Late February-Ice Storm Next Week?

As we head into the last full week of February it is a good time to see what has happened in the last week in February in the past. 2016 that February saw very little snow the first 18 days and on the 19th the temperature shot up to 61 and Grand Rapids along with winds that guested up to 70MPH. 5 days later there was a two day snow event that dropped 10.2” of snow. That was not the last snow event of 2016 as 7.4” fell on March 1st and the temperature dropped to 6. 1998 with mostly no snow on the ground the last days of 1998 had highs in the 40’s and 50’s for an early tease of spring. 2015 had a cold 2nd half of February from the 14th to the 28th the warmest low was 14 and there were 7 days with lows of 0 or lower and 6 more with lows of 10 or lower. 1930 was the flip of 2015 with highs mostly in the upper 50 and 60’s the last days with the highest reaching 67. That warm trend was also the case in 2000 with highs once again in the 50’s and 60’s reaching 63 on two days. 1989 was on the cold side with lows reaching -4 on the 23rd and -9 on the 24th It was -7 and -10 at Lansing on those days. It was spring like in 1976 when highs reached the 50’s and 60’s in late February with the highest being 67.
Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 27/19. There was 0.04” of precipitation and 1.1” of snow fall. The sun was out 47% of the possible time. As of 7AM yesterday there was officially 3” of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is 34/20 the record high of 59 was set in 2017 and the record low of -10 was set in 1936. The record snow fall of 7.0” fell in 1926.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
347 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2023

LATEST UPDATE…
DISCUSSION/MARINE

DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2023

..MILD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY MID LEVEL
WAVE AND CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH OF MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY DAYTIME WINDS ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 40S BY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A DRY WEEKEND WILL BE IN
STORE THROUGH MONDAY.

..CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BRINGING A CLIPPER ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MONDAY
NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE
OUR CHANCES FOR SNOW; BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW CONTINUES TO BE NORTH
OF THE I 96 CORRIDOR. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

..SIGNIFICANT STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION AS A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL PARTS TO THIS STORM. THE FIRST SHOULD BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PAINTING A SIGNIFICANT STORM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE SNOW WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLD SURFACE AND IF THE TRACK FOR THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ALOFT. AS STATED BEFORE, A
QUEBEC HIGH THAT FEEDS COLD NEAR SURFACE AIR INTO THE STATE WHERE
IT ENCOUNTERS OVERRUNNING WARMER AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC FREEZING
RAIN SCENARIO. THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY’S IN WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AND THE MIXING ALOFT SO THERE COULD BE A BOUNDARY
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SOUTH OF THE I 94 CORRIDOR THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO DOMINATE.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SWING THROUGH AND DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TO FEBRUARY NORMALS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PASSABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. West southwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Saturday Night
Increasing clouds, with a steady temperature around 34. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Southwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Washington’s Birthday
Partly sunny, with a high near 37.
Monday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy.
Wednesday Night
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy.
Thursday
Rain or freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 28.

Detailed Forecast For Holland
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. West southwest wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. South wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
Sunday Night
Cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Washington’s Birthday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night
A chance of snow showers, mixing with rain after 10pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy.
Wednesday Night
Rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1am, then rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy.
Thursday
Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Breezy.
Thursday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Blustery.
Detailed Forecast For Lansing
Today
Sunny, with a high near 41. West southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Tonight
Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. South southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10am, then a slight chance of rain showers between 10am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Washington’s Birthday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West northwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Wednesday
A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.
Wednesday Night
Freezing rain before 1am, then rain or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Breezy.
Thursday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Breezy.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Blustery.