Sunset times are now before 9 p.m. as we gradually lose daylight in August. By the end of the month, sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset at 8:19 p.m. (in Grand Rapids).
We have another pleasant day in store for SW Michigan with sunny skies and slightly less humidity than yesterday. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 20 mph creating hazardous beach conditions along the Lake Michigan shoreline beginning at 2 pm today.
Saturday we will see an increase in clouds as our next storm system moves in from the west for Sunday. The SPC has us with a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday late afternoon.
A seasonably upper-level solid trough will continue to amplify as
it moves east across the region Sunday and Sunday night. In
response, a surface low will deepen as it moves east/northeast from
eastern IA into lower MI, and a cold front will move east across the
region. A warm front will extend east from the low across southern
lower MI.
Thunderstorm development/re-intensification is expected during the
day ahead of the cold front as large-scale ascent overspreads the
region. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, heating of a moist
boundary layer (dew points mid-60s-lower 70s) will result in
moderate/strong instability by afternoon. Effective shear will
support both supercell and multicell structures initially with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts. A predominately linear
convective structure is likely with time as a response to frontal
forcing, with a continued/expanding risk for damaging gusts during
the evening. Some tornado potential may exist, primarily over
northern portions of the risk area closer to the deepening surface
low and in the vicinity of the warm front.
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 4 grrU.S.A and Global Events for August 4th
2008: Severe storms moved across northern Illinois and Indiana with tornadoes and stiff winds reported. With tornado sirens blaring, the game at Wrigley Field between Cubs and Astros was stopped as fans were told to evacuate to the lower concourse. Passengers at O’Hare International Airport were evacuated to lower levels of buildings as well. An estimated 350 flights were canceled.
2009: The strongest tornado to hit Quebec since the same date in 1994 ripped through Mont-Laurier. The F2 tornado tore through the small western Quebec town severely damaging about 40 homes. Two men were taken to the hospital with minor injuries.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Quiet weather through Saturday with near zero chance of any rain as drying and subsidence follows in the wake of a cold front passage. Temperatures will be near normal and only a few high clouds expected later Saturday as a low gathers across the Plains States that will be a significant player in the extended period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 - Heavy Rain and Severe Weather Possible Sunday into Monday - Overall expectations haven`t changed in terms of a widespread soaking rain (locally much heavier) and a risk of severe weather whose details remain rather nebulous. As noted previously, we are dealing with a surface low with a pressure minimum not normally seen this time of year. In the 03/12Z ECMWF ensemble solutions, there are two clusters of surface low positions by Monday afternoon - one is centered over southeast Lower MI and the other is in the northern Lake Michigan/Lake Huron region. Based on the 03/12Z GFDL C-SHiELD extended CAM run, we see evidence for a trowal/FGEN associated rainband developing from the Lansing area towards the thumb Sunday night. Simulated IR/WV satellite imagery from the 03/12Z ECMWF deterministic also depicts strongly deformed flow aloft consistent with a developing trowal. Calling shots this precisely for a day 3-4 forecast is of course foolhardy. Nonetheless, we do see a legitimate signal that a focused and probably SW-NE oriented FGEN precipitation band Sunday night is highly plausible for somewhere in the general area. As already noted, we will be awash in very high PWATs during this time; combining this with strong, focused mesoscale forcing is a recipe for significant locally heavy rainfall. Again, not much to add to what was previously said regarding the severe threat and what was discussed in the SPC Day 4-8 convective outlook. Note that the Day 3 outlook encompassing the period of our concern will be out later this morning and this will play heavily into our messaging later today.
It is winter in the southern hemisphere – areas in South America are also seeing extreme heat waves – https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/americas/south-america-winter-heatwave-climate-intl/index.html
100 degrees during winter? Yeah, that doesn’t seem normal.
Honestly 100 degrees in the summer probably isn’t normal either
To put it in a little perspective Santiago, Chile is at 33° 27 south above the same distance from the equator as Atlanta and Vicuña is about the same distance from the equator as Jacksonville FL Around 30° The August record for Santiago is 29.9C or 85.8F at Atlanta the February record high is 81. For Jacksonville the February record high is 89. At Huston the record high in February is 91. Meanwhile here in Grand Rapids the record for February is 69.
Slim
Anyone local… Brookside Blueberry on M222 is having u pick today and tomorrow for $1.50 a pound. Great blueberries and yummy bakery items. Just let you know and enjoy Michigan’s wonderful weather and fruit!! Oh they have raspberries, but I don’t know that price. Lol
The official H/L yesterday was 85/63. Officially there was no rain fall, here in MBY I recorded 0.01” of rain. There was 79% of possible sunshine the highest wind gust was 26MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 96 was set in 1988 the record low was a chilly 42 in 1894 in Lansing it was a colder 37 on that date. The record rain fall amounted is 2.12” in 1905. Last year the H/L was 86/70 with a trace of rain fall.
Slim
Today and tomorrow at this time look to be chamber of commerce type days with lots of sun and highs in the low 80’s and lows in the low to mid 60’s. Come Sunday that looks to change as we have a chance of some rain that could be heavy. Next week looks to be a little cooler than average with several chances of showers.
Slim