After a beautiful day yesterday chances of rain and storms will ramp up again this morning into this afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop in the afternoon. Winds and waves on Lake Michigan will increase considerably today and result in dangerous swimming and boating conditions. Fair weather is forecast Friday through the weekend into next week as we have several dry days in store, temperatures Sunday and Monday may rise into the mid-80s.
SPC Forecast
Grand Rapids Forecast
8 17 grrWPC Forecast
NHC Atlantic
NHC Eastern Pacific
NHC West Pacific
U.S.A and Global Events for August 17th:
1899: Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was affected by Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. San Ciriaco is also the longest-lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, continuing for 28 days. On August 17, the hurricane turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina on the following day. San Ciriaco remains the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the Outer Banks since 1899.
1946: An estimated F-4 tornado killed 11 people and injured 100 others in the Mankato, Minnesota area around 6:52 PM. The deaths and most of the injuries occurred in the complete destruction of the 26 cabins at the Green Gables tourist camp, 3 miles southwest of Mankato. A 27-ton road grader was reportedly hurled about 100 feet. Another tornado an hour later destroys downtown Wells, Minnesota.
1969: The music festival, known as Woodstock, should have ended on this day. Jimi Hendrix, the last act to perform, was delayed due to rain on Sunday evening. Jimi Hendrix took the stage at 8:30 a.m. Monday morning. Click HERE for more information from the History Channel.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Forecast concerns deal with convection along a cold front currently moving across Wisconsin toward Lower MI. No big changes to the going forecast. CAMs are handling the convection pretty well...and have been for a few days. That leads us to high confidence we`ll see the line of showers and thunderstorms move across the cwa today. The leading edge should be approaching LDM around 10z, then move southeastward and exit the cwa by 21z. Models continue to advertise a narrow ribbon of high precipitable water values along/ahead of the front. Thus, we`re likely to see brief periods of heavy rainfall in the thunderstorms; our QPF continues to be around a half inch. HREF local probability matched mean suggests a bit less than a half inch south of I-96, but perhaps a bit more than a half inch north of I-96. The storms will weaken a bit as they move inland this morning due to limited instability. As such, we`re not anticipating severe storms this morning. However, as some heating occurs during the early afternoon, a few of the storms could take advantage of that and when combined with bulk shear values around 45 knots, could become strong to perhaps severe. It that were to occur, it would most likely be across the southeast cwa this afternoon. Strong winds are the main threat. SPC maintains the Slight Risk for much of the cwa today. A strong short wave will ride in on the heels of the cold front. The CAMs continue to hint at isolated to scattered convection redeveloping this afternoon behind the front. Mid level lapse rates are more impressive this afternoon than ahead of the front, likely due to some clearing behind the front heating the surface and combining with the cooler temps aloft brought in with the trough. All of the precipitation should end around 00z. Clear skies will lead to cool temperatures tonight with lows in the lower 50s with perhaps some upper 40s in some spots. Friday will be really pleasant with highs in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the 50s. Enjoy it while you can, because much warmer temperatures are on the way. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) The main focus in the long term continues to be the heat that is poised to affect the area for a few days. The main challenge is to identify when the heat may break, and when/if there will be any rain chances that accompany this transition. There is good agreement amongst most of the models and their ensemble members, that the heat will really move in for Sunday, and last at least into Tuesday. Saturday looks to be a comfortable day with high pressure over the area, and a fresh cool air mass from Canada still in place behind the system that moves through today. As that ridge moves to our east on Sunday, we will see quite a warm elevated mixed layer advect in on the backside of the high. 850 mb temperatures of 20C are forecast to move overhead, supporting highs well into the 80s and approaching 90F. The trend in the latest sets of data indicate that the very warm to hot weather will persist into Tuesday. The upper ridge centered SW of the area is forecast to dominate the pattern, as it builds in response to the upper energy near the Western U.S. Coast. Even Tropical Storm/Hurricane Hilary could assist in building the ridge as it is absorbed by the upper energy near the West Coast. The jet stream will be pushed well north into Canada, and keep all of the short wave activity up there also. This will help to keep rain chances to near zero. Around the Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame, there does look to be an opportunity for the heat to break over the area. The upper ridge builds north across the Dakotas in response to the western lows. There is some decent agreement that the building of the ridge to our west will allow for some height falls here, and for a backdoor cold front to slip through the area. Rain chances are not zero, but they are not much higher than zero with the short wave activity staying north of the area. 850 mb temps look to drop into the mid teens C, supporting highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s after Tuesday. A bit of uncertainty does creep into the forecast for Tuesday night and beyond with regards to rain chances. Some of the models/ ensemble members indicate some rain possible at times. This looks like it would be potential weak waves that would ride along the front that drops south of the area. These rain chances look limited right now with the main jet stream and more organized short waves staying north of the area.
These are some impressive gusts!
There is a movie on Hulu called Supercell. If I had to describe it, it’s a low budget ripoff of Twister. I watched it so you don’t have to. It’s not very good at all.
Lol!!! Thanks for sharing Mark!!!
We got rid of Hulu. Miss the Murders in the apt with Steven Martin and Martin Short
That’s a great show! A new season just started. I’m going to wait until all the episodes are released so I can binge them.
0.75” of rain from this line at my house. All in a relatively short amount of time. That makes 3.35” in the past couple events.
So after these storms are we done for the day? I don’t see much off to the west of us.
It appears that way. It may even become sunny for the westsiders.
Now it can dry out, so I can mow hopefully tomorrow before it gets warm. LOL!!!
The line has arrived here. Moderate to heavy rain for the past 10 or so minutes, along with occasional lightning. Very little breeze. It’s an old school thundershower.
Yes.. that’s what we had here too a bit ago.
It’s been raining for an hour here. It has eased up to a gentle shower. More standing water out back. We have received a decent amount of rain.
It was a pleasant sunny day yesterday with 96% of possible sunshine the official H/L was 79/52. There were 0 HDD’s and just 1 CDD’s The highest wind gust was 22 MPH out of the west. For today the average H/L is 81/61 the record high of 98 was set in 1988 and the record low of 45 was set in 1898 and 1976. The record rain fall of 1.94” fell in 1995. Last year the H/L was 82/58 and there was no rain fall.
Slim
At this time there is a line of showers to the NW of west Michigan pushing to the SE. That line is the best chance of showers for most of the next week or so. Highs today and tomorrow should top out in the lower 70’s In fact Friday with low dew point it may feel on the very cool side. With lows tonight and Friday overnight in the low 50’s there will be a couple of days of “don’t have to” weather that is don’t have to have the heat on and don’t have to have the air on.… Read more »
Bring on the rain! Just another typical below normal temp summer day on tap! Incredible!