Cold with Light Snow Showers

Michigan is back to its status as a winter wonderland.  Temperatures will remain well below freezing (32°) this week so our snow cover won’t be going anywhere soon.  At this point, it doesn’t appear to be any major snow storms on the horizon over the next several days, just a few light snow showers with maybe a couple of inches (or less) for SW lower Michigan.  Temperatures will be falling throughout the day into the teens.  We have 21° at 6 am.

Grand Rapids Forecast

Lansing Forecast

Kalamazoo Forecast

Forecast Discussion

-- Areas of light snow / flurries this morning --

Regional radar mosaics have shown light reflectivity in recent hours
from mesoscale bands of snow. Persistent virga was evident earlier this
morning on KGRR radar (most apparent at higher elevation tilts),
a consequence of sublimation within a dry layer centered near 7
kft. Nevertheless, light snow has been reported in numerous recent
surface obs. This banded snowfall appears to be associated with
an area of weak low/midlevel frontogenesis along the sloped
frontal zone that remains positioned over the region. Recent 3-km
NAM guidance is representing this activity reasonably, and
suggests that this activity will depart east of the forecast area
after 9 AM. Where snow reaches the surface, a light dusting is
possible.

-- Lake-effect snow showers later today and Tue; light accums --

A broad area of surface high pressure--currently over the central
plains--will advance eastward into the region today, accompanied by
broad subsidence and anticyclonic low-level flow curvature. Low-
level cold advection ahead of this high will yield 850-mb temps
falling to near -19C by this evening. Model time-height sections at
lakeshore locations continue to indicate somewhat low inversion
heights (4-5 kft) and shallow cloud-layer depths. However, the DGZ
will be fully positioned within the cloud layer, supporting light
lake-effect snow showers today and tonight. With northwest boundary-
layer flow, lake-effect showers will mainly affect areas along/west
of US-131. In this area, snowfall accums through tonight will
generally range from a dusting up to 1".

Inversion heights will likely decrease overnight, but forcing for
ascent in advance of an approaching vort max on Tue may foster a
slight rebound in inversion heights and increased lift in the DGZ.
Still, any additional accums on Tue are expected to be light once
again.

-- Dry Wed, sunshine likely in many areas --

As surface high pressure departs southeastward on Wed, low-level
warm advection will contribute to 850-mb temps warming to -7C by Wed
evening. Time-height sections suggest that lake-induced
stratocumulus will likely erode appreciably, allowing some sunshine
in many areas.

-- Thu into Sat --

Guidance continues to suggest that a midlevel shortwave trough will
dive southeastward over the northern Great Lakes on Thu. This wave
will likely facilitate cyclogenesis over Quebec, culminating with
the establishment of a deep upper low/trough over central Quebec on
Fri. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will progress southward
through the Great Lakes on Thu. Behind the front, Lower MI will be
glanced by advancing arctic air. Coldest 850-mb temps (around -42C)
will likely be found in Quebec on Fri, with temps near
-18C (EPS median) over the forecast area.

Some glancing light synoptic snow may occur across the northern
forecast area on Thu, associated with the aforementioned shortwave
trough and front, but no PoPs will be introduced with this update. A
period of lake-effect snow is possible on Thu night and Fri, then
ensemble guidance continues to suggest that another strong surface
high will settle into the region around Fri night. Low-level warm
advection will commence again on Sat as this high continues
eastward, with warming daytime temps likely for the weekend.