Every February 2 since 1887, Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania has made his weather prediction. If it’s sunny and he sees his shadow, it’s said we’ll see six more weeks of winter. If it’s cloudy and he doesn’t see his shadow, it’s said to mean an early spring. Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club show Phil has predicted 105 continued winters and only 20 early springs. According to the Stormfax Almanac, that works out to a 39% accuracy rate for Phil. In my research I found that in Germany a badger was used for their forecasting tool – I sure wouldn’t want to grab hold of one of them.
Phil will see his shadow this morning before the clouds move back in later today. This afternoon, an Arctic cold front will sweep through the area, pushing in much colder air. Snow showers will develop this afternoon with a dusting to an inch of snow possible across Central Lower Michigan. Highs will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most areas. It will be windy with southwest winds becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
January Summary
Here is the January monthly climate summary. Highlights included it being in the top 5 for the warmest January on record. Very little snow fell during the first 3 weeks of the month and it was the cloudiest January in Grand Rapids since 2004.
Grand Rapids Forecast
2 2 grrLansing Forecast
2 2 lanKalamazoo Forecast
2 2 kzoForecast Discussion
--Snow Showers/Squalls Today-- Periods of clear skies with some pockets of mid cloud will greet us this morning. Some sunshine will make way for an arctic front that will propagate across the region this afternoon and evening. Expect skies to cloud this after noon. The arctic front will swing through at that time bringing a band of snow showers to the region. However models continue to show it being fairly dry so accumulations from the front are not expected. --Lake effect snow with cold wind chills tonight into Friday-- Behind the front the strong northwesterly flow will create lake effect snow showers late tonight into Friday. This will bring 1 to 3 inches along the lake shore with a are of 2 to 4 inches of snowfall possible south of Holland. The strong winds, the arctic air and snowpack will bring sub zero lows Friday night into Saturday morning. Through this timeframe there is the potential for wind chills to drop to -15 F and below. Have held off on an advisory for now but there is a chance for it from 06Z to 15Z Friday. --Warm air swing into next week-- The roller coaster that has been this winter continues as high pressure next week will lift warm air into the region Monday into Tuesday. There remains a lot of ensemble spread for next week. A clipper system with a southern stream counterpart could bring rain and/or mix of precip Tuesday into Wednesday.
THE Ice fishing is tremendous up here in Boyne but today was brutal with the 40 mph winds and snow falling couldn’t get out on the ice so a nice cold sprite and some keno inside this afternoon was just about right….. INDY
Enjoy your time. That area up near Boyne Falls/Boyne City and Charleviox is a very nice part of the state.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2023/02/is-winter-toast-brutal-arctic-cold-may-be-done-after-saturday-morning.html
Interesting read! Unfortunately it will probably ignite a firestorm of comments on here.
Keep posting the great news Mark!! BRING ON THE WARMTH!!! Short winters ROCK!!
Gonna bring tears to Kirkwood’s eyes again! LOL!!!
I hate to say this but I am so ready for Spring. I am done with the cold, ice & snow. I adopted a very young dog and she is not liking it either. lol!!
Me too. I used to really dislike winter but not so much anymore. Not trying to be political but with each passing year, winters seem to be shorter and less brutal.
HOWELL, Mich. (WILX) – Michigan’s official groundhog, Woody, made her annual Groundhog Day prediction Thursday morning.
With a large crowd gathered around “Woody’s House” at the Howell Nature Center, the bundled-up onlookers saw Woody emerge to not see her shadow, signaling an early spring, according to the Groundhog Day legend.
Her Pennsylvania counterpart, Punxsutawney Phil, did see his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter. Phil’s accuracy rate is 38%, while Woody’s is 67%.
This year marks Woody’s 25th annual prediction at the Howell Nature Center.
Just more great news!! Woody knows what he’s talking about!
…WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY…
* WHAT…Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as
15 below zero.
* WHERE…Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.
* WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS…Extended exposure to the cold and wind could result
in hypothermia or frostbite.
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY…
* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 4
inches.
* WHERE…Mason, Oceana, Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan and Van Buren
counties.
* WHEN…From 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes.
Getting hammered with snow in Boyne city actually Getting blizzard conditions right now we have a Winter weather advisory up to 8 inches of snow tonight here .. Winter in full force in nothern Michigan thats a fact …INDY
UPDATE… Issued at 1250 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 We have issued a Wind Chill Advisory most of the forecast area for tonight into Friday morning and a Winter Weather Advisory for the coastal counties for tonight and Friday for lake effect snow. HRRR model soundings show inversion heights aboove 5000 feet AGL with lake effect snow showers persisting for more than 12 hours. Even given relatively dry air and low inversion heights, persistent northwest flow of cold air over the largely unfrozen lake will produce 3 to 5 inches across the western/northwestern coastal counties, with some localized amounts… Read more »
Wind Chill Advisory for all counties away from Lake Michigan with the expecting of Kalamazoo for wind chills as cold as -15.
And a Winter Weather Advisory for all the lakeshore counties for up to 4” of snow
Sounds like there could even be some higher snow amounts in certain locations as well
The news said the northeast is looking at wind chill values for which they have not seen in a couple of decades.
Meanwhile, back to reality! It is winter and we have a lot of snow left to come! I am heading out for an afternoon of cross county skiing! Perfect winter weather baby! Get outside and enjoy!
When I See 70’s and 80’s post for April in west Michigan coming I laugh lets be real here lots of times we have a warmer January and February in west Michigan we get blasted with a Polar vortex in March and April with snow .. To say Winter is over please share the drugs thank you lol….INDY
I know Indy and as long as this blog has been in existence Mookie aka fixxer has been stating Spring is right around when February hits and some other warm weather fanatics also join in with this bunk, basically they are desperate for winter to end and warm temps to begin and they become delusional! Incredible!
Mookie is not the old fixxer.
Slim
Is that a proven fact?
So far this winter season there have been 32 days with 1″ or more of snow on the ground. On average by this time there should be around 42 days with 1″ of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids. The average for February is 19days for March 9 days and for April 1 day. For the year on average there are 70 days with 1″ or more with the least being just 23 in the winter of 1982/83 and the most being 124 in 1904. Can March be cold and snowy? Well short answer yes it can in that… Read more »
According to AWSSI, GR is having a below average winter for winter conditions. And that’s before the big warm up coming!
Most of February looks melty and sloppy.
Who wouldn’t want cold and snow in February?
Breaking Weather Alert >>>>>this happens every year in February! The warm weather fanatics complain about winter and then tell us winter is over and Spring is here! They are always wrong! No winter is not over, no we are not right around the corner of nice Spring weather and yes we will be seeing the cold hang on at least into April, so get used to it!
Every year I think winter is done on Grandhog Day, and then we end up having 3 more months until decent weather. Hopefully this year is different… I like winter, but when March comes I’m ready for spring
Sorry but March will be colder and snowier than normal this year! Mark it down!
LOL When did we have 3 more months of winter after Groundhog Day?
Last March, we were mainly in the 40’s, 50’s, and 60’s. March 2021 saw no measurable snow and got all the way up to 74 degrees.
He never said 3 month of winter after Groundhog Day. March is up and down and April is as well. Solid nice spring weather generally arrives in May. I’m pretty sure that’s what Nathan means and to be honest it is true.
Kyle, I agree with Nathan and you. Here in Michigan we do not get decent weather until May in most years with March and much of April not all that nice on a continues bases. Heck even in May there can be days that are not all that nice.
Slim
I disagree 100%. Looking at the past few Aprils, GR usually sees 10-20 days in April with temps 60 degrees to 85 degrees. That’s not “decent weather?” That’s actually perfect weather to me.
Of course slim, Kyle and Nathan are spot on correct! Most of March and April is on the cool to cold side, in GR does not even see the average high above 60 degrees until around April 21st, wow just wow!
I was referring to consistent decent weather, such as consistent 60s+. Which usually happens in May. I’m not referring to “winter” weather
Spot on correct!
We call that summer or early summer
Small craft advisory out on the lake today?! Can’t say I remember ever seeing that in February. We were at the beach yesterday and the channel and lake are still open water. Very odd Winter with so many days of rain in January, and now more rain on the way for February.
Another bad year for ice fishing. The total ice coverage of the Great Lakes is only 11.98%. It finally reached double digits two days ago:
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/glsea_png/ice_stat.txt
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ice.html
Funny thing is that ice will probably all be gone by this time next week.
One year ago parts of our area were in the process of getting a pretty hefty snowstorm. I picked up 10” on this date last year and Lansing got 13”.
I did not see my shadow at 6 am this morning when I left for work, so by the forecasts and models I’m seeing, that are based on actual science, looks like Michigan has a couple days of winter coming then a nice LONG stretch of SPRING WARMTH after that!! Who wouldn’t love WARM WEATHER this time of year?!?!?
To each their own definition of “ spring warmth” but I don’t consider 40s “warm”. Maybe greater than 50
Lol! True, I was comparing in relative terms to the highs forecast for tomorrow.
It’s time to face real reality and understand that the warmth and melt begins Sunday and lasts as far as the eye can see! Don’t get caught up in the wishcasting that some put out there!
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b523690bfd952b86fef3627c919dd9855281a8da16b83c10bdd381c64ae12cbc
Wow Groundhog Day! GR is well above normal
for snowfall and now 6 more weeks of winter! It’s time to face reality and continue to focus on winter and the impending cold and snow that will hang on well into March! Incredible! Bring it!
You may be right. Other than the couple of days this week, there has not been any true cold this winter. We may be in for a surprise at the tail end of the season.
Slim when was the last time GR was above average snowfall for the Winter season in January?? Pretty amazing we are pushing the century mark and its February 1st wow ….INDY
The winter of 2013/14 Grand Rapids had 91.9″ at the end of January.
Slim
Wow long time ago … INDY
I am in Boyn Mountain for my mid Winter break I must say GR has more snow then Boyne but all the way up here yesterday everyone has snow on the ground quite a Winter wonderland across lower and upper Michigan… .. Beautiful…INDY
Wow Groundhog Day? Where did winter go? It’s time to start thinking about spring.
Groundhog Day already?? Crystal clear skies again this morning, which I love. Has anyone seen the green comet?
We did go out last night but it was difficult to find with the bright moon shining not to far away from it. Could only see a fuzzy smudge in binoculars, couldn’t even see it with just our eyes.
I forgot about it because it was so cloudy when they were first talking about it.
Will the Ground Hog see his shadow? Well the skies are clear here and they are also clear in eastern PA so in reality the old hog should see his shadow
Slim
The ground hog did see his shadow so 6 more weeks of winter? well maybe.
Slim
Happy Ground Hog Day! The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 26/10 there was a trace of snow fall. There is officially 6” of snow on the ground. There was 88% of possible sunshine for one of the sunniest days in some time. The overnight low here in MBY has been 16 and it looks like the official low was 18. At the current time it is clear and 17 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 31/18 and the record high of 50 was set in 2020. The record low of -11 was set in 1921.… Read more »