Winter has had no teeth nor bite thus far and as stated by one of the bloggers yesterday we have measured our snow in tenths rather than inches. Last year at this time we were in the middle of a cold spell with daytime highs in the low 20s and the single digits at night with lake effect snows. We had ice on inland lakes and the lakeshore waters were frozen out beyond the piers. Below is the NWS graphic for snowfall in December of 2017. What a difference a year makes.
Our weather appears to remain the same as last month with little or no snow through the 13th – below are the GEM models for snowfall and temps showing the cold air (greys) and snow fall remaining in Canada for the most part.
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The CFS and GFS are showing the same through the rest of the month. Currently the cold is is being pushed into Europe and England where temps are in the single digits.
Arctic warming in the stratosphere causes the cold air to be pushed out. Studies show that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic, and rapid Arctic warming may be leading to more frequent cold weather outbreaks in Europe, Asia and North America, particularly later in the winter. The effects may take anywhere from two to six weeks to be felt in our area.
Many atmospheric scientists including Judah Cohen are claiming this is beginning to take place and may result in an extreme back loaded winter for later in January through March. This has been discussed on the other scientific blogs I have been reading over the past month. Whether this all happens to take place remains to be seen, however I can’t believe we will not get through the whole winter without some cold and snow which will be a shock if and when it takes place. Our weather transitions can be swift and unrelenting – we will have to keep an eye out for a cold and snowy pattern developing after mid month through early spring.
Meanwhile we will continue with our current pattern of above normal temps through the next several days with temps rising into the 40s by tomorrow on through the weekend. Our next chance of precip will come Sunday night which will be another rain event.
It is a winter wonder land up here at Boyne mt and the traverse city area. They got pounded with snow and great winter sports conditions! Cloudy and temps around 30 degrees with perfect snow! Absolutely beautiful!
The WARMTH is waiting for you at home!
More below normal snowfall for at least another 8 days .. Loving this winter !!
I checked my records today, last year after This date we plowed 5 times in January and 6 times in febuary, that’s 2 inches or more for each plow… If the models are right and we don’t get much snow the next few weeks, this could be a season to remember for us snowplowers…
Hey skywatchers –
The Quadrantids meteor shower will happen tonight. It’s supposed to start around 10pm and only last a couple of hours. 80-200 per hour peak. It’s asteroid debris and not comet debris so they should be larger and brighter. Look to the right of the big dipper.
Good luck!
Yeah, I’m excited to have clear skies! Haven’t had many, but tonight with the mild temps looks perfect!
The CFSv2 has been showing warm for some time now but today is has hints of a possible cool down at the end of the month. We shall see.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif
This is for the next two weeks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif
Slim
Blowtorch for the next 3 weeks and then a slight cool down the last week of January appears to be the model consensus at this time.
Contrast this to a week or two ago when everyone thought January was going to start with an Arctic blast.
Michael, probably not a quick or easy question to answer, maybe a blog post for someday, but have you done much reading or studying on the correlation between our weather and the solar cycle? I’ve read bits and pieces her and there and there is still much to learn, but there seems to be evidence mounting to suggest the solar cycle (every 11 years) does seem to play a role in the many faucets of our weather here on earth. Wide open question I know, but something I’ve always taken interest in.
I’m curious about that too. Bill had a blog post awhile back about the lack of sun spots lately.
Yesterday Kent county was in a WWA and the total snow fall here was 0.8” Here at my house I have .7” of snow on the ground. The seasonal total here at Grand Rapids is now at 18.4” The snow drought continues. While we are now at 24 days in a row of above average temperatures not long ago Grand Rapids had 47 days in a row of above average temperatures from December 22nd 2005 to February 7th 2006.
Slim
I was kinda wondering why the WWA. We ended up with about 0.5 inches, hard to measure that small of an amount. The roads were for the most part clear except for the 0.8 inches of salt they dumped all over the place. Guess they have stock piles to get rid of?
Not sure if it still holds, but at one time money for the winter was based on the total snow fall for the winter and what ranking each county was in the state. Here in my area main roads were just wet but side roads had that little bit of snow on then. My road is still snow covered at this time.
Slim
There were WWAs to our west and east, but none for us. The roads were iced over last night and this morning.
Slim how did that Winter of 2005-2006 play out? Sounds a lot like this winter.
That winter there was no long lasting cold from mid December to April the total snow fall from mid December to April 23.3″ The total for the winter season was 69.2″ but 17.3″ came in November and 25.9″ came in the first two weeks of December.
slim
Sounds like this year without the December snow!
Get out your golf clubs! Sounds like several local courses may be open this weekend.
Today is also the 24th consecutive warm day in a row. It looks like there’s a chance this streak could hit 30 or 40 days with the way the forecast models are shaping up!