Rain chances will increase beginning today with the best chances of soaking rain tomorrow. A cold front moving south across the state will be the focus for scattered showers and storms. We’ll see some sunshine too. Temperatures will climb into the 80s.
Below is the precipitation (QPF) forecast for the U.S. – we should see up to an inch of rain of much-needed rain for southern Michigan through Friday.
SPC Forecast:
U.S.A and Global Events for July 11th:
1936: From July 5-17, temperatures exceeding 111 degrees in Manitoba and Ontario claimed 1,180 lives (mostly the elderly and infants) during the most prolonged, deadliest heat wave on record. Four hundred of these deaths were caused by people who drowned seeking refuge from the heat. In fact, the heat was so intense that steel rail lines and bridge girders twisted, sidewalks buckled, crops wilted and fruit baked on trees. Some record temperatures include; 112 degrees at St. Albans and Emerson, Manitoba, 111 at Brandon, Manitoba, 108 at Atikokan, Ontario, and Winnipeg, Manitoba.
1990: The costliest hailstorm in U.S. history occurred along the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. (Denver, Colorado): Softball-sized hail destroyed roofs and cars, causing more than $600 million in total damage.
Grand Rapids Forecast
7 11 grrForecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 434 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Thunderstorms are currently moving across Lake Michigan along an axis of elevated instability, low level convergence, higher surface dew points ahead of the cold front, and along a low level jet pointing at central Lower Michigan. These storms are progged to weaken as they move east into a more stable environment with a weakening low level jet. The front will sag into Lower Michigan and daytime heating will result in an increase in surface based instability with storms forecast to fire up again across central and southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. The severe threat will include hail and downburst/microburst wind damage as a dry adiabatic subcloud layer seen in model soundings will enhance downdraft potential. The front hangs up across the southern Michigan border overnight and is the focus for more storms late tonight through Wednesday as a wave moves along the front with deep moisture return. P-wats spike to over 1.5 inches and overrunning pattern will bring large area of moderate rains with enough instability for embedded thunderstorms with higher rainfall rates and potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain across much of the southern half of the forecast area. Streams and rivers could see significant rises by late Wednesday but levels are low to begin with, which would mitigate any potential issues with river flooding. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 The models are latching onto the idea of MCS activity moving across the cwa Wednesday night along the quasi-stationary frontal boundary near the MI/IN border. We`ll be on the tail-end of the system as the long term period begins, but still could see an additional quarter inch of rain through Thursday morning. We should see some sunshine develop by Thursday afternoon as the low moves away. The dry weather will likely be short lived though. The persistent Hudson Bay upper low will continue to send a cavalcade of short waves from the Northern Plains across the Great Lakes every couple of days through next Monday/Tuesday. Rain chances will increase again Friday afternoon through Saturday and again Monday. Good lift will be generated by the left exit region of the upper jet. Precipitable water increases substantially ahead of the Friday short wave to around 1.8 inches. Same thing late Sunday. Thus any storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rain. We`ll have to keep an eye out for stronger storms Friday/Saturday as bulk shear climbs to 35-40 knots indicating some potential for organization. Highs during the period will be within a couple of degrees of 80.
Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook places all of our viewing area and an all of Southern Lower Michigan in the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. It looks as though some may get quite a soaking.
Hopefully!! Nothing today.
87 and humid here. It is breezy, but it’s a very warm breeze. All the storms popped just to our east and southeast. Hoping we get some soaking rain tomorrow. Local TV met said some areas could get two or more inches in the next day or two.
Lots of rain coming for all of west Michigan the drought is going by by my grass is back fully green and growing like weeds time for a trim enjoy the rainy Wednesday tomorrow… keep the below average July days a going we will take it …INDYYY
LATEST UPDATE… Short Term/Long Term .SHORT TERM…(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 – Risk for a few storms this evening The cold front was slipping south southeast through the CWA at this time. SPC Meso page shows surface based CAPE values up to over 2000 J/kg near and south of I-96. Deep layer shear showed values over 35 knots, but that axis of higher values is located north of the stronger instability. DCAPE was near 1000 J/kg. Surface convergence was maximized near and east of Lansing, but some still existed further west.… Read more »
Cool Radarscope image from Chicago (KLOT) showing lakebreeze and storms forming:
Do you think these will hold together and make it here…in a few hours???
these are moving to the south east
Ah ok.. shoot
…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN TUSCOLA AND NORTH CENTRAL LAPEER COUNTIES… At 306 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Mayville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near… North Branch and Clifford around 315 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Silverwood, Fostoria… Read more »
Well, that was unexpected.
Areas from Muskegon over to St. John’s in the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow.
Breaking>>yesterday was yet another below normal temp day! The near to below normal temp pattern just keeps going and going! Incredible!
My bro lives near Phoenix. He said it’s the hottest he’s seen since moving there. The highs for the next week are forecasted 111-118 and the lows are not supposed to drop below 90. He also said this is supposed to be monsoon season there, but it hasn’t rained since before Mother’s Day.
Meanwhile, I am happy that we’re having sunshine and temps only in the mid 80s.
Yes… no thank you that is TOO HOT!!!
It’s the same at my sisters house. The last time it rained there was when I came to visit back in May. You’re right this is there monsoon season there and so far no rain in sight.
The official H/L yesterday was 85/57 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 100% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 28 MPH out of the SW. Here in MBY the overnight low for today was 68 there was 0.03” of rain fall with a shower this AM. At the current time it is 69 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 99 was set in 1936 and the record low of 45 was set in 1945. The record rain fall of 2.72” fell in 1923. Last year the… Read more »
There were some heavy thunderstorms yesterday across parts of the UP. There was a brief shower here this morning but it only dropped 0.03” of rain here. The week ahead looks to be just a little on both side of average with tomorrow being a cool day for mid July. The rest of the week should see highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s Lows should be mostly in the low to mid 60’s there will be several chances of rain.
Slim
Today is the anniversary of the July 11, 2011 derecho. This caused significant damage, injuries, and I believe we had one fatality in Kent County due to a falling tree. I lived in Southern Kent County in Byron Center at the time I know at my house it was very damaging there were trees down all over the place
Thanks for the information.
Slim