New Normal
While some people like to call them “normal” I would rather call them “average” what I am talking about are the average temperatures, precipitation, snow fall amounts ect.
NOAA will soon release a much-anticipated update of U.S. climate data for placing recent weather conditions—such as heat waves and flooding rain—into historical context. Climatologists from NOAA NCEI are currently compiling and reviewing 30 years of weather and climate data from across the U.S. to serve as the nation’s updated climate “normals” for the next 10 years. This new 30-year dataset will span from 1991 to 2020 and is scheduled for release in May 2021.
The current 30 year “normal” covers the period from 1981 to 2010 and is calculated from observations at approximately 9,800 stations across the U.S. operated by NOAA National Weather Service.
Why is 30 years considered the standard? In 1935, the World Meteorological Organization instructed member Nations to calculate climate normals using a 30-year period, beginning with 1901–1930.
NOAA scientists produce traditional 30-year Normals that meet this international convention, but they have also provided other reference time periods as needed. For example, time series for climate change studies are often compared to a more-lengthy 1901–2000 average set, and supplemental normals for shorter periods are also provided. In this next round of Climate Normals, new things will be added—including several small changes to how NCEI calculates them. For the first time, this updated batch of Normals will include 15-year Normals for those needing a climatology representing a period closer to today. NOAA will also release high spatial resolution monthly Normals data for the conterminous U.S., as well as develop new tools and methods to access the data.
I would look for most locations to see an increase in average temperatures. I would also look for a small increase in precipitation. And snow fall totals as well.
So far this April has been a good example of some of the extremes you can see. This month we have had both extremes of warmth and cold. On April 2nd the low of 16 was the 3rd coldest low for that dated. And just a few days later on April 6th Grand Rapids had the 4th the high of 78 was the 4th warmest for that date and the next days high of 80 was the 2nd warmest for any April 7th and not to be out done on April 8th the high of 74 set a new record high for that dated. But then on April 20th the high of 40 was the 4th coldest maximum for the date and on the 21st the high of 41 was the 2nd coldest maximum and low of 25 was the 5th coldest low.
The last snow fall of one inch or more at Grand Rapids this winter season was on February 27th. Unless there is a surprise snow fall of a inch or more in May (it has happened) This winter season will become the 5th earliest that has happened. The earliest was February 19, 1908. Then February 20th 1945 then February 21st 2009 and February 22nd 1910. This seasons snow fall total (if no snow falls in May) will end up being the least at Grand Rapids since the winter of 1982/83 It will be the 2nd lowest amount since the reporting location moved to the new location and just the 4th time less than 50” fell at the current location and that is going back to 1962.
Slim
Another frost is on the way for tonight! We have had an incredibly cold week! Wow!
It appears (to my untrained eyes) that the budding of the trees in my area, as well as the tulips have been “paused”. Does anyone else agree with this, or is it my imagination? No doubt this will change from today forward…
Thanks Slim! As someone who loves stats and numbers I look forward to the new set of 30 year averages. Should be interesting to see how the numbers move. And wow, least amount of snow since the early ‘80s? That’s 40years ago!