944 and the record low of 42 was set in 1964.… Read more »

Slim

The week ahead will start off on the cool side with a chance of showers today and again Thursday. Highs will be in the 70’s thu Friday before warming up into the 80’s over the weekend. Lows will be in the 50’s before warming up into the 60’s There still has only been one day when the temperature has not dropped below 70 this summer season.
Slim