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Warming Trend – Weather History

Yesterday we had a high of 73° and the low was 47°.  For the rest of the week, we will see no rain and warming temperatures back into the 80s.  Sunset tonight will be at 7:54 pm.


Weather History for SW Michigan

September 11

1986: Clusters of thunderstorms moving along a stalled front bring record rains to Lower Michigan for the second straight day. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches result in extreme flooding and contribute to making September 1986 the wettest month on record across the area.

2013: A severe thunderstorm with wind gusts of up to 80 mph brought down numerous trees and power lines in Albion, Michigan. Albion college was closed for several days due to all the wind damage and loss of power.

September 12

1986: From 6 to 12 inches of rain in three days resulted in record flooding from Muskegon to Saginaw. The flooding was worsened by the collapse of several dams. Ten people were killed and damage estimates approached half a billion dollars.

September 13

1939: A record-breaking heat wave begins with the temperature hitting 95 degrees at Grand Rapids.

1952: Muskegon reaches 92 degrees for their third record high temperature in a row.

1962: A severe thunderstorm struck Lansing with wind gusts over 65 mph, producing light damage across the city.

2008: Five tornadoes strike southern Lower Michigan. Four of the tornadoes were spawned by one thunderstorm. A car dealership and a restaurant were damaged in Paw Paw and weak tornadoes damaged trees near Mattawan in Allegan County, Millers Corner in Kalamazoo County, and Brookfield in Eaton County. Several buildings had roof damage from a tornado that struck Plymouth in Wayne County.

September 14

1928: Tornadoes struck across Lower Michigan. A tornado hit Mason County south of Scottville damaging at least three homes and injuring two people. The roof of one home was carried over a mile. Another tornado destroyed several barns, killing cattle about 2 miles south of Cedar Springs in Kent County. What may have been a tornado took part of the roof off a factory and warehouse in Grand Rapids.

2008: Ten days after the remnants of Hurricane Gustav drenched southern Lower Michigan, the remnants of Hurricane Ike brought another round of heavy rain. 3 to 6 inches of rain caused flooding, with some road washouts.

September 15

1939: A four-day heat wave peaks across western Michigan with Grand Rapids hitting 97 degrees and Lansing 94 degrees.

September 16

1886: A swarm of tornadoes hits southern Lower Michigan from late morning into the early afternoon. At least ten separate tornadoes struck, causing damage in Cass, Livingston, Kalamazoo, Eaton, and Clinton Counties. One person was killed and another injured in a tornado that hit Brighton.

1899: Grand Rapids records a high of 98 degrees, setting the record for its hottest September temperature, which would be tied on September 2, 1913.

September 17

1972: A severe thunderstorm produces two tornadoes. The first damages a car six miles northeast of Kalamazoo. The second damages a house three miles south of Middleville.

1973: It was a record cool day as clouds and rain held high temperatures in the 40s across western Michigan. The high of 47 degrees this afternoon at Grand Rapids would be followed by a record low of 35 degrees the next morning.

1977: Two tornadoes struck Lower Michigan. One person was injured in the town of Flushing in Genesee County. Thirty homes and a library sustained heavy damage there. Another tornado hit near Westphalia in Clinton County, damaging a house and a garage.


Weather History for SE Michigan

September 11

On September 11, 2000, widespread, severe urban flooding resulted in a Presidential Disaster Declaration for Wayne County. The communities most severely affected included Allen Park, Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Ecorse, Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Riverview, Southgate, Taylor, Van Buren Township, Wyandotte, and Wayne. Over 15,000 residences and other structures in Wayne County suffered at least some flood damage. Numerous motorists had to be rescued from their stalled and stranded vehicles. The Governor of Michigan estimated $19 million in personal property damage in Wayne County but said that estimate was conservative.

Also on September 11, 1986, Saginaw received 4.55 inches of rainfall. The previous day (September 10, 1986), Saginaw had received 5.51 inches of rainfall. This makes a two-day total of 10.06 inches of rainfall in Saginaw – almost three times the amount of rainfall that Saginaw normally receives throughout the entire month.

September 12

On September 12, 1986, a 3-day period of persistant rainfall that caused the worst flooding in 50 years finally ended, which resulted in damage between 400 and 500 million dollars.

September 13

On September 13, 2019, severe storms tracked across the Metro Detroit and Thumb regions. Hail up to golf ball size was observed in southwest Oakland County while a wind gust of 72 mph was measured over the Detroit River.

On September 13, 2008, tropical rains started to fall over Southeast Lower Michigan. In about 48 hours from the evening of September 12 to the evening of September 14, 3 to 6 inches of rain fell. The rain was in part due to a slow-moving cold front that crossed Lower Michigan associated with moisture from a Pacific tropical storm and the remnants directly from Hurricane Ike that struck the Texas coast on September 12.

Also on September 13, 1962, in Wayne county, there were wind gusts of 73 mph along with a thunderstorm.

September 14

On September 14, 1996, a pressure of 993mb was recorded in the “eye” of an intense storm system that formed over Lake Huron that had many uncanny similarities to a tropical hurricane. In fact, this storm was nicknamed the “Huroncane”. By 2 PM on this day, the “eye” of this storm measured 20 miles across and was ringed by tall cumulus clouds resembling an eyewall of a normal hurricane. At one point, this storm even produced tropical storm force winds (39-73mph).

September 15

On September 15, 1939, the temperature rose to a record 100 degrees in Detroit for the day. This was the highest temperature record for the whole month of September.

September 16

On September 16, 1955, Flint experienced a record high of 90 degrees. This marked the beginning of a 3-day record high streak in Flint, with the 17th and the 18th experiencing temperatures of 94 and 93 degrees respectively.

September 17

On September 17, 1974, an F2 tornado hit Genesee County at 11:05 pm. This tornado cost $25,000 in damages.


Forecast Discussion

-- Dry through Friday --

As the upper low that has plagued the area over the past three days
rotates east, we will see the upper ridge in its wake build over the
region. This will act to keep the area dry through Friday.

We do see a weak backdoor cold front slip through the area today.
This occurs as the low level NE flow in the transition from the low
to the ridge pushes it through the area. The atmosphere is too dry
for any rain to occur with it. There may just be a few clouds that
accompany it. The main effect of this front will be to delay the
warmth building in.

As the ridge does build overhead, and the southerly flow picks up on
Thursday, we will see temperatures warm a bit back into the 80s as
850 mb temperatures warm into the mid teens C.

-- Multiple rain chances for the weekend --

A trend we are seeing for the weekend is a bit better potential for
some rain through the weekend at times.

The past couple of days it appeared that the upper ridge that will
be here for the Wed-Fri time frame would remain in some form, and
rain chances would stay mostly north of the area. It now looks like
that the ridge will get suppressed a bit more, and we will be a
little closer to the jet.

The first chance of rain now looks to come in late Friday night and
Saturday morning. This will be associated with a short wave that
will be trying to ride the ridge, and will weaken as it does so.
This may not be a great chance of rain as the atmosphere will have
to saturate, but it will help to prime the pump on future rain
chances.

We will see additional rain chances then through Monday as
additional short waves ride through the area. Each of these will be
encountering better moisture, and better instability. We will have
to watch this scenario, as if enough instability can build out ahead
of these short waves, deep layer shear will likely be a bit
favorable with the better mid level winds nearby.

It does look like the ridge will eventually strengthen over the
region toward Tuesday. This change comes as the upper trough digs
over the western U.S., and builds the ridge here. This will bring
drier and warmer air to the area.
newest oldest
Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Looks like we may get at least five consecutive days with highs 10 degrees above average. That’s pretty remarkable.

Slim

In looking at the weather history above and seeing the write up on September 16, 1899 and the reported record high of 98. However when I looked at the daily reports for September 1899 the high for the 16th is missing. I looked this up because the low on the 14th was 31 so I wanted to see how the 14 and 15 turned out for highs. Well the high for the 14th was 63 for the 15th it was reported as 71 and then missing for the 16th and for the 17th it was reported as 82. The reposted… Read more »

Slim

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/52 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 42% of the time. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 54 At the current time it is clear and 59 here in MBY while it is a warmer 62 at GRR. For today the average H/L remains at 75/54 the record high of 95 was set in 1939 and the record low of 31 was set way back in 1899 it got down to 33 in 1975. The next week looks to be dry and very… Read more »