We had a temp of 8.6° just before midnight last night and temps rose to 16.7° by 02:30 before falling back to 14.2° this morning at 7 am. Skies were partly cloudy for awhile allowing the temps to drop then of course the clouds moved back in to help hold whatever little warmth we had keeping it from radiating off into space.
We may see the coldest air of the season over the next couple of days which may be our last run at seeing 0° or below which seems to have been elusive the past couple of years. I am thinking most would rather not experience this and that we must be crazy to cheer such a thing on. I have experienced 40 to 50° below zero so for me, zero is a cakewalk.
Lansing, Mason, Charlotte, St. Johns areas: Freezing fog overnight may have deposited some ice on roads and sidewalks. Be cautious out there this morning.
There are hints of a warmup by the end of the week with temps rising to above freezing by early next week. After all this cold air that will seem like t-shirt weather…
Snow showers mainly near Lake Michigan today, then light snow develops in southern Michigan Sunday night into Monday morning. More accumulating snow is becoming likely Monday night, and the more southeast you are, the greater your chances.
Forecast Discussion
--Localized freezing fog this morning east-- To start today we have a few potential travel impacts. First, the clearing that happened inland from Lk MI has resulted in a few areas of freezing fog that could lead to some icy patches and locally reduced visibilities. Second, light lake effect snow showers near and west of 131 may result in slippery conditions. Finally, even where it`s stopped snowing the widespread snow left behind from Saturday`s synoptic event has left many roads snow covered. --Colder next few days with periods of snow continuing-- As the closed upper low in the vicinity of Lk Superior tracks slowly east the next couple days, a strong jet diving southeast from the Pacific northwest helps to carve out a longwave trough over the nation`s mid section. Southwesterly flow aloft sends impulses out of the base of that trough which ride along the baroclinic zone situated to the south of Michigan. This will lead to additional bouts of synoptic snow which will be mostly on the lighter side. The most notable wave is the one that comes out for Monday night and the higher QPF with this stays off to our southeast. Even still, the deformation zone will impact srn Lwr MI for a time and areas south and east of GRR may see 2-4 inches out of this. Preceding that main wave, a weaker wave tonight into Monday morning could lead to some local accumulations of an inch two around JXN. These waves passing by to our southeast will continue to pull in cold air from the north/northeast and highs the next few days will only be in the mid teens. Minimum wind chill temps in the morning, including the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday morning commutes, will be from zero to 10 below over much of the area. Lake effect snow will mostly push offshore again tonight as the low level flow goes north-northeast. However lake effect bands will continue to clip the Ludington area resulting in additional local accumulations of a few inches into Monday. --Potential system Thurs ngt and Friday, not as cold-- We have another system to monitor Thursday night and Friday which takes a similar path to the Monday night-Tuesday system. The deformation zone from this system could produce a few inches of accumulation, especially south and east of GRR. Obviously a farther northwest track could spread accumulating snow over more of the area with the potential of more than just a few inches. Temps moderate a bit toward the end of the week, with most guidance indicating highs getting back up into the mid to upper 20s.
The new NAM just come out ? Does anyone else see that trended a tad more NW since the last model run ?
This is an absolutely beautiful sight!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021021418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
Breaking news>>>>this so called big warm up in about 9 days will be short lived and then right back to near to below normal temps with plenty of snow storms! I love it!
Ck this out!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php?STATIONID=GRR
Some beautiful WARMTH heading our way!! SPRING will be here soon!! The most awful season will be coming to an end soon!
Liking the colors !
Ok, i am officially tired of shoveling.. Lol. If we get more as predicted, i dont know were i will put it.
Tell Rocky to come over and shovel for you, he loves this white trash!
WWA = winter weather amazing! This winter has turned into one of the better ones for winter sports, despite the warm weather fanatic hype!
Get ready! Another WWA is on the way for tonight, tomorrow and Monday night! The great winter just keeps rolling! Incredible!
Already issued. 😁
Rock n roll will never end!
A WWA for 2 inches of snow??? Too funny! They must have Rocky working at the NWS now!
WWA = Winter Wishcasting Advisory!
Every run gents better and better! We are in a perfect stretch of winter weather!
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2021021412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
This has been an awesome winter for outdoor sports! Part of January I needed to drive a little bit North, however I have been skiing and snowshoeing for weeks on end and the weather has been near perfect! Keep the cold and snow rocking!
Good post yesterday Slim. I do wonder about the seasonal average for Holland with regards to snowfall. How is Holland 5 inches less than Grand Rapids with the extra lake effect they tend to get?
Barry that is a good question. I did not come up with the numbers they are from a 3rd party. But it looks like what they did was from 1914 to 1942 Holland kept good snow fall records and in that time the mean was 53.2″ with the highest of 91.5″ in 1935/36 and the lowest of 20.0 reported in 1932/33. Then there was a break and from 1942/43 to 1974/75 the mean was 85.6″ with the highest of 159.9″ in 1970/71 and the lowest of 30.4″ in 1948/49. Looks like they took 85.6 + 53.2 = 138.8/2=69.4″ From 1975… Read more »
As for the weather, I wish every Winter was like this one. Never started till late January, then a couple cool weeks of Winter weather, then back to above average temps in the outlooks. We’ve only had a “snowpack” for about 2 weeks now because most of January was well above freezing with our extended January “thaw”. Some claim we’ve had a snowpack for months on end now, but here’s the pics I posted just 3 weeks ago. Where was the snow?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/184860862@N07/50860352506/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/184860862@N07/50860447052/in/dateposted-public/
Hard to argue photographic evidence with unsubstantiated claims.
Hey all! Been a hard couple weeks with several family members getting hit hard with the virus and my business finally being allowed to open. My father has greatly improved, but his brother passed away early last week from complications with the virus. The weather has kind of taken a back seat for me with everything going on.
Sorry to hear that Barry. The virus is nasty and non discriminate! I am still amazed that there are ignorant people out there will not wear a mask! Ridiculous!
That stinks. 😢
Sorry for your whole family. Glad to hear your dad is getting better!
Take Care!
The snow maps are looking better and better! Move that storm 100 miles to the Northwest and bam we will be getting hammered!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=GRR
Here’s something you don’t see every day. Check out weather.gov. The entire states of Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma are under a Winter Storm Warning.
Looks good!
With just over 11 inches of snow on the ground this morning I have to say there is a lot of snow out there. The official snow fall numbers for Grand Rapids are now for February 19.2″ Season 34.4″ that is still -23.0″ At Muskegon for February 11.4″ season 34.1″ that is -38.9″ to the east at Lansing February 11.4″ Season 28.9″ that is -7.3″ there is between 9 and 12″ of snow on the ground in the area.
Slim
I have actually seen snowmobile tracks in this area. It’s been a long time since I have seen them.
Who would have thought? It has been a great winter for outdoor sports!
I love the title “coldest air of the season”. This has been one of the longest stretches and cold and snow in the last few years! Absolutely GREAT winter sports conditions! Who wouldn’t love this?
YES since Christmas day we have been able to enjoy a lot of winter fun we can’t make this up no thaws no 50’s and no rain who would of thought ….Best in years …INDY
Rock on Indy and yet the warm weather nuts keep saying not much of a winter! Incredible!