Yesterday we had a brief period of rain showers which totaled .11 of an inch, giving us .24 of an inch for November and 5.96 inches for the season thus far. Yesterday’s high was 59° and the low was 41°.
Enjoy today because it is downhill from here. Warm temperatures are expected today with many locations possibly reaching 70 degrees. A cold front tracks through Friday. Highs tomorrow will only get into the 50s in the morning then fall throughout the day. Unsettled and much colder weather is forecast for this coming weekend with some lake-effect snow showers.
Forecast Discussion
-- Near Record Warmth Today -- Sandwiched between a large high pressure circulation off the mid- Atlantic coast and a well developed low over Minnesota, our area is poised for a well anticipated warmup today aided by south-southwest advection of air sourced from the southern US. 925 mb temperatures are progged to be about 16 to 18 C today, which has been observed no more than a handful of times on or after this date in the DTX sounding climatology (since 1949). This correlates fairly well to the frequency of surface high temperatures greater than 70 on or after this date at our longer-term threaded climate sites. Simply, this is rare air for mid November. Forecast warm-low and high temperatures today will competing with 2020 for November 10`s daily records, within a few degrees. Overnight we already saw the unintuitive jump in temperatures and wind gusts in far western Ottawa county through the western half of Mason county, in the immediate leeward side of the Lake Michigan shoreline. Muskegon airport`s high temperature of 68 crossing midnight of Nov 9th to 10th (a jump of 7 degrees between 10 PM and midnight) was indeed legitimate despite the GLERL station at the beach/harbor being in the mid to upper 50s. This lake shadow warming effect despite a relatively cool Lake Michigan is more common in the spring during southwesterly warm-air advection regimes amid stable low-level thermal profiles and a low-level jet riding just above the marine layer. The zone of warming can be seen in shortwave IR satellite imagery. Actual surface temperatures in this zone are not handled well by the models but it can be inferred from today`s model soundings that adiabatic mixing of air reached the surface from about 800 feet aloft. Worth an academic study perhaps. Anyway, expect this temperature contrast between the lakeshore communities and areas farther inland to be eliminated with diurnal mixing today. -- Late Week Turn Toward Winter Conditions -- As iterated in previous discussions, after the cold frontal passage late tonight into Friday morning, the drop toward persistent colder- than-normal temperatures through next week is high confidence given low spread in the temperature solutions among global model ensembles. Lake effect rain/snow mix will increase on Saturday and peak while changing to just snow Saturday night. This roughly 12 hour period within the upper level trough axis and on the poleward side of the cyclonicly curved upper jet, featuring the greatest depth of cold air with inversion heights climbing to near the top of the DGZ, will make accumulating snow likely Saturday night in the NW- wind belts of Mason/Lake/Oceana counties and Van Buren/western Kalamazoo/western Allegan counties. Some road impacts from slush or icing, especially to bridges and overpasses first, are possible. Thereafter, there is lower confidence in the timing and amounts of potential snow-making weather systems from mid to late next week.
So much for the blue on the 8 to 14 day map Im seeing purple whats that mean ?? Polor vortex coming in November lol.. asking a friend?? Wow to the wow ….INDY
Record tied at Grand Rapids the latest reading at GRR was 74 and that ties the record for today. At Lansing the latest reading was 75 here at my house I am now up to 77.
Slim
Up to 77 here as well. Wow, was not expecting a run at 80 degrees in mid November!
75 in Otsego
Winter is coming! Bring it!
Well, I must say this is interesting. Here in MBY I now have a temperature of 76 and that would be a new record for the date. The latest reading from GRR is 73 and at Lansing it is 74. I wonder if GRR next reading will come up closer to mine or not. Either way we are closing in on record territory or in my case a record.
Slim
76 here too. Feels very warm.
The record for today at Lansing is 77, which was set just two years ago.
Looks like Grand Rapids is up to 74…
Up to 70.3F here with full sunshine. My weather app says Kentwood is currently 73… approaching records
73 is the last reading from GRR. I have 76 here now.
Slim
Interesting read:
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/11/see-why-our-long-range-winter-forecasts-now-have-a-complication.html
That is interesting.
Perhaps it’s just me but even after all these years, I can’t help but think of Chris Farley whenever I hear El Nino.
Yes, That is interesting. I have noticed for some time that recent La Nina winters have generally been warmer than average. But you know I do not recall there being much if any talk of El Nino and or La Nina conditions before the very warm winter of 1982/83. That warm winter had a mean of 31.4° and there was just 35.9″ of snow fall of that 18.1″ fell in November, March and April. March was the snowiest month with 13.2″.
But bottom line is that no one really knows what the long range weather will be.
Slim
Wow, Lansing, Detroit, and Flint are all around +10 degrees above average for the month.
Shorts now Winter coats for the next 6 months party onnnn INDY
Sounds great!
Last 70-degree day? Yeah, I said that like a month ago.
The moon has been so bright the past couple of nights. You could almost read a book outside.
Yeah I’ve heard/read quite a few times that there would be no more 70’s since about early October. Last one until the next one.
Although this time it seems very likely… unless we hit 70s around Thanksgiving (which would be incredible) or during December (which I don’t think has ever happened before)
Yesterday was yet another very mild early November day with an official H/L of 59/36 there was a trace of rain fall and 19% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 46 and that is the current temperature. The overnight low at GRR was a warmer 52. For today the average H/L is now down to 50/34 the record high of 74 was set in 2020 the record low of 16 was set in 1957. The record snow fall amount of 3.8” was set in 2018. Todays forecasted high in the low 70’s will make a run… Read more »
I found this paragraph from today’s discussion very interesting “OVERNIGHT WE ALREADY SAW THE UNINTUITIVE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS IN FAR WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF MASON COUNTY, IN THE IMMEDIATE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. MUSKEGON AIRPORT’S HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 CROSSING MIDNIGHT OF NOV 9TH TO 10TH (A JUMP OF 7 DEGREES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT) WAS INDEED LEGITIMATE DESPITE THE GLERL STATION AT THE BEACH/HARBOR BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS LAKE SHADOW WARMING EFFECT DESPITE A RELATIVELY COOL LAKE MICHIGAN IS MORE COMMON IN THE SPRING… Read more »
MI rocks!