Warming Trend

We have enjoyed some snow cover on the ground for a couple of days that is however to abruptly change as the weather will begin to trend to above normal as we progress through the next few days.  Guesses are that this will remain true through the end of the month even though some models suggest a polar visit the week of Christmas I am not so sure this will happen.

We have had 9.6 inches of snow in Otsego thus far well ahead of last year’s 0 inches, we need only 30 inches to break last year’s total.

Yesterday we had a high of 30° and a low of 20° with another half-inch of light fluffy snow.

Frozen precipitation today will be mainly north of I96 where there are winter advisories for the northern tier of counties.  Our temps will creep above freezing (upper 30s) today with chances of rain and snow showers later this afternoon. Tomorrow will feature temps pushing to near 50° with more rain in the forecast.

Forecast Discussion

-Light snow this afternoon, mainly north of I-96; breezy

Progressive pattern aloft sends another shortwave our way from the
Central Plains today. Strong warm advection ahead of this wave
pushes gulf moisture northward via a 60 kt H8 southerly low level
jet, with isentropic lift causing areas of light precip to develop
by afternoon. Southeast winds may gust near 30 mph at times today.

The air mass is quite dry to start the day which should result in
mostly virga through the morning. Highest pops will be north of I-96
this afternoon where moisture and lift is present longest ahead of
the approaching wave, allowing the column to more fully saturate as
compared to the south.

Evaporative cooling expected to result in light snow as the primary
precip type today but if/where any precip falls near and south of I-
96, rain or mixed rain/snow is also possible due to slightly milder
sfc temps. Up to 1.5" of snow is possible near and north of Hwy U.S.
10 with lesser amounts farther south.

A brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out this
evening before the precip ends/lifts north since the DGZ becomes
unsaturated once mid level moisture departs.

-Rain Friday night; Very windy with snow showers Saturday

The next shortwave, coming into CA this morning, spins up a mature
cyclone over the central U.S. on Friday which deepens while moving
toward nrn Lk Huron Saturday. Gulf moisture and warmth streaming
north ahead of the low brings unseasonably high PWATs over 1 inch
into the area with H8 temps rising to 10C.

Widespread rain amounts of 0.50 to 0.75" are likely Friday night,
with the possibility of a few tstms and localized amounts over
1.00". There is a risk for a brief period of freezing rain at the
onset of the precip Friday evening, mainly near/north of the U.S. 10
corridor.

Strong winds are likely on Saturday as passing sfc low deepens below
980 mb while lifting northeast toward Quebec. Could see some gusts
in excess of 50 mph causing scattered power outages. This will be
accompanied by snow showers as much colder air pours in on the back
side of the system, but only light accumulations expected.

-Well above normal temps next week

Confidence is high for a stretch of well above normal temperatures
next week as a large upper ridge builds in advance of a deepening
west coast longwave trough. Warmest air expected to be during the
mid week period when potential exists for highs to reach near 60.