Yesterday we had a brief heavy snow shower which caused some accumulation on my decks, about a tenth of an inch of liquid moisture. Our high was 49.3°, last night’s low so far is 33° with a heavy frost.
Tomorrow we will see a day of scattered showers on the order of .25 to .50 of an inch. The rain totals will be greater the further south of I96 you go. Temps tonight will be milder around the 40° mark. We are still on track to see temps near the 80° mark early next week.
Forecast Discussion
-- Milder temperatures and a rainy Saturday -- Sunshine today will become increasingly filtered through cirrostratus and altostratus. A plume of slightly warmer air at 850 mb will be over us, allowing high temperatures to reach near normal for the first time since Sunday. Rain on Saturday (especially the all-day washout kind) is not guaranteed for everyone, and there remain considerable differences in rainfall amounts among HREF and ECMWF ensemble members ranging from less than 0.10 to as much as 0.75 inches even at any one particular location. The upper level trough is not fully phased as it passes over Michigan, with the two distinct vorticity maxima located over the Ohio Valley and northern Wisconsin/Michigan. The greatest potential for rain will develop amid a plume of mid-level moisture from the southern stream undergoing isentropic ascent over southern Michigan. It`s this area of steady, more stratiform rain where models are most disagreeing with both amounts and northward extent, but this would provide the greatest potential for an all-day gently soaking rainfall. More showery (shallow convection) and spotty rain amounts may develop later in the day farther north in central Michigan associated with the northern upper level trough and surface cold front. -- Warm Tuesday then potential for heavier rain mid/late week -- After a cool Sunday behind the cold front, temperatures rebound on Monday as strong warm-air advection resumes. There is a fair amount of spread among the ensembles for Monday`s high temperature depending on how quickly the warm air can return, though a majority of ECMWF members give areas south of I-96 temperatures well into the 60s, with central Michigan staying a little cooler. Tuesday appears to be the day with greatest predictability next week, with a sharp Rossby wave trough carved out in the western CONUS and a building ridge over the Midwest. Nearly all members of the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles give Grand Rapids a high in the mid 70s to around 80. Will introduce thunder chances Tuesday night as mid-level lapse rates are steep and an extension of the low level jet may advect moisture underneath. The predictability of exact temperatures and precipitation chances thereafter is lower, but in a broad sense, as the trough moves through the center of the country and deep moisture advects from the Gulf over the Great Lakes, a cluster of ensemble members provides 1 to 2 inch rain swaths over us sometime between Wed and Thu. The evolution of this trough later in the week is completely in question, and while temperatures Thu into Fri may trend cooler and near normal within and behind the trough, there remain a number of ensemble members that bring warmth back for the first weekend of May.
Wow to the wow with May about week away we are still having lows in the 30’s down to 32* last night in my area crazy cold sure not helping with the pools lol….Hace a super weekend stay warm INDY
The low here at my house was 29.3 While colder than average it is still common. The average last date for lows below 30 is April 26th with a range of between April 1 2019 to May 27th 1961. For 32 the mean date is May 2nd with a range of between April 6 1925 to June 4 1945.
Slim
Perfectly normal
No one in their right mind would have their pool opened yet!
GR ended up with only 46.1″ of snow this year. For those keeping track, the official prediction from WOOD was 68″ and many on here predicted far more than that.
I am curious to go back and look at everyone’s predictions last Fall. I think just about everyone was way off including myself. I believe I guessed within 10% of average, up or down. Almost 30 inches below average, wow!
Here are some of the winter outlooks that I have found.
https://www.9and10news.com/2020/11/05/2020-2021-winter-forecast/
https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-10-14-winter-2020-2021-temperature-outlook-united-states
https://www.clickondetroit.com/weather/2020/11/20/michigan-winter-outlook-what-la-nina-could-mean-for-storms-temperatures/
https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2021
Slim
The last snow fall of one inch or more at Grand Rapids this winter season was on February 27th. Unless there is a surprise snow fall of a inch or more in May (it has happened) This winter season will become the 5th earliest that has happened. The earliest was February 19, 1908. Then February 20th 1945 then February 21st 2009 and February 22nd 1910. This seasons snow fall total (if no snow falls in May) will end up being the least at Grand Rapids since the winter of 1982/83 It will be the 2nd lowest amount since the reporting… Read more »
The last snowfall more than 1″ was February 16th. Wow!
I used 1″ bench mark and the last time 1″ or more fell was on February 27th On the 16th 3″ fell and there have been years where 3″ or more did not fall all winter and some when the last 3″ fall was in December. But still the winter of 2020/21 has been one of the least snowy at Grand Rapids.
Slim
I like the benchmark of more than 1″ myself
The official overnight low at GRR was 32 here at my house I had a low of 29. At this time it up to 40 here. For the month of April the mean is now 47.6 and that is good for a departure of +1.2.
Slim
Let’s review the facts: Still warmer than average in April with practically zero snow since middle February and now another big warm up!