Today is the first day of Autumn which officially begins at 9:30 am and will last through December 21st when the Winter Solstice begins. Sunrise today is at 7:30, sunset is 7:39.
The Earth makes a complete revolution around the sun once every 365 days, following an orbit that is elliptical in shape. This means that the distance between the Earth and Sun, which is 93 million miles on average, varies throughout the year. During the first week in January, the Earth is about 1.6 million miles closer to the sun. This is referred to as the perihelion. The aphelion, or the point at which the Earth is about 1.6 million miles farther away from the sun, occurs during the first week in July. This fact may sound counter to what we know about seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, but actually the difference is not significant in terms of climate and is NOT the reason why we have seasons. Seasons are caused by the fact that the Earth is tilted on its axis by 23.5°. The tilt’s orientation with respect to space does not change during the year; thus, the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun in June and away from the sun in December, as illustrated in the graphic below.
As of late, I haven’t put much credence in the long-range CPC Outlooks. It does appear we will have another flip in the weather patterns for next week which will bring about a cooler wetter pattern into the area.
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Forecast Discussion
- Continued dry with moderating temps this week Latest short to medium range guidance continues to indicate that it will be mild and dry through Saturday afternoon with above normal temperatures for this time of year. High temps will reach into the 70s for most of the week and may reach the 80 degree mark late in the week and Saturday. - Smoke aloft at times Smoke aloft will continue to move into our area at times this week due to westerly mid level winds through at least Friday. High temps could be held down by a degree or two on days that smoke is most prominent. Latest runs of the HRRR smoke dispersion model suggest that smoke could be quite prevalent across our area today (especially over our southern fcst area). - Rain Saturday Night/Sunday into early next week A strong cold front will bring rain Saturday night/Sunday. It is noted that trends in a consensus of latest medium range guidance are now a little faster with the cold frontal timing such that the best chance for rain could already come Saturday night. Post frontal rain showers are forecast early next week as the upper trof axis moves overhead. H8 temps falling to around 2 C or so also support potential for lake effect rain showers as lake induced instability increases.
HRRR Smoke Forecast
Kind of a surprise I am now getting a rain shower with a temperature of 61.
Slim
you must have been in that 20% chance area the NWS was talking about 🙂
Very nice Fall day …I was surprised myself locals botched this day up lol…INDY
Fall? It’s going to feel like summer for at least another 5 or 6 days. I love it!
What happened through October boy that SPC changed its mind mighty fast great Scotty ….INDY ..
With just 9 days left in September now is a good time to see where we stared for this month. At Grand Rapids the mean so far this month is 61.0 that is a departure of -3.7 the high for the month so far is 85 and the low so far is 36. There has been 2.10” of rain. At Muskegon the mean is 62.2 that is a departure of -1.6 the high so far 81 and the low so far is 37 and they have had 1.37” of rain. At Holland the mean is 61.3 the high so far… Read more »
Yes Slim September has been a cold month that’s for sure great stats thank you …..INDY
Good morning It’s been feeling like Fall around here for over a month now so we can officially say welcome to a on going Fall today but so loving the INDY Summer for the next few days I have a few more projects around the house I haft to rake up before the 50’s and more rain move in next week wow another cool night out at thee YARDofBRICKS we had a low of 46* I’m hoping the cool nights fasten my old Maple out front to shed it’s leafs early usually it’s the last tree to color and depart… Read more »