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Chance of Rain – Weather History

We have light rain falling in SW Michigan this morning with a warm 70° in Otsego at 5 am.  Yesterday’s high was 86° and the low was 69°.  We expect chances of rain through tomorrow with temps in the low 80s.  We have had .63 of an inch of rain overnight for a July total of 1.36 inches.


Weather History for SW Michigan

July 3

1966: A five-day heat wave peaked with temperatures in the upper 90s. The high of 99 degrees set a daily record at Lansing, the second in a row following a high of 98 degrees on the 2nd.

July 4

1911: The phrase Hot as the Fourth of July gains new meaning as temperatures soar to near 100 degrees, for Michigan’s hottest Independence Day on record.

1969: Nature’s fireworks turn violent as severe thunderstorms form in the evening and drop several tornadoes across Lower Michigan. More than 60 people are injured, most of them from a tornado that hit Flat Rock in southern Wayne County. This tornado destroyed a tile factory, carrying sheet metal over a mile. Another tornado injured eleven people about four miles east of Jackson as it damaged a dozen mobile homes.

1974: Tornadoes strike Lower Michigan during the early afternoon. One person is injured as a tornado damaged several houses between Charlotte and Potterville in Eaton County. Tornadoes also damage barns and outbuildings in Huron and Tuscola Counties.

1977: A widespread severe weather outbreak hit Lower Michigan with tornadoes and downbursts. Two people were injured and almost a million dollars in damage was done. A tornado injured one person and destroyed two mobile homes and one barn near Maple Ridge in Arenac County. Another person was injured by a tornado at Otisville in Genesee County as four mobile homes were destroyed there. Two homes and a camper unit were heavily damaged as a tornado moved from southern Isabella County into northern Montcalm County, ending northeast of Vestaburg.

2003: The July 4th holiday turns tragic as seven people drown in rip currents on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. A line of thunderstorms earlier in the day had produced strong winds across the middle of the lake, and the dangerous currents formed several hours later.

July 5

1921: A record high of 100 degrees at Grand Rapids contributes to July 1921 becoming the warmest month on record there with a mean temperature of 79.8 degrees.

1972: Temperatures fell to record lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s across the region. The 37 degrees at Lansing was the coldest July reading of the 20th century there.

1994: Thunderstorms with hail and heavy rain pound areas of West Michigan. The 3.56 inches of rain at Grand Rapids makes this the wettest July day on record.

1921: One person was injured by a tornado that destroyed three barns while passing north of Alma and Saint Louis in Gratiot County.

July 6

1983: Cool high pressure settles over Lower Michigan and temperatures fall to record lows. The 41 degrees at Grand Rapids is the lowest ever recorded during the month of July for the Furniture City.

2014: Severe thunderstorms roll through on the night of July 6-7th. At least four tornadoes struck from near Grand Rapids to Saint Johns. A tornado with top winds estimated at 110 mph did heavy damage in the Grand Rapids suburb of Kentwood.

July 7

1991: Tornadoes strike across southern Lower Michigan. A tornado damaged about 20 homes near Highland in Oakland County. More damage occurred near Okemos in Ingham County and a home and some outbuildings were damaged as a tornado moved northeast of Rockford in Kent County. A tornado also briefly touched down northwest of Plainwell in Allegan County but did no damage.

1988: Lower Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave as the hot and dry summer of 1988 continues. Temperatures peak at 100 degrees on the 6th at Lansing and Grand Rapids, followed by a record high of 98 degrees on the 7th at Grand Rapids.

July 8

1885: A tornado damages several farms in and near Allegan, Michigan.

1936: The greatest heat wave on record gets underway across Michigan. Grand Rapids will see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees on six of the next seven days, including an all-time record high of 108 degrees on the 13th. Lansing will peak at 101 degrees on the 14th.

1951: Severe thunderstorms strike West Michigan with dozens of trees knocked down. Some of the trees block roads and damage cars and buildings

1984: Record low temperatures are set as cool air from Canada dominates the Great Lakes region. Grand Rapids falls to 46 degrees and Muskegon to 45.

July 9

1956: Cloudy and cool weather prevails with a record low maximum temperature of 64 degrees at Grand Rapids.


Weather History for SE Michigan

July 3

On July 3, 1947, the temperature rose to 96 degrees in Flint, which is the record high temperature for the day. This marked the fourth day in a row (June 30 – July 3) that record daily high temperatures were recorded in Flint!

July 4

On July 4, 2012, the temperature rose to 102 degrees in Detroit, a record for the day and its hottest temperature in nearly a quarter of a century. The temperature in Flint also reached the century mark.

Also on July 4, 1977, the “Independence Day Derecho of 1977” left a path of destruction from Minnesota to Ohio. Winds of up to 115 mph destroyed property and leveled forests over Wisconsin. By the time the derecho had reached southeast Michigan, winds had weakened to 60 to 70 mph. The storm did, however, spawn F1 tornados in Genessee, Lapeer, and Monroe counties.

Also on July 4, 1957, the strongest tornado since 1950 in Livingston County occurred at 6:55 PM. This tornado was categorized as an F4 and caused 4 injuries and up to $500,000 in damage. Also on this day in 1957, another F4 tornado swept through Oakland County, injuring two people.

July 5

On July 5, 2012, thunderstorms over northern lower Michigan quickly organized into a line of severe thunderstorms shortly after midnight. This line of storms pushed through southeast Michigan in the very early morning hours producing widespread severe winds that damaged homes and left 200,000 without power, some for several days during one of the hottest stretches of summer.

On July 5, 1988, one notable hot stretch of weather brought a string of record high temperatures to Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Record highs occurred from the 5,6 and 7 in Detroit at 96, 100 and 101 degrees. At Flint on the 6th and 7th, temperatures of 101 and 101 degrees. At Saginaw, on the 6th and 7th, had temperatures of 100, 99 degrees.

July 6

On July 6, 2003, spotters reported a 65mph wind gust at Birch Run at 9:50 pm.

July 7

On July 7, 2012, the temperature reached 100 degrees in Detroit for the second time in four days. This was the first time that Detroit had reached 100 twice in one year since 1988.

Also on July 7, 2010, the hottest day during a five-day heat wave from July 4th-July 8th occurred. High temperatures climbed into the lower 90s across most areas, producing heat indices in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. Little relief occurred during the overnight hours as lows hovered at or above 70 degrees. Two heat-related fatalities were reported.

Also on July 7, 1991, A powerful derecho surged rapidly east across Southeast Lower Michigan during the early evening hours and brought widespread wind damage and power outages. Wind gusts of 75 to 85 mph were common in the Ann Arbor, Detroit, and Pontiac areas.

July 8

On July 8, 1936, the second-highest all-time temperature was recorded in Detroit. The mercury rose to 104.4 degrees! This was the beginning of a string of seven days in a row (July 8-14) of record daily high temperatures, which were all above 100 degrees!

July 9

On July 9, 1988, the temperature soared to 100 degrees in Flint, which is the record high for the day. This marked the fifth day in a row (July 5-9) that record daily high temperatures were recorded in Flint!


Forecast Discussion

- Showers Ending This Morning -

Upstream radar and hi-res models suggest the ongoing MCS to our west
will clip southwest lower MI this morning, meaning ongoing
stratiform showers can be expected through mid to late morning south
of I-96. Showers should taper off by mid-day as expanding high
pressure north of Lake Superior spreads southwards. Northeasterly
flow persists today ushering in cooler and drier air. Cooler 850mb
temps in conjunction with more cloud cover should help keep temps
limited to the low 80s to upper 70s north.

- Rain Possible Thursday -

Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday as a midlevel
shortwave slides across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Southern
MI will be on the northern edge of precipitation, therefore greatest
rain chances exist for areas along and south of I-94. This system
may bear watching, as a northerly shift in the track could result in
more substantial rainfall with the warm front ahead of the passage
of a cold front Thursday night into Friday. As it stands now
though, a southerly track seems to be the general consensus.

- Cooler into Next Week -

Temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will persist for the remainder of
this week and into early next week as surface high pressure
dominates the pattern. Upper level subsidence associated with the
slowly drifting high pressure overhead will result in abundant
sunshine through this weekend. A deeper trough will drop into the
region during the Monday-Tuesday time frame leading to our next
chance for showers and storms.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for a stretch of daily highs that barely gets above 80 degrees! Wow!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

That will be awesome!! I am tired of the really hot temps.

*SS*
*SS*

Was able to weed the garden now that the soil is soft. We made another batch of freezer raspberry jam!!!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Sounds great! My grandma has a good strawberry jam recipe. Better than store bought!

*SS*
*SS*

I made some strawberry and some strawberry/blueberry last month!!!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That DOES sound yummy. We had an extended period of time today with gentle rain showers. The ground seemed to soak up a lot of it.

*SS*
*SS*

We always make it. It is fun to run out of I need a little more!! Good thing I share with family & friends!! Lol

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

That’s the best part. Sharing. 🙂

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

I have made strawberry jam and blueberry jam. We did some weeding too. We have lots of tomatoes growing too.

INDY
INDY

The lastest long range out look is baby Blue below normal temperatures not bad for the hottest time of the year ….. INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Incredible stretch of below normal temps! Enjoy!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

10 years ago Grand Rapids recorded its hottest temperature in 76 years of 104 degrees. That was just shy of the all time record set in 1936. 2012 is a summer that I will never forget. This is also 8 years since the tornado in that began near Byron Center (I lived in Byron Center at the time and the touchdown start point was 2 miles north of my house) then moved across 131 into Kentwood. Fun fact also the summer of 2014 we did not hit 90 in GR. Below is Storm Team 8 forecast video from July 7,… Read more »

Slim

While unofficial I recorded a high of 108 on July 6, 2012
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Seven 90 degree days here already, more than enough for my liking. Temps are better today but this 70 degree dew point has to go. Can’t do anything outside without being soaked in sweat. Yuck.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

I’ve had 5 days so far this summer with a temp of 90 or better. This has been a great summer. Anything from 80-90 to me is perfect.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I have only seen 3 days with 90 degrees or higher! What a summer!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The GR weather service rocks! Very accurate high temps for GR and very few 90 degree days so far and no 90’s in sight! Incredible!

Mookie
Mookie

Detroit has already seen 8 90+ days this year. GR is sitting at 4 – although they’ve had a bunch of 88/89 days.

Slim

The other day Barry stated. “I noticed on yesterdays climatological report the record snowfall for July 4 is a trace in 1990. Is that correct??” First off for the record the NWS indeed has a recorded “snow” fall of a trace for July 4th, 1990. The H/L for that day at Grand Rapids was 93/74 0.22” of rain fall was reported and that so called trace of snow fall. At Muskegon there is also a reported trace of snow fall for that day with a total rainfall of 0.03” and a H/L of 87/67. I wrote to the NWS office… Read more »

Mookie
Mookie

Just goes to show you that we can’t believe NWS GRR and their outrageously low temps compared to the rest of Lower Michigan.

Slim

I will say one thing I do not believe that there was snow that fell on July 4th 1990. There could have been hail but not snow.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Wow, interesting. Thanks Slim! Yeah I don’t think any snowfall would have been possible with a low of 74. Someone from the blog here hacking into the NWS? Ha

Mookie
Mookie

Should we just throw out all of NWS GRR records? I say yes! Cold weather bias.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Nice sleuth work, Slim.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Yeah no way it could have been snow must have been some small hail.

Slim

The first 5 days of June have been below average all across the UP. With what looks like a long cool down for the rest of the month July could be below average across the far north land.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Sounds great!

Mookie
Mookie

A warm May, a warm June, and now a warm start to July so far. So much sunshine too! What a summer.

Slim

June was near average in Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Holland, Flint and Saginaw. The biggest departure on the plus side for June was at Lansing. It is still too early to say how July play out but there are hints of a cooler than average pattern coming up. It has been sunny and dry. Yes, so far summer 2022 has been very nice.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

June was +0.3 in GR, +3.0 in Lansing, and +0.7 in Detroit.

Slim

Just like I said very near average except for Lansing.
Slim

Slim

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 87/70 there was 0.12” of rain fall and 45% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was a warm 71 and there was 0.03” of new rain fall here. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 104 was recoded in 2012 (I had a 108 at my house that day)
Slim

INDY
INDY

No heat as far as the eye can see for this time of year bonus … Get outside and enjoy it beautiful summer weather….INDY

Slim

There are hints of a cool down that look like it may last most of the rest of July.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

keep the cool air rocking!

Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.
Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.

1.1″ last night to go along with 0.55″ yesterday. Increasing moisture content in the soil is making farmers in the neighborhood happy.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I had to mow my mom’s and my lawn yesterday. It was hot, dusty, and miserable.

Getting some additional showers now. Every little bit helps.

Re: the excerpt above from 07/09/1991, I remember that one. It went through mostly wooded area, but just missed the Okemos High School football field.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Another cool front coming through! Highs around 80 degrees most of the week and no 90’s in sight! Wow, just wow! Keep the great, not hot summer weather rocking!

Slim

The rest of July have hints that it could be below average.
Slim