Rain Passed to the north and south of us yesterday. We managed only .01 of an inch. Temperatures yesterday were a high of 86° and a low of 53°. We a entering an extended period of warm to hot temperatures over the next week. It will reach 90° on Sunday and the mid-90s the rest of the week. Chance of rain is possible during this period but not overwhelming.
Weather History
1894: A week-long heat wave was underway with temperatures at or above 90 degrees across much of the region from June 10th to June 16th. Grand Rapids hit 95 degrees on the 13th, 96 degrees on the 14th, and 97 degrees on the 15th.
1991: A tornado injures one person and damages several homes east of Jackson.
On June 14, 1966, an F2 tornado hit Wayne County and caused $3,000 in damage.
1903: Major flash flooding along Willow Creek destroyed a significant portion of Heppner, Oregon on this day. With a death toll of 247 people, it remains the deadliest natural disaster in Oregon.
Forecast Discussion
- Much quieter weather through Saturday High pressure is building in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday. There is even a secondary dew point boundary that has been settling south through the area this morning. Ahead of this dew point boundary, some fog has formed with some moisture pooling ahead of it, and with a moist boundary layer from the rain down south last evening. This looks to be temporary early this morning, and then burn off/lift into a fair weather cumulus deck. We can not rule out a brief sprinkle/shower over the eastern portion of the area this afternoon. This would be the result of some diurnal troughing over the warmer land mass between the cooler lakes, along with some residual low level moisture. It seems like it is a legitimate "silent 10 percent". The moisture will eventually mix out, and then dissipate completely after sunset tonight. Saturday will see much less in the way of cloud cover with drier air expected. - Hot and Humid Sunday and into Next Week No big changes in thinking tonight when it comes to the heat that is expected to arrive this weekend and persist into next week. There are differences though between the operation GFS and ECWMF. The ECMWF is much more bullish on the ridging with 500mb heights climbing into the upper 590s. Correspondingly. the ECMWF has warmer 850mb temperatures, reaching +21C to +22C. The GFS is more on the order of +18C to +20C. Bottom line though is it will be hot with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s most days between Sunday and Thursday of next week. If the ECWMF is what verifies we could be more mid 90s most days. Surface dew points look to easily be in the upper 60s to lower 70s which will push heat indices towards 100 at times. Heat Advisory criteria is 100 degrees, so we will make a run at this level on a couple of days. Again, if the ECWMF verifies it could be multiple days at or above heat indices of 100. Summer weather is on the way. - A Few Chances for Showers/Thunderstorms Sunday and into Next Week We cannot rule out a couple of chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period. Once again, this very much comes down to differences in the GFS and ECWMF. In the GFS being not as bullish on the ridge, it allows a front to be closer to us versus well off to the north and west. The first opportunity for precipitation will come Sunday into Sunday night as a wave moves through the Great Lakes aloft. Not a slam dunk, but chances for showers and storms it appears. Confidence in precipitation is not high Sunday through Thursday given the model disparity. The next chance for showers and storms will come out on Wednesday into Thursday as the boundary off to our north sags into the area in the GFS. As mentioned above, model differences make this a low confidence forecast. Bottom line, hot and humid with a few chances for storms meaning it will feel very summer like.
A week long taste of “Summet” on the way. We’ll take what we can get this year.
after a stellar Saturday, the sfc high will move east and a deep southerly flow regime will be established for Sunday and into the middle of next week. The operational models continue to show an unusually strong upper high centered southeast of Lower Michigan. This creates what has been colloquially called the “ring of fire” with occasional, and in this case persistent, MCS activity to the west and north. The operational Canadian and GFS remain in line with one another on the main features with the operational EC being an outlier with stronger upper ridging. However, when looking at the… Read more »
Blowtorch warning! Get ready now
Put on your shorts and tank tops and get out there and enjoy the heat!!! LETS GOOOO!!
Make All Grills Aflamed!!
Looking ridiculously hot coming up. Summer doesn’t officially start for about another week, so would this be called a Spring Heat Wave??
During this time of the month there have not been a lot of real heat waves. In the past for the 3rd week of June the biggest ones are 1994 5 days and 1987 with 7 days. We shall see how this year plays out. At this time I am taking a wait and see on this.
Slim
Below is the NWS’ definition of a heat wave. If the forecast comes to fruition, it will clearly meet the criteria. “A heat wave is a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days. Heat waves can occur with or without high humidity. They have potential to cover a large area, exposing a high number of people to hazardous heat.” And just for fun, this is The Weather Channel’s definition: “A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather, which can mean different conditions depending on the region, as it is compared to average temperatures.… Read more »
In our area the 3 day rule is the one to go by. I guess in parts of Michigan 3 days in the upper 80’s would work.
Slim
With highs being forecasted in the mid 90’s next week and low in the low to mid 70’s will there be any new records set? At Grand Rapids the record highs and the warmest lows are. For Monday 95 for the high 73 for the low. For Tuesday 96 and 73 and for Wednesday 98 and 77. The record for the 19th looks safe. The 17th and 18 could be closer.
Slim
Happy Flag day when I was young this was a bigger day than it is at this time. Back then many people would put their flag out in the front of their house. The overnight low here in MBY was 61. There was no rainfall. The storms yesterday formed to the SE of here. The current temperature is 61 with clear skies
Slim
We have a flag out year-round attached to the house. Generally have to change to a new one every year. I have an old flag framed in the house that has 48 stars.
And for those wondering, many VFWs and American Legions have drop boxes for old flags so they can be given a proper disposal ceremony.
We have one downtown – they have great fish frys on Fridays!
The official H/L yesterday was 87/67 there was 0.07” of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 39MPH out of the SW. The sun was out 63% of the time. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 96 was set in 1894 the coldest high was 56 in 1947. The record low is 38 set in 1978 the warmest minimum is 74 in 1981. The record rainfall is 2.89” in 1972 Last year the H/L was 73/50.
Slim