The snow is gone here in Otsego with the exception of Bittersweet Ski Resort just down the road from me. They are reporting a six-inch base and two runs open. This will be short-lived with the high winds and rain predicted. We have 31° at 6 am. Temps rose above freezing yesterday to 39° with an overnight low of 26°.
Rain will move in this afternoon with temps rising to the 50s late tonight, we may even have a thunderstorm after midnight. The high wind watch will go into effect at 7 am tomorrow lasting to 7 pm.
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
Forecast Discussion
-Rain tonight, locally heavy with scattered tstms tonight Strong warm/moist advection ahead of approaching/deepening sfc low tonight brings widespread rainfall and a few tstms to the area, aided by a 60-70 kt low level jet and unseasonably high/near record PWATs around 1.25 inches. Total rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 are likely for most locations, but guidance is showing narrow streaks/swaths of 1-2" rainfall. Localized probability matched mean QPF from the SPC HREF, as well as EC ensemble mean guidance, suggests one of these heavier rain swaths will lay out across the Muskegon river basin tonight, with another one clipping se Lwr MI including the JXN area. While the likelihood of one or more of these heavier rain corridors impacting the area looks high, placement and areal extent is less certain. Some minor areal flooding of poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out tonight where rainfall exceeds an inch in short duration, but the mainstem rivers should be able to handle the higher amounts given current low levels. Still cant rule out an hour or two of snow and freezing rain along the U.S. 10 corridor with the onset of the precipitation this evening, but travel impacts should be limited given very short duration of the threat and rapid transition to all rain. -Very Windy Saturday with snow showers No change to the existing High Wind Watch. Surge of strongest wind gusts related to rapidly deepening sfc low over nrn Lwr MI arrives from the southwest around 12Z Saturday with arrival of dry slot and sfc cold front. Highest gusts are expected to occur in the morning south of a MKG to MOP line with that initial strong surge of cold advection and momentum transfer, with most guidance pointing at max gusts of 50 to 55 mph. However some values near 60 mph/warning criteria cannot be ruled out since fcst soundings in srn lwr MI show 50-55 kts at the top of the mixed layer. Wind gusts in the afternoon in the tight pres gradient expected to be around 45 mph areawide before rapidly subsiding Saturday evening. The strong nw flow cold advection pattern on Saturday, combined with a period of deep moisture as synoptic deformation zone of system briefly wraps in, supports a few hours of potentially locally heavy snow showers. Could see some local 1" accums, which combined with the strong winds could create some travel impacts. -Quiet wx with a warming trend starting Sunday Much quieter pattern moves in behind quickly departing system, with strong support for sunshine on both Sunday and Monday. Breezy conditions look to continue Sunday, but sfc ridge brings lighter winds for Monday and highs well into the 40s. The big push of warm air comes in for mid week period, but how warm it gets is still uncertain since extent of clouds/precip in warm advection pattern is unclear at this time. Highs in the 50s look likely on Wed/Thur, with some possibility of eclipsing 60.
Great news!!! The teleconnectors are now trending towards cold and snow in about 1.5 weeks! Bring it!
The skiing up North should be incredible! I love it!
Wow!! One comment today!! Must mean tremendous warmth is on the way and zero snow!! Keep the warm December ROCKIN!!
Everyone is out Christmas shopping.
There is still a trace of snow on the ground here at my house. The overnight low here was 28 and with cloudy skies it is now 34. Next week still looks to be very warm by December standards. The average maximum temperature for December at Grand Rapids is 54. In the last 30 years it has reached 60 or better 8 times in December. In that 30 year span it has not reached at least 50 only 5 times. The range in the last 30 years has been from 37 in 2000 to 69 in 2001.
Slim