I will move our weekly weather history reports to Thursday due to the chances of severe weather today. We currently have 65° at 6 am. A few rounds of showers and storms will pass through the region this afternoon and tonight. Our main risk will be for high winds with gusts to 60 mph and 1-inch hail at 15 and 5% chances respectively. We have one more warm day in store with highs near 70. Yesterday we reached 69° with a low of 31°.
Convective Outlook
...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley... An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the northern Plains today as an associated upper-level trough moves through the central Plains. This trough will take on a negative tilt during the day as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. To the east of the mid-level jet, a corridor of moderate instability will develop across eastern Missouri and western Illinois by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will quickly develop about that time along a cold front further west. These storms will likely obtain a wind damage and large hail threat as the convection organizes into a squall line. Severe thunderstorms will also likely develop ahead of the line during the afternoon, with all storms merging into a severe MCS by early evening. The greatest severe threat is expected with discrete cells that develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon. These storms will likely become supercellular and be associated with a tornado threat, large hail and wind damage. RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis at 20Z across southern Illinois and far western Kentucky have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 0-6 km shear is forecast to strengthen markedly during the mid afternoon as the upper-level system pivots into the region. This will create conditions very favorable for supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range should support a potential for strong tornadoes. Supercells will also be capable of large hail and wind damage. Further west, the squall line along the front should gradually intensify as instability increases during the afternoon. Widespread wind damage appears likely with the more intense parts of the squall line. Large hail may occur with the stronger cells embedded in the line. The wind-damage threat will continue into early to mid evening as the line moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley, with the severe threat eventually become more isolated further to the east.
Forecast Discussion
- Scattered showers with isolated storms this morning The warm front continues to lift northward with underwhelming convection overnight into Wednesday morning. A very robust line of showers and storms continues to trek across Wisconsin. This line will move across Lake Michigan and reach Michigan shores around sunrise. However as it reaches Michigan it will have move out ahead of the frontal system and be fairly weak. Isolated storms remain possible, especially near Muskegon. - Strong to severe storms possible midday to tonight Several chances for strong to severe storms today. The first will be from the approach of a meso vortex from the south after 15Z. CAPE values continue to look underwhelming and struggle to reach 1000 J/kg. There is some shear, especially with the low level jet. However, the cloudy skies will stifle any surface based instability and keep temperatures below 70F. This lack of instability will inhibit convection and make it harder to fuel convection. The areas which have the best chance will be the regions closer to the strongest helicity, along with CAPE. This will be between 16Z and 21Z in areas along and south of the I 94 corridor west of I 69. There is some potential for stronger thunderstorms with the main threat being large hail and damaging winds. With strong advection of moisture, localized heavy rainfall is possible. This first round will destabilize the atmosphere, preparing for the second round of showers and thunderstorms between 21Z Wednesday and 02Z Thursday. This looks to have a more bowing structure of Showers and thunderstorms and will be more widespread moving across the Lower Peninsula. This will coincide with an increase of SFC based CAPE with damaging winds possible. Expect those showers and storms to exit the region mid to late Wednesday evening. - Gusty winds Thursday Michigan will see the arrival of a cold frontal rain band overnight into Thursday. This will bring strong gusty winds with cold drier air Thursday morning. The strong air aloft fueled by the increased pressure gradient will bring 40 to 45 mph wind gusts Thursday. These winds could be strong enough to cause power outages. Those winds will be due to mixing down from aloft so once the sunsets the winds will subside. A wind advisory may be needed. - Cooler weather ahead The cold air that is ushered into the region will drop temperatures through the weekend, with lows on Sunday morning still on track to be in the 20s. Saturday has the lowest Max T`s, in the upper 30s to low 40s.
If you want to see todays post click on next post above right.
Slim
A little chilly, but a beautiful cloud-free morning.
Middle of April and its in the mid 30’s outside wow …InDY
It’s now been a whopping 62 days since GR has received more than a measly 2″ of snow. And the cold weather crazies are still acting like it’s mid January. What a joke! Winter has been over for months!
Wow, just one blowtorch after another! It looks like we will be seeing another big period of warmth again in a week or less.
Furnace still running since September please help?? InDY
There were temps in the 70s and 80s in October. You may need to invest in some insulation.
Well looking at my bill it shows the furnace running must of been some cool nights crazzy….InDY
Do you live outside? LOL
The real question is just where do YOU live????
Slim
The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 67. It has reached 67 on 3 days this year so far and that is the warmest it has official been this year in GR so far. The average date of the 1st 70 day at GR is April 4th the latest date is May 3, 1950. There was 0.77″ of rain fall in MBY yesterday and the overnight low here fell to 34 at this time with clear skies it it 36. While there is a wind advisory for today at this time it is not windy at all. But it still… Read more »
Looks like we *might* get back into a warmer pattern by next weekend (so still 10 days out, we will see). But if this is the case then we could officially reach 70 before May 3.
A lot of “unofficial” reporters have reached 70 at least once this year. Reminds me of 2014 when I reached 90 at my house several times but the airport only reached 89, so we had no official 90 degree days that summer even though I reached 90 at my house
Sorry, Nathan while it the readings that you get in your back yard do not count as “official” just like the snow fall amount that Indy or Rocky or you or I record in the winter time are not “official” and you know there is a reason for that. Also it very well might be several degrees warmer or cooler in your yard then just a short distance away. Just like there could be more snow fall at Indy’s house that at Mookies location (where ever that is)
Slim
Yes I definitely agree that there needs to be one official source to keep track of weather history (the GRR NWS).
Just an observation that much of the area has reached 70 this year. But of course, not official at GR yet.
I understand both sides. The official temp is recorded at the NWS offices. But if the official temp is 60 at the Lansing airport and my thermometer at my house says 58, the temp is still 58 at my house.
Alert>>>>incredible cold is coming this weekend! Get prepared now!
85 and mostly sunny in Clearwater, at the moment.
A little too warm for me, but not bad!
Not a lot of lightning with the activity to our south and southwest. We shall see if that changes as it moves closer. Would be nice to get even just a garden variety thunderstorm.
I love it when the warm weather nuts started saying winter was over and nice warm Spring temps will be right around the corner! Well 2 months later it may actually happen! What a joke!
People should know better than to get excited about solid warm weather in Michigan until Mid-Late April.
+ 100 million!
I love it when cold weather crazies say we are going to get 100 inches of snow every winter and we are always two to four feet short of that! Give me a break!!
I predicted 90 inches so only about 1.5 feet off so far!
Still no 70’s in GR! Will we set the record for the latest day hitting 70 degrees?
I just love when Rocky makes these hyperbolic proclamations!
Rocky (Rockford)
Enjoy the nice weather today, because you won’t see another day like this till May! We will be transitioning back to a cool/cold pattern for weeks on end! We are clearly entrenched in a cool pattern with no change in sight! Who would have thought? Wow!
Reply
April 12, 2022 7:33 am
Because, 99 percent of the time they are proven completely WRONG in the next day or so!!
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b4ea0280869baa46799dc75eacef8904785ec43ad2f6fb098355fbc208a55e2c
Too funny, all along I said by the last week of APRIL IT WILL BE CHANGING AND LOW AND BEHOLD THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT MAY HAPPEN! Incredible! Let’s hope by the end of April we will see temps back into the 60’s! We will see what happens! Maybe you can golf again!
You said and I quote: “Enjoy the nice weather today, because you won’t see another day like this till May!” It’s right in your post from yesterday and copied above!
Lol
Hey Andy, let’s see if we get a sunny day with highs in the upper 60’s yet this month of April! It may not happen! Give me a break!
67 degrees – 1.18 inches of rain so far.
So far the official high at Grand Rapids today has been 67. With light rain the last reading at GRR was 63 here at my house it is now 64 with cloudy skies and a light mist
Slim
No thunder here yet, but we’ve a couple of rounds of short duration, heavy rain.
In looking at the lightning tracker map there is some reported SE of Big Rapids and a little more in the Mount Pleasant area. That is it for Michigan there is a lot of lightning to the SW of Michigan but it is a long ways off. So if it holds together than maybe later today we shall see.
Slim
ALERT >>>>get ready for multiple nights of below freezing temps starting late week! Incredible!
Just got an alert on my phone that a Wind Advisory has been issued. This is for wind gusts up to 55mph. I just read the latest Grand Rapids discussion and they have an update on the wind potential and the severe weather potential for later this afternoon. Here is the latest update: The incoming 12z guidance supports at least advisory level winds for Thursday. Very deep mixing in the afternoon should tap the 45 knot winds and may very well make a run at 50 kts. The core of the strongest westerly winds is expected to be from Holland… Read more »
It seems like we’ve had quite a bit of wind over the past couple of months.
Enjoy the last warm day this week! Big cold front rolls through tonight and then we will see a long string of below normal temp days! Definitely a cool Spring pattern! Wow!
High of 38* Monday with the possibility of snow showers blow torch of a Springs we are having not ….Hopefully May will be better I have lots of outside fun planned …InDY
The so called blow torch is all hype! Too funny and yes May will be much better!
The cloud cover may kill our good storm chances this afternoon this seems to happen alot in west Michigan…InDY
Yeah the thick cloud cover and temps stuck in the 60s do not seem too promising. But we will see!
There are some cases where some of the dynamics in place can make up for lack of heating, but it seems in many setups clouds hang around and we don’t get much. I’d love a nice storm to rumble through. We shall see.
Wow, just another super mild morning that feels more like summer. This warm week has been awesome so far!
Well it is the middle of April…lol…InDY
Not weather related…..if you seen the news today of the big fire in Zeeland, that was my business. Unbelievable.
Barry so sorry that you and your staff are going through this.
Wow so sorry to hear. At the very least I heard the building was empty and no one was injured
So sorry to hear that Barry 🙁
I sure hope you have an excellent insurance policy!!
Sorry to hear that Barry.
Slim
NO WAY! I did not see/hear that until now. I’m so sorry Barry.
Barry I saw this on the news. I had no idea it was your business. It good that no one was injured. I will be keeping you in my prayers as you deal with this loss and move forward. Sandy
Check out the forecast in Minot ND? You think we are having a cool Spring, they are still in winter mode! Now that is a monster storm!
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.2361&lon=-101.2961#.Yla4Wy8pDi0
North Dakota is getting hammered with snow! Imagine getting a storm like that in April around here, that would be something!
Crazy!
Ck out the snow map! Off the charts!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=MBX
The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 67 The overnight low at GRR was 60 and that was the low here at my house as well. If it can stay at 60 or above until midnight (it may or may not) then it would be the 2nd warmest minimum for any April 13th at Grand Rapids. At the current time it is 62 here at my house and mostly cloudy.
Slim
Im tracking to rounds of storms today thie first round looks to be non severe the second round we may have severe winds with it and power outrages I suspect a severe weather watch this afternoon for lower Michigan 😀 behind this cold front we go cold with the possibility of accumulating snow Monday yes in the middle of April wow Any thoughts?? InDY
Well if snow does fall, it won’t stick around. Even though it hasn’t really felt like spring for the most part, it certainly looks like spring. Green grass, budding trees, lots of noisy birds, etc.
We are maybe just a little behind in the spring green up for the past few years but still with in the typical spring green up time period.
Slim
Waking up to a nice mild 60F this morning. Yesterday I reached 70 for the first time at my house this year. While Slim says it’s not an official reading, which obviously it isn’t an official reporting station, still doesn’t change the fact that it reached 70. Not sure how Grand Rapids did yesterday. If GR didn’t reach it it’s appears it may be on hold unless it can be squeezed out today. Regardless it’s been great weather before we fall back into the slump again.
I get what you mean. The Lansing temp is measured at the airport, but I am not near the airport.
If GR dosent reach 70 today it will probably be May then the rest of April looks to be below average matter of fact next week looks well below average…. Get on the hoodies …InDY
Who knew!
The official high at GRR was 67. Readings that are taken in your back yard while they are a good representative of the local temperatures they are not official. There are areas where there is a difference of several degrees in a very short distance of each other. Here where I live there is a area on my walks that is noticeable cooler on clear calm evenings then other areas and you can feel the difference. Then in the cities there is the “heat island” there are many nights when it is 10° warmer downtown then here at my house.… Read more »
We shall see if GR can surpass that 67 and get close to 70. Might be hard with all these clouds. And Yeah I got one of those “cool” pockets out by me where it’s colder than the surrounding area as well.