It is hard to believe we are already closing in on the halfway point of fall. After a drier-than-normal September, we are more than making up for it in October. Yesterday’s total rainfall in Otsego was .90 of an inch bringing us to 5.09 inches for the month. Our Fall total thus far is 8.07 inches.
We will see brisk northerly winds today which will gust to 25 mph under cloudy skies. Scattered, light showers may move through during the late afternoon and evening hours. A dry, milder stretch can be expected Monday through Wednesday although frost may be likely on Monday night.
This is our last 7 p.m. sunset for the season. Also, this is the last day the NWS will issue frost and freeze warnings for the state as this is the time of year we would have normal expectations of such an event.
The periods of rainfall the area has seen over the last three days have added up to almost 2 inches in some locations. Take a look at the map and reports for the Wed-Sat time frame:
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 15th:
1608: Evangelista Torricelli, the Italian physicist and mathematician who invented the barometer, was born on this day. In 1644, Evangelista Torricelli built the first barometer with mercury.
The portrait above is Evangelista Torricelli by Lorenzo Lippi, circa 1647.
1954: By 11 p.m. on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding.
Food waters surrounding a Toronto-area church. The image is courtesy of the Metropolitan Toronto Police Museum.
1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its recorded history. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Louisville, Kentucky.
1987: Beginning on the night of October 15th, an unusually strong weather system caused extremely high winds in the United Kingdom. This storm became known as the Great Storm of 1987. It was the worst storm to hit the UK since the Great Storm in 1703. Click HERE for more information from the BBC.
Forecast Discussion
- Cloudy With Light Rain or Drizzle Possible Later Today Upper troughing continues today with N/NE upper flow over the Great Lakes and similar low level flow helping generate lake effect rain showers mainly over the open waters of Lake Michigan. As PVA occurs with the trough axis moving through from 18z-00z and saturation develops in the 925mb-600mb layer along with omegas throughout that layer, some light rain or drizzle may develop just about anywhere during the afternoon into late evening hours. This will be in addition to some bands of lake effect showers migrating into the lakeshore region as surface flow backs N/NW. The greatest coverage of synoptic light rain/drizzle as well as lake effect showers should be in the 18z-03z time frame. Amounts will be light overall, from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or so. Cloud coverage is expected to be high throughout the day, and whatever small breaks may occur early in the morning will fill in. - Decreasing Clouds West of US 127 Monday The trend on Monday will be for decreasing cloud cover for most, but not all, of the region. Model RH layers show some progressive drying throughout the column from NW to SE during the day, but for areas near and east of US 127, low level N/NE flow over Lake Huron and into the thumb region should keep cloud cover quite persistent. A sprinkle or light shower could occur in that region as well. If the NAM is correct with the 925-850mb RH, partial clearing near and south of I-96 may not occur until the evening hours. So, the most likely region for some sun will be north of I-96 and west of US 127 during the day, with the southern extent of clearing a bit in question at this point but most areas should turn partly cloudy by late in the day. -Frost/Freeze Possible Monday Night As a surface ridge settles into the region on Monday night the combination of light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies will promote strong radiational cooling. Chilly overnight lows of 30-35 are expected along with a strong frost risk. However please note that we are officially ending the issuance of frost and freeze headlines today (10/15), so do not expect any headlines for this upcoming potential event. -Dry/Milder Tuesday and Wednesday Surface ridge will be overhead on Tuesday then shifting east on Wednesday. Tuesday looks to offer the best potential for some sunshine although developing westerly flow could lead to some lake clouds/sprinkles along the coast. Clouds increase on Wednesday as southerly flow/warm advection pattern strengthens in advance of the next approaching system. This looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs topping 60 before showers arrive either late in the day or on Wednesday night. -Showery/Cool Pattern Again Thursday into Next Weekend Here we go again with another installment of fall-like/unsettled weather as another impressive upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Rgn on Thursday and lingers into next weekend. The best chance of showers (likely) occurs on Thursday and Friday when the upper trough is firmly entrenched overhead, with lower pops still lingering Sat/Sun as additional energy drops through the back side of the longwave trough. There is now somewhat better agreement in the evolution and mean position of the longwave trough over the ern CONUS next weekend. Cold H8 air around -5C is pushed into our area by 12Z Sunday in brisk northerly flow on the back side of a potential strong New England cyclone.
Breaking News….yesterday was yet another below normal temp day! Wow!!
The official H/L yesterday was 54/45, there was 0.55” of rain fall. There were 15 HDD’s and 3% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 36 MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is now down to 61/42 the record high of 85 was set in 1897, 1899 and 1947. The record low of 23 was set in 1944. The record rain fall of 0.90” fell in 1942. There has yet to be any snow fall on the date. Last year the H/L was 52/37 and there was 0.14” of rain fall.
Slim