Yesterday was perfection in the weather department one of those strange and wonderful October days with lots of sunshine and warm temps. We reached 73° after a low of 41°. We have another shot at 70 today, enjoy it as I am thinking these days will become less likely the rest of the year.
We will have increased chances of rain today, there are some moving onshore near Muskegon as I write this. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Much cooler weather is expected for the end of the week, with low temperatures dropping into the 30s several nights and highs in the mid-50s.
Weather History for SW Michigan
October 17
1952: After a frosty morning with lows in the 20s, snowflakes fly across western Lower Michigan. An inch of snow accumulates at Muskegon.
2002: Cold weather arrives across western Lower Michigan with high temperatures only around 40 degrees and periods of wet snow mixing in with cold rain.
October 18
1834: One of the first recorded tornadoes in Michigan strikes Kalamazoo, damaging several homes and businesses.
1972: It is an early taste of winter as a snowstorm hits Lower Michigan. The storm drops 4.6 inches of snow at Muskegon, the heaviest snow on record for so early in the season there.
1976: A cold snap drops the temperature at Grand Rapids to 19 degrees for an early-season record.
2007: A tornado with top winds estimated at about 130 mph strikes Williamston in Ingham County. Two people are killed when their mobile home is demolished. Several other homes are heavily damaged.
October 19
1989: Four to five inches of snow falls across Lower Michigan as a record early season snowfall causes power outages and travel delays.
October 20
1992: One to three inches of snow blankets southwest Lower Michigan at the culmination of three days of wintry weather with lows around 30 degrees and highs in the lower 40s.
October 21
1974: It is one of the coldest mornings on record in western Lower Michigan with temperatures falling into the teens. Grand Rapids falls to 18 degrees, the lowest October temperature on record.
October 22
1953: An extended October warm spell culminates with record highs around 80 degrees. At Grand Rapids, it is the third consecutive day with record high temperatures.
October 23
1955: A cold front moving into warm and humid air results in severe thunderstorms across southwest Lower Michigan. High winds and hail caused considerable damage to windows, roofs, automobiles and trees as a severe storm passed about 15 miles south of Grand Rapids.
1959: A tornado struck near Evart in Osceola County around 4 PM, with only minor tree damage.
1963: Michigan is in the midst of a spell of record warm weather. Lansing reaches 80 degrees or higher on five consecutive days from the 22nd to the 26th.
Weather History for SE Michigan
October 17
On October 17, 1947, a three-day heat streak ended in Flint. Temperatures ranged from 86 degrees on the 15th, 82 degrees on the 16th and 84 degrees on the 17th.
October 18
On October 18, 2007, a strong and potent storm in the Upper Great Lakes drove a cold front through Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours on October 18th and 19th. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front was very warm, moist, and unstable. These conditions combined with the strong storm to produce a late-season and late-night tornado outbreak. Five tornadoes were confirmed in Southeast Michigan in Shiawassee (EF1 near Perry), Genesee (EF0 in Thetford Township), Tuscola (two EF1s near Millington and near Deford), and Huron (EF1 near Port Hope) Counties. Only a couple of minor injuries were reported. Total property damages were estimated around $1.5M.
Also on October 18, 1952, the overnight temperature dropped to 22 degrees in Flint, which is the record low temperature for the day. Curiously enough, the very next year, 1953, the daytime temperature rose to 82 degrees, setting the record high temperature for the day!
October 19
On October 19, 1989, 2.7 inches of snow and some sleet fell in Detroit, and Flint had 3.5 inches of snow.
October 20
On October 20, 2011, a deep low pressure tracked through Detroit and lead to strong northeast winds gusting to 60 mph in and around Saginaw Bay. The winds started during the evening hours of the 19th and continued through the overnight hours of the 20th. The prolonged nature of the very strong northeast winds pushed water from the Bay into the area rivers and streams including the Kawkawlin and Saginaw Rivers. Some low-lying park areas were flooded in Bay County. Numerous trees and large branches were brought down across the northern Thumb and Tri-Cities regions, leading to power outages.
Also on October 20, 1972, a two-day cold streak ended with record lows in Detroit on the 19th, 22 degrees, and on the 20th, 19 degrees.
October 21
On October 21, 1974, a record low of 17 degrees was reached in Detroit.
October 22
On October 22, 1972, Flint reports 2.4 inches of rain on the 21st and the 22nd. A three-day period of cold rain engulfed Southeast Michigan. Around 3″ of rain fell around the Flint area into the Saginaw valley while Detroit received about 1.5″. Temperature highs were mainly in the 40s and 50s. Later October of 1972 was the 3rd coldest in Saginaw and 7th coldest in Flint and the 11th coldest in Detroit.
October 23
On October 23, 2020, a line of strong to severe storms tracked across Southeast Michigan, resulting in numerous wind damage and a few 1-inch hail reports. The hardest-hit areas were around Elkton and Kinde in the Thumb, where a bowing segment caused damage to several structures and numerous trees and resulted in widespread power outages.
On October 23, 1951, 1.94 inches of precipitation fell in Flint. This is the record for the greatest amount of precipitation for the month of October in Flint.
Forecast Discussion
--Showers and storms late Wednesday into Thursday -- Today begins with a crisp clear autumn morning due to strong overnight radiational cooling. However, overnight lows as well as todays high temperatures, will be above normal. The above normal temperatures will be aided by warm southwesterly flow in the mid- levels, along with moist flow ahead of any approaching Low pressure system. The latest NAFES ensembles are showing mean temperatures anomalies are +2 sigma, indicating a slightly anomalous signal. Ahead of the approaching system will be a weak LLJ at about 35kts at 2kft. While not necessarily strong, it should provide enough low level mixing coupled with the unseasonably warm air for afternoon showers and storms. One of the limiting factors will be the timing as this system will reach the region late in the day with the strongest PWATS moving through northern Michigan and arriving well after sunset. So while storms are possible, they will tend to be scattered through southwest Michigan and will lack organization and will not be severe. Showers are likely, but as stated above, the strongest moisture will be to the north so flooding is not a concern, especially with the speed that these showers/storms will be moving. Showers and storms will move through northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday and as they move through central into eastern Michigan, the mid to near range models show the overnight convection organizing into a cohesive line towards Thursday morning. While this will mainly effect the eastern half of the state, any line of showers and storms that form could affect the US 127 corridor including Lansing and Jackson. As stated above, none of this is expected to become severe. --Cooler Weather Friday through most of the weekend As the mid to upper level low traverses the Great Lakes, it will be pulled into a larger upper level trough extending from around Hudson Bay through the Midwest. Strong northerly flow will drop a cold front across Michigan Thursday evening into Friday morning. The mid range models are in decent agreement that colder air, 0C to -2C at 850mb, will advect into the area by 12Z Friday morning. The strong northerly flow along with gusty winds will allow for a blustery day on Friday. The coldest temperatures in this period will be Saturday morning with patchy frost possible so if you have any vegetation left it would be a good idea to protect it. There are some outlining models along US 10 that have the potential for snow flurries. However, given the lack of moisture it is unlikely and if it does occur will not amount to anything. The colder air mass will linger over the state into Sunday before the northwesterly flow shifts to the east Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough gives wave to another system move in from the central US. That will moderate temperatures and bring warmer air into the region late Sunday into the upcoming work week. The model solutions begin to diverge as the GFS has a better chance of precipitation Sunday. However the EC has the strong, dry easterly flow mainly fending off any approaching precipitation. So while precipitation is possible Sunday into Monday, it will be inhibited into coming into a drier air mass and will have contend with dry air advecting into it. The best chance for precipitation Sunday into Monday will be along the I-94 corridor --Chance for significant precipitation mid next week -- Strong, divergent upper level flow will move any precipitation to the northeast Monday morning with northwesterly flow once again taking the stage into Tuesday. A weak upper level ridge will move over the area before a deepening low wave trough develops in the Midwest as traverses the Great Lakes states Wednesday into Thursday. There is some signal for decent QPF though the best PWATS are to the north of the region.
It is pouring out there. Lots of thunder and lightning too. We spent the day getting things ready for winter. Like cutting back plants. We cut back all our geraniums and we store the pots in the garage over winter. This will be the 4th year we have done
this and the plants are beautiful. I would love to see the trees start turning.
Rain…one drop every three feet.
Ran to Holland and it’s almost shocking the complete lack of color in the trees for being October 20! I saw maybe 3 or 4 trees that kind of had some pale color, but by far most are still green. What happened to all the September frosts someone was posting about? Looks like it will be well into November?! December? Keep those mowers running.
I am getting the yard ready for the winter season. Yesterday I kind of cleaned up the garage and put the cover on the outside part of the AC this is by far the latest that I have done that. I also have dug up the gladiolus and will get them ready for winter storage. Today I will dig up the elephant ear plants. It was a very good year for my elephant ears and they grew up to almost 5 feet tall. I have plants in pots that I will keep as long as possible. I will also cut… Read more »
Today will officially be the end of our 5 month summer this year. It was a great run we had!
Come on Mookie! Don’t close the door on summer so fast, plenty of mild temps to go for weeks on end!! Keep the WARMTH Rockin!!!
Still looking warmer than average but our average temps are dropping like a rock now. But yes, still plenty of 50’s and 60’s!
This must be that pattern change we’ve been hearing about??
With mostly clear skies the overnight low here at my house dropped down to 46. That is still above the average low of 41.2. At this time with partly cloudy skies it it 48 here.
Slim
Quite the incredible stretch of above average temps. Seems we’ve maybe had 1 or 2 below average days in the last month? Summer keeps rolling along…..