Yesterday’s high was 69° and the low was 36° with 100% sunshine. We generally are at the beginning of our period of cloudy dreary weather for SW Michigan but high-pressure systems have granted us extended periods of dry sunny weather. According to the CPC, it appears we may continue with warmer than normal temps most of the rest of the month. I can’t help but wonder about the lack of tropical systems in the Pacific and Atlantic playing into this. There is nothing of note in the Eastern and Central Pacific at this time – there are two systems in the Atlantic, TS Lisa moving through the Yucatan Peninsula and Hurricane Martin in the North Central Atlantic which is predicted to move south of Greenland and then head towards Britain.
We will see sunny skies once again today with highs around 70°. Chances of rain increase late tomorrow night with the best chance coming on Saturday. Sunny skies return on Sunday with another dry period in-store through midweek and temps back in the low 60s.
Forecast Discussion
-- Mild Weather Continues with rain chances arriving Friday -- We have one more dry day in this stretch, before rain chances move in on Friday. Center of high pressure at the surface is moving well east of the state this morning. We will remain dry as the upper ridge remains in control of the region for one more day. The winds will start to increase from the South, just reinforcing the warmer air already in place. The chance of rain on Friday will develop as we see a low level jet wind core nudge into the area ahead of the developing storm to our west. The nose of this jet will help to focus shower development, with even a slight chance of some thunder. The thunder threat comes with elevated instability present as 925 mb based LI`s and higher up are slightly negative. This should move through, with a short break in the rain Friday night. -- Very windy with some rain Saturday with strong fall system -- We will see the system intensify fairly quickly on Saturday as the main wave and jet streak lifts to the NE toward the western Great Lakes. The mid level low takes on a negative tilt and closes off as it lifts into WI, the UP, and eventually Ontario quickly Saturday evening. We see another 70 knot low level jet ahead of this strong mid level low. This will help develop more rain just out ahead of the sfc cold front that will push through the state fairly quickly. Most models have the front east of our area easily by 00z Sun, with rain clearing out. Thunder potential looks too low at this time, even with the strong dynamics in place with the mid level low going negative tilt. Instability parameters all are just a bit too stable to support thunder for the time being. Part of this is that the dew points are just not that high, with 50s expected. Even without thunder, there is a lot of wind energy available that will have the potential to be tapped and brought to the surface in some of the convective shower downdrafts. Wind gusts of 50 mph are not out of the question for most of the area, with 60 mph possible toward Ludington. Once the showers and front move through, we will end up in the dry slot section of the system, with very gusty synoptic winds likely. The system will be trucking to the NE at a good clip, and winds should come down Saturday evening. -- Remaining mild and likely dry for Sunday and beyond -- What is interesting about this very dynamic and strong fall storm, is that we don`t really see much cooler air behind it. We do see 850 mb temps drop from around 15C ahead of the front, down to about 2C behind the front early Sunday morning. This cold pocket lifts NE quickly with the system, and the flow brings 850 mb temps back up to around 9C by later Sunday afternoon. The net change with be temps a few degrees cooler, but temps will remain above average. It looks like for now that we should remain mainly dry from Sunday, right on through next Wednesday. We see the upper ridge settle back over the area. The associated sfc ridge drops down from Canada, and lingers over the region through Wednesday. We are under the ridge, while unsettled weather remains in place around us. Temperatures will remain mild with the upper ridge overhead.
A positive PNA and blocking in the SE and East coast = a cold and snowy winter for us! Get ready to rock!
See, this is why I don’t make weather predictions. Two weeks ago, I said that I thought we were done with 70-degree days for this year. Oops.
Washed all the cars today in shorts, sleeveless shirt, and bare feet. Can’t say I’ve done that very often in November! I believe the missing words would be “Wow! Just Wow!”
Winds 50+ Saturday coming good thing to get the yard picked up …power outrages not out of the question…INDY
Being a huge Wimter fan and not for heat as most know that on here this weather this week I could go with year around and do away with Winter just saying its so beautiful outside I may just get the sprinkler back out .. INDY
These warm temps to start November are sure nice. However I do hope we can see a pattern change as we get closer to winter but not holding my breath. Winters have been kind of boring the past couple years. Bring on a blizzard! As I stated, Ionia County has not seen a winter storm watch or warning in 2 years. Near Saginaw it’s been 3 years which is pretty remarkable honestly.
Wow – what a start to November! I was at the Michigan/MSU game Sat night and it was a nice evening as well. Go Blue!
I know leaf color info has been posted here before, but what about the timing of leaves falling from the trees? More specifically, the last two years at least, my oak trees (14 large ones in the front yard) didn’t finish shedding their leaves until well past the opening of deer season on Nov. 15th. This year, if Saturday is windy, most of the leaves will be down by Nov. 5.
Got to go out now and harvest last night’s leaf crop.
What a great world series game last night. At first, I was not happy that Cristian Javier was pulled from the game while throwing a no hitter, but I understand why. And it was fun watching history being made. Now on the great November weather we are having. Her at Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 67/38 there was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. It is not often that we get 100% sunshine in November. The overnight low here in MBY was 42 and the current reading is 43 with clear skies. For today the record… Read more »
Agreed. It would likely be his final appearance in the Series. Let him pitch!
This has been a very sunny November so far. Usually I think of November as one of the cloudiest months, so this is very welcoming
On average Grand Rapids in November has around 27% of possible sunshine. The sunniest so far is 57% in 1939 and in 1992 there was just 5% of possible sunshine. That was the cloudiest month ever at GR. December is the cloudiest month at GR with just 21% of possible sunshine. While October seemed sunny while there was 49% of possible sunshine, the average for October is 43%
Slim
If this sunny warm pattern continues through November then it will be interesting to see what Lake Michigan’s surface temp will be in December. Maybe good conditions for lake effect if we get a cold blast in December
I would love a significant lake effect event. Bring it!
I’m sure it’s connected somehow. Isn’t everything (butterfly effect)? The tropics sure have been relatively quiet since Ian. Ian was more than enough for one season.
It may not happen but I wonder if this is the pattern that we will have for the start of this winter season? And that could lead to a very mild winter we shall see.
Slim